Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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675 FXUS62 KILM 082335 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 635 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cold high pressure will build across the area tonight through the weekend, ushering in the coldest temperatures of the season. A warming trend will follow early next week ahead of the next front. Expect seasonable and dry weather Tuesday as high pressure builds in behind the next cold front. Another system will affect the area during the middle of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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As of 630 PM Thursday...Dewpoints to falling into the 20s and 30s across the area as a cold front is now slipping off the coast. Fairly dense mid clouds may persist for the evening hours but should clear out to the east after midnight as the strongest jet winds at 500 mb pass to our south and east. High pressure centered over the Plains states will build eastward with steady cold advection continuing through the night. Changes with this forecast update were largely minor, focused on upward edits to sky cover this evening, downward adjustments to dewpoints inland behind the front, and downward adjustments to wind speeds/gusts within ~5 miles of the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Thursday...Arctic high pressure will build into the Eastern United States settling across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas during Saturday bringing much colder, below normal temperatures to the area. In fact, during late Friday night into early Saturday morning lows are expected to range from the lower 20s inland to the mid 20s at the coast. These min temperatures are several categories below normal (37 at ILM/CRE, 36 at FLO, and 33 at LBT). Otherwise, zonal flow aloft each day will help to maintain a dry column. Blend of MAV/MET number appears reasonable. A little better radiational cooling appears likely late Saturday night and have undercut guidance at that time as a result. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 400 PM Thursday...Cold dense air in place on Sunday will be overrun with WAA in strong southerly winds just above the surface. This should produce increasing clouds on Sunday and the enhanced coastal troughing should keep the shallow cool dense air in place much of the day. Once the coastal trough/warm front blows inland, warm and moist air will make its way through the forecast area producing increasing temps and dewpoints through late Sunday and into Monday as gradient tightens ahead of cold front. Expect chc of pcp possible associated with coastal trough on Sunday and again as front moves through on Monday. Overall plenty of clouds and increasing chc of pcp Sunday night and Monday. WAA ahead of front will push temps up possible around 70 by Mon aftn. High pressure will build in behind cold front with drier and more seasonable air mass making its way south by Tues, but The cold front may stall before making its way too far south. GFS gives a slightly greater push to front but ECMWF keeps more clouds and potential for pcp over area on Tues. The very broad trough in the mid to upper levels will not give much of push south and its tough to say just how far south it will make it. Low pressure develops along lingering front through mid week and may see a prolonged period of clouds and pcp. Both models show next shortwave pushing strong cold front through as low moves off to the NE scouring out all clouds and pcp on Thurs. Very dry and cold air will make its way south into the Carolinas as high pressure builds in behind cold front on Thurs. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 00Z...High pressure is building in with cold air advection ongoing. Some mid and high clouds from the jet stream will linger. Look for dewpoints to drop into the 20s overnight. Winds will not be too gusty, but will stay above 7 kts. Winds will become gusty a couple of hours after sunrise on Friday with nearly clear skies. Extended Outlook...VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 630 PM EST Thursday...Winds should increase to a solid 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots as a cold front is slipping off the coast now. Review of latest observations and model guidance suggests we may be hard-pressed to reach Small Craft Advisory criteria for more than a few hours late tonight. No changes have been made to the advisory, however based on winds expected to reach no higher than 26-27 knots within the deepening marine boundary layer I have backed off the 30 knot gusts which were earlier in the forecast. The short fetch length with offshore winds should also limit how large seas can get within 20 miles of shore, and downward adjustments have been made there as well. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Thursday...Gusty winds will persist into Friday morning, then as the ridge builds farther east conditions will gradually improve Friday night, and especially during Saturday. A weak coastal trough may develop late in the period with northeast winds returning again on the landward side of the boundary. Seas will be highest Friday morning, especially away from the coast then average less than 3 ft by Saturday and Saturday night. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As OF 400 PM Thursday...Winds initially out of the SE on Sunday with a weak coastal trough in place. Late in the day into Sunday night this feature washes out and a SSW flow gets established and strengthens some. Initially seas will be highest off shore in stronger southerly flow, but as coastal trough and southerly flow pushes inland Sun night into Monday, the seas will ramp up and should reach 3 to 5 ft. Possible SCA thresholds will be reached in outer waters, especially on Monday as gradient tightens ahead of cold front. Winds will veer around to the north by Tues down to 10 to 15 mph with seas diminishing down to 2 to 4 ft.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Friday for AMZ250-252-254- 256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DL

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