Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 231005 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 505 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIND...RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY. RAIN WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTER A BREAK MONDAY. THANKSGIVING DAY TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND COLD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...S/W UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA ATTM...WILL GIVE WAY TO THE APPROACH OF A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROF FROM THE GULF COAST STATES THIS AFTN. MODELS INDICATE A NEGATIVELY TILT TO THIS UPPER S/W TROF AS IT LIFTS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE SFC WARM FRONT SOMEWHAT WELL DISPLACED FROM THE SFC LOW THAT IS MOVING NNE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY DAYBREAK. WHATS LEFT OF A WEAK WEDGE ACROSS THE INLAND CWA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE TO THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT THIS AFTN...WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY PRE-DAWN MON HOURS. STRATIFORM RAINS IE. EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AS MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO ARE UTILIZED. DECENT WIND DIRECTION VEERING PROFILE FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 20-30 KT AT THE SFC...UP TO 60 KT AT 925 MB. WITH WIND SHEAR LIKE THIS...ANY CONVECTION THAT TAPS INTO THESE WINDS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO DUE TO FAVORABLE HELICITIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT IN THE HWO. OVERALL...THE AVBL INSTABILITY...IE. CAPE...WILL LIKELY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FA. AN ABNORMAL DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WILL BE FORECAST THIS PACKAGE...WITH TODAYS HIGHS LIKELY OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND TONIGHTS LOWS LIKELY THIS EVENING WITH STEADY OR EVEN RISING TEMPS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ROUGHLY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOOKING AT 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH DAYBREAK MON. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE AFFECTS OF MASSIVE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES LINGERING MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE THE CATALYST FOR A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY WITH A DRY 24 HOURS OR SO ENSUING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED LATER TUESDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A POTENT 300MB JET WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION BECOMING FAVORABLY PLACED LATER TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WORKS IN TANDEM WITH A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN. I HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD TO ADDRESS. NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH A WARM DAY IN STORE MONDAY COOLING SOME 10-15 DEGREES TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PAINT A WET SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE...WELL OFFSHORE WITH EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WORKS TOGETHER. IT HAS BEEN INTERESTING SEEING HE 850MB ZERO ISOTHERM MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH PRECIPITATION BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LEVELS JUST A BIT TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. I RAISED POPS INCREMENTALLY TO ADDRESS THE GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY AND INCREASED CONFIDENCE. BEYOND THIS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE FOR THE MOST PART. THERE WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY BUT LITTLE ELSE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME SUNDAY MORNING HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR/LIFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE 06Z ISSUANCE PERIOD. LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY FROM PCPN AND FOG...WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG AND/OR AFTER THE WFP THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS AND SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN. AFTER DAYBREAK...LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FURTHER INFILTRATE WITH CEILINGS STEADILY LOWERING THRUOUT THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT/COASTAL FRONT EITHER PUSHES INLAND BEFORE ALTOGETHER LIFTING TO THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING. INCREASING CHANCES FOR STRATIFORM RAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES...LOWERING CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY FROM BOTH PCPN AND FOG WILL COMBINE TO CREATE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL FRONT AND LIFTING WARM FRONT. BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE OF TIMING...HAVE OPTED TO NOT INTRODUCE ATTM. AS FOR WINDS... EXPECT A VEERING TREND COMMENCING WITH VARIABLE OR NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE COASTAL FRONT AND WARM FRONT APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON...AND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AFTER THE WFP THIS EVENING. INITIALLY...SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 5 KT...INCREASING TO 10 KTS DAYTIME SUNDAY MORNING...FURTHER INCREASING TO AROUND 15+ KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. VFR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS COMMENCING LATER THIS MORNING AND LASTING INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. INCREASING ONSHORE E TO SE WINDS DURING TODAY...WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FROM LATE THIS AFTN TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE SFC PG WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS THE PARENT LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DEEPENS AS IT LIFTS TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MON DAYBREAK. LOOKING AT SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. IF WATER TEMPS WERE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE 60S INSTEAD OF THE 50S...A GALE WARNING WOULD PROBABLY HAVE BEEN ISSUED...ALTHOUGH STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF A DECENT UPPER S/W TROF ACROSS THE SE U.S. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD AS ONSHORE WINDS MAKE SURE OF THAT. SIG. SEAS WILL PEAK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...IN THE 8 TO 12 FOOT RANGE...FOLLOWED BY A VERY SLOW SUBSIDING TREND THERE-AFTER IN SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS IN THE 5.0 TO 6.5 SECONDS RANGE. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY VIA A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 20-25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5-8 FEET. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING AND TURN TO THE WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES. SEAS SHOULD FALL TO BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD SETTLING NICELY INTO A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET. ELEMENTS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...FAIRLY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE 20-25 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH DRAMATICALLY THURSDAY AS A WEAK WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST WEDNESDAY WITH 3-7 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. VALUES DROP TO 2-4 FEET THURSDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DCH/SGL

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