Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 291737 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 132 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...A RATHER NICE SATURDAY FORECAST AS LONG AS ONE DOESN`T MIND THE SUNLIGHT BEING INCREASINGLY FILTERED BY A GROWING CANOPY OF CIRRUS. THE DEWPOINT HAS CREPT UP FROM YESTERDAY AND THE HRRR HAD BEEN SUGGESTING THAT A FEW SHOWERS MATERIALIZE OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SUCCESSIVE RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THIS SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME-ANYTHING THAT FALLS SHOULD BE NON-MEASURABLE SPRINKLES. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BASICALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF COAST RAMBLES INTO THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA REGION. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL ADVECT MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME DIFLUENCE IS ALSO NOTED IN THE AREA. AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE TO ALMOST TWO INCHES...LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE PICTURE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AND AREA WIDE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT A DIFFUSE MID LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SIMILAR PRESSURE PATTERN. OVERALL THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST. WHAT EVENTUALLY REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MEANDERS AROUND THE SOUTHEAST AS A VORT CENTER SEEMINGLY NEVER GOING ANYWHERE. THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN MOIST HOWEVER AND WITH THE USUAL MESOSCALE FEATURES...DECENT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 18Z...MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH MAINLY CONFINED TO THE CIRRUS LEVEL MOST OF THE NIGHT. WILL SHOW LOWERING CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK, MOST PRONOUNCED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. WILL CAP THE FALL TO MVFR THOUGH SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS DO FALL TO IFR AT MYR, CRE, AND EVEN ILM. AT TIME FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE BUT NEXT SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO REFINE. WILL ALSO CARRY VCSH TOWARDS DAYBREAK ALONG SC COAST BUT THE RAIN ITSELF NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER ANY FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...STILL RATHER CHOPPY AND WILL LEAVE SCEC AS-IS IN THE CONTINUED MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FLAG FOR ALL WATERS...EXCEPT BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE ITS SOMEWHAT PROTECTED FROM THE HIGHER NE WIND WAVES DUE TO THE LOWER FETCH FOR THEM TO GROW. THE MODEST 1020+ HIGH BROADLY CENTERED FROM OVER THE NC-VA BORDER TO ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY IN PLACE THRU THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. AT THIS SAME TIME...A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINES THIS MORNING...THAT WILL TRACK NE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT TO A POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE AREA WATERS IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING A TIGHTENED SFC PG ATTM...AND SHOULD REMAIN THIS WAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING PRIOR TO THE LOW EXITING NE OF THE AREA WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE WATERS WILL OBSERVE A SOLID NE TO ENE 15 TO 20 KT WIND TODAY...THAT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE ALREADY RISEN FROM THE INCREASED NE WINDS FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BE LOOKING AT A SOLID 3 TO 5 FT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT LATER TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WATERS BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE A LIMITED FETCH WILL EXIST FOR GROWING NE WIND-DRIVEN WAVES. AN UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND SWELL AT 10-12 SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS SPECTRUM. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FEW HOURS OF NE WINDS EARLY TUESDAY BUT THIS SHOULD BE FLEETING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FEET. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS FOR THE WATERS WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FEATURES. OVERALL EXPECT A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL WITH 1-3 FEET. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MBB

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