Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 300331 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1131 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A warm and humid tropical airmass will remain in place through much of the week across the Carolinas. A tropical depression over the Atlantic will approach the Outer Banks through Tuesday. Another tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico should move across Florida and intensify to a Tropical Cyclone as it moves northeast across the Atl Waters, staying parallel to the Southeast U.S. coast at the end of the week. In the meantime, a a cold front will drop down from the northwest and across and south of the local area. Cooler and drier high pressure will build in behind the front for the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 1105 pm Monday...Still occasionally observe a popcorn type shower pop up over land then disappear at the next volume scan. The nocturnally driven convection over the adjacent Atlantic waters has begun as witnessed by both the KLTX and KMHX 88d radars. By and after midnight, the convection will increase in areal coverage over the Atl waters and at times will sporadically move onshore. Pops remain re-aligned from the previous update and see no need to apply any changes. For land areas, the highest pops will occur along the immediate coast, dropping considerably the further inland one moves. The hiest pops will be in the Good Chance range. Will have to keep an eye on the rainfall amounts and the possibility of changing the Z/R relationship given the now persistent Tropical airmass. Current low temp fcst still aok and see no reason to tweak at this time.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday...Upper low to our south weakens during the period but a pronounced weakness in the height field will remain up the coast. This will keep rain in the forecast with the highest chances along the coast where both sea breeze and convergence resulting from the onshore flow will provide lift. Wednesday may end up seeing a weak low move up the coast, its roots in the convection that is now associated with TD9. Temperatures will be very close to climatology. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...The mid level pattern will feature decent troughing for the first part of the period then transitioning to weak ridging by early next week. Regarding surface features, a cold front remains on track to move across the area Thursday into early Friday and drop well to the south by Saturday. Of course what happens with TD nine remains a wildcard and guidance has shifted once again to a more offshore solution. Once again a wait and see strategy is the best course of action with perhaps more drying than earlier forecasts. Also trended back on temperatures slightly for the weekend as the cooler airmass will have more of an impact with less moisture. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 00Z...Expect current batch of light rain and a few thunderstorms to dissipate in the next hour or two, ending the thread at terminals for the night. There is again the small possibility of a shower or thunderstorm advecting on shore during the night but the probability at individual taf sites is too low for inclusion in the TAFs. Late tonight look for another round of low stratus clouds (IFR) to form in the 08z-10z timeframe. Best potential for br is inland. Cloud bases should lift above 1000 feet around or shortly after 13z. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Chance of IFR/LIFR cigs during the early morning hours Wednesday and Friday. Generally VFR Thu. Moisture increases again Friday and Friday night with areas of MVFR possible in showers. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1100 PM Monday...SCA in effect for the ILM NC Waters only. A SCEC for the ILM SC Waters. Tropical depression 8 to pass by to the north of the ILM coastal waters tonight thru Tuesday night. This will result in a slight tightening of the sfc pg especially across the ILM NC Waters. As a result, have increased the nne-ne winds across the ILM NC Waters. Significant seas will be a combination of Gaston 13 to 15 second period swell, TD #8 pseudo swell in the 7 to 9 second periods and finally locally produced wind driven waves at 3 to 5 second periods. The local wind driven waves addition was negated earlier, but now its addition to the various swell affecting the local waters, will now push significant seas up to 6 ft, ie. SCA criteria. Overall, the dominate periods will fluctuate between Gastons 13 to 15 second period swell and TD #8 7 to 9 second period pseudo swell. Look for an increase in areal coverage of developing nocturnal showers with isolated thunder during the pre-dawn Tue hours...likely peaking prior to sunrise. With a pcpn movement trajectory of ne to sw, parallel, not perpendicular, to the Carolina coasts, this will negate any far inland push to the pcpn. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday...WNA guidance shows a secondary swell front from Gaston arriving Tuesday afternoon but likely only to the tune of 1-2 ft. This may still be enough for a continuation if not an expansion of the cautionary headlines for Tuesday. Wind remains onshore Wednesday though a weak surface low passing by may modify that slightly. Headlines will no longer be in effect as the Gaston swell abates. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...Somewhat of a weak pressure pattern for Thursday before a cold front moves across early Friday. Expect mostly south to southwest winds of 10-15 knots leaning mostly to the lower end of the range. Northeast winds will set up shop after this with the gradient increasing to allow a range of 15-20 knots by Saturday. All of this is dependent on the eventual track and intensity of TD Nine. Significant seas will generally follow the winds increasing from 2-3 feet early to 3-5 feet late.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for SCZ054-056. NC...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for NCZ106-108- 110. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...RAN

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