Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 212325 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 723 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO MID WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND MOVE TOWARD THE COAST LATE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...CLEAR SKIES SETTLING OVER SE NC AND NE SC. CLOUDS MAY DEBUT VERY LATE INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...AND AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS IN PRE-FRONTAL FLOW. NO MENTIONABLE POP VALUES AT THIS TIME SINCE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WEST WIND TRAJECTORIES OFF THE SURFACE. WILL AWAIT 00Z MODEL SUITES TO ASCERTAIN IF WE MAY NEED A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR DEEPEST INTERIOR ZONES WEST OF I-95. OTHERWISE A PLEASANT EVENING ON TAP WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND STARS THIS EVENING...CLOUD ENCROACHMENT LATE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO REMAIN UNESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD...AS PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TO DOMINATE. MODELS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF TO TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THE SFC...MODELS AGREE TO HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY MONDAY WITH MAINLY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HAVE INDICATED A LOW POP DURING ITS PASSAGE AND POSSIBLY A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THE IMMEDIATE POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO TUE MORNING. STRONG 1035+ MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. STRONG POST-COLD FRONTAL CAA NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE WITH AROUND 80 FOR MONDAY MAX...MID-UPPER 70S FOR TUE MAXES. THE MIN TEMP FORECAST HAS A POTENTIAL BUST WITH GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE NEARLY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES DIFFERENT FROM ONE ANOTHER. FOR NOW WILL TAKE THE EASY WAY OUT AND SELECT A HALFWAY POINT BETWEEN THE 2. NEVERTHELESS...THE FA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 50S FOR LOWS ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE LONG TERM TO FEATURE ON ONSHORE FLOW AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS WELL TO OUR NORTH. MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WHILE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TEMPERS AFTERNOON HIGHS AND KEEPS THEM IN THE 70S. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EMPHATICALLY ON FRIDAY THEN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY. THIS COULD LOWER RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS MID LEVELS DRY. MOISTURE LOOKS TO DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN TO SUPPORT RAINFALL CHANCES ON SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW COMPONENT INTO THE CAROLINAS RETURNS. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 18Z...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS NOW TRACKING AWAY FROM THE REGION...TAKING THE DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. LOOK FOR SCATTERING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BACK TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. NO FOG IS FORECAST. MONDAY...KIND OF AN INTERESTING DAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING IN. THE BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS QUITE NARROW...NEVERTHELESS EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG IT...AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. POSSIBLE INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS BY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A RATHER CONFINED RANGE OF 2-4 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS PLANNED. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOLLOWED BY STRONG RIDGING FROM THE 1035+ MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES. LOOKING AT TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINED WITH CAA SURGE FOR LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SCA...OR AT LEAST A SCEC...FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF SHORT TERM. POST COLD- FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS TO RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND DRIVEN SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES...AND COULD CLIMB TO 3 TO 7 FT DEPENDENT ON THE COASTLINE AND COASTAL WATERS CONFIGURATION. IE. SIG. SEAS TO APPROACH 6 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR DURING SECOND HALF OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NASTY NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO QUASI STATIONARY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NERN U.S. WINDS AND SEAS BOTH EXPECTED TO MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...SAVE FOR PERHAPS WINDS BEING JUST A TAD SHY ON WEDNESDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR MARINE...SHK/DCH/MBB

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