Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 241055 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 655 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and dry high pressure will build in through early this week with a return to more seasonable temperatures by Tuesday. Rain chances will return with the next cold front Wednesday into Thursday. Dry high pressure will build in behind the cold front into Friday with a warming trend through the weekend. && .UPDATE...
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No major changes from the ongoing forecast with this update. Opted to knock highs back a degree or two given the magnitude of cold advection expected today along with a strong subsidence inversion topping the boundary layer. Otherwise, clear skies and very dry air will be in place through the day. Frost potential remains a concern for tonight.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... * Frost potential exists for rural areas, dependent on wind speeds * Mid-level ridging will build across the area today, bringing subsidence and clear skies with it. Closer to the ground, surface high pressure ridging down from south-central Canada will maintain breezy north winds and a supply of unseasonably cold and dry air through the day. Highs will struggle to breach 60F as full sunshine fights sustained cold advection. Tonight, the million dollar question is whether winds will go light enough to permit frost formation. Moist soils, low dewpoints, and clear skies support this notion, but the presence of a pressure gradient over the region courtesy of strengthening surface high pressure in southeast Canada may keep winds just high enough to prevent much frost outside of sheltered locations. Nevertheless, given how early it is in the growing season, I opted to include Inland Pender, Bladen, and Robeson counties in a Frost Advisory to highlight where enough potential exists to warrant precautionary actions. This Advisory may need to be expanded into other largely rural counties away from the coast, but the pressure gradient will be a bit tighter the further south and east you go, so will defer to the day shift to determine if an expansion is needed. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Ridge of high pressure along the east coast will be slowly squeezed out between lingering low pressure well offshore and approaching trough shifting east from the central CONUS Mon through Tues. Should maintain a slightly pinched gradient along and off the coast with lighter winds inland. After a very cool start to the day on Mon, temps will rebound into the 60s, remaining below normal with plenty of sunshine. Column remains dry for the most part, but should see an increase in upper level moisture in the way of cirrus across the area, as well as potential for low clouds or fog early Tues in shallow onshore flow of moisture, mainly along the coast. Cloud cover and winds, mainly along the coast, may be enough to influence temps to keep them slightly less cold, and definitely higher than the previous night. Overall, expect low temps in the low to mid 40s most places, but traditionally cooler places should drop into the 30s. May see some patchy frost in wind sheltered areas. Temps will warm close to normal, pushing 70 with some clouds around. Upper trough will push a cold front toward the Carolinas into Wed with increasing clouds Tues night ahead of it. Should not see much in the way of pcp until Wed. Clouds and WAA will keep overnight lows above normal Tues night, around 50 most places. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Deepening trough approaching from the west will push a cold front into the Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday before shifting offshore. Best moisture return will come later on Wed when winds come around to the SE to S. Models differ with developing wave of low pressure along the front. GFS shows it moving up the coast Wed eve, but ECMWF shows the low deepening as it moves up the just off the coast Thurs eve. Expect potential for some greater QPF depending on when this low tracks up the coast. High pressure will build in behind this system as cold front tracks off the coast late Thurs into Fri. The high remains south of the area with decent westerly downslope flow developing into the weekend with a warming trend taking place. Expect temps to warm from the 60s on Thurs to well into the 70s over the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR is expected through the TAF period with gusty winds remaining a concern through the daylight hours today beneath clear skies. With dry air in place and winds not expected to go light and variable at the terminals, fog is not expected tonight. Extended Outlook...VFR continues from Sunday night through Monday night. Vis/cig restrictions will be possible during early mornings on Tuesday and Wednesday due to weak winds in tandem with moist soils. Additional restrictions are likely for Wednesday and Thursday as a frontal system slowly traverses the area.
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&& .MARINE... Through Tonight... Breezy north winds courtesy of high pressure building into the region will subside somewhat today, with gusts dropping to marginal SCA levels (25 kt) this afternoon and continuing through tonight. Seas will remain elevated through the period with an ESE 5-8 ft swell at 10 sec gradually losing its dominance today as NErly 3-6 ft wind waves develop this morning while ENErly 4-8 ft swells at 10-11 sec swells take over tonight. Monday through Thursday... Small Craft Advisory will be ongoing. High pressure ridging along the east coast will get squeezed out between deepening trough approaching from the west and low pressure well offshore Mon into Tues. Therefore, expect stiff northerly winds to maintain seas above 6 ft through Mon night and could remain above SCA thresholds, especially for outer waters from Cape Fear northward, into Tues aftn. Winds will veer and lighten up some as ridge shifts farther off the coast and cold front approaches on Wed. Winds will shift from E to SE Tues night into Wed and briefly pick up out of the S Wed eve ahead of cold front. Winds will pick up out of the N once again behind the cold front on Thurs. Could be back above SCA thresholds Thurs. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Monday for NCZ087-096-105. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254- 256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...ABW NEAR TERM...ABW SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...ABW MARINE...RGZ/ABW

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