-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 260732
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
332 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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DRY AND COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MINIMAL
RAINFALL CHANCES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAY RISE ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 314 AM SUNDAY...ANOTHER COOL EARLY MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF
A CANADIAN AIR MASS RESTS ACROSS THE REGION. RADIATIONAL COOLING
HAS BEEN STRONG MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT ADVANCING MOISTURE ALOFT
FROM A FORMER MCS OVER IOWA AND INDIANA LAST NIGHT IS DIVING SE
INTO THE CAROLINAS BRINGING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS. THIS TREND
WILL LIKELY CAUSE TEMPERATURE READINGS TO LEVEL OFF OR INCREASE
AFTER 9Z THIS MORNING...WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES REALIZED PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK OVER MANY LOCATIONS. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY GIVEN THE EXTENT AND TRAJECTORY OF CLOUDS
AND FAVORED MORE-SO OVER NC. IT APPEARS POSSIBLE WE WILL HAVE TO
INITIALIZE PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EARLY THIS MORNING.

HEIGHTS ALOFT TODAY SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
THAN YESTERDAY...BUT THE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UPSTREAM CLOUDS
MAY SUPPRESS TEMPERATURE CLIMBS...RESULTING IN HIGHS NEAR OR JUST
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND AND LOOK FOR MINIMUMS
TO BE MILDER INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...MOST NOTABLY AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL TAKE
PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A
WARMER AND MOISTER SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DEEPER NW FLOW ALOFT WILL LIGHTEN AS RIDGE SHIFT EAST AND BUILDS
UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL SHUT OFF ANY
MOISTURE OR CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY END OF
PERIOD. MODELS STILL SHOWING A MINOR PERTURBATION IN THE MID
LEVELS ON MONDAY WHICH MAY HELP TO PRODUCE SHWRS INLAND AND
RESIDUAL CLOUDS MOVING OVER AREA THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUES. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MAINLY LOCALIZED CU
BUILD UP EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES INLAND. KEPT LOW END CHC OF LOCALIZED SHWRS
AS SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS TEMPS WARM INTO
THE 80S AND DEWPOINT TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO 60 ESPECIALLY TUES
AFTN. MOISTURE RETURN AND CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT
WITH LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER AS STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A MOISTER RETURN FLOW. THE INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME AFTERNOON CU BUILDING UP ALONG
CONVERGENT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY EACH AFTERNOON.

MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL PRODUCE HEIGHT
RISES UP NEAR 590 DEM ON WED LASTING THROUGH FRI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALSO RISE AND 850 TEMPS REACH AROUND 15C. EXPECT TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A SLIGHT DROP EACH AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE
COAST AS SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS.
BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIRMASS DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE AN ISSUE THIS
MORNING AT KFLO/KLBT...EXCEPT AT KCRE WHERE A PERIOD OF ONSHORE
WINDS LATE YESTERDAY ALLOWED FOR SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE.
ATTM WOULD EXPECT WORSE CASE MVFR VSBYS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS HAVE INDICATED
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NW-NE AFTER THE
INVERSION BREAKS 13-14Z. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AS THE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN BY AFTERNOON. FEW-SCT CUMULUS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING FOG WILL RESTRICT VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AT KFLO/KLBT. OTHERWISE VFR.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 314 AM SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE HAZARDS ON THE WATERS
ASIDE FROM INCREASED BOATING TRAFFIC OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY...NORTHWEST THIS MORNING
THEN TURING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE. A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TODAY WILL
SUPPORT AN ONSHORE TRAJECTORY OF WINDS THROUGH AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. WITH LIGHT WINDS...LONGER PERIOD SE WAVES WILL
BE DETECTABLE...1-3 FEET IN 8 SECOND INTERVALS...MIXED WITH A
LIGHT WIND CHOP TODAY. NO TSTMS OF RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFF SHORE
THROUGH THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A S-SE RETURN FLOW TO SET UP. THE
FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS GRADIENT REMAINS RELAXED. EXPECT WINDS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE VARIABLE EARLY MONDAY BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY BY AFTERNOON REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS. THIS WILL
PRODUCE RATHER BENIGN SEAS 1 TO 3 FT WITH A SLIGHT CHOP WITH SPIKE
IN WINDS EACH AFTN IN SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY... TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL SET UP
AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BACK THROUGH OUR LOCAL WATERS. AS
THE HIGH STRETCHES OUT THROUGH THE WEEK...WINDS WILL GAIN MORE OF
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WITH E-SE WINDS 10 TS OR LESS EXPECTED.
OVERALL EXPECT BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH SEAS
RISING SLIGHTLY IN A PERSISTENT SE PUSH UP TO 2 TO 4 FT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR