Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 200802 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 302 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A series of mid level systems will bring unsettled conditions through Monday. The strongest system will move across Sunday and into early Monday. High pressure will build back in toward the middle of next week. A weak cold front will move into the southeast and stall in the region on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Friday...A front will approach from the S and should sneak into the Forecast area before stalling. A weak wave of developing low pressure on the front will skirt the coast as it moves N of the area today. The front will then have a tendency to sag S tonight as the wave moves NE and well offshore. An upper trough will pivot across the Southeast states around an upper low in the Northern Plains through midday. As the upper level support pulls away, the showers are expected to become increasingly diffuse. A large area of showers across the upstate of South Carolina was moving toward the I-95 corridor as of 07z. Will carry highest pops across the I-95 corridor this morning, up to a likely risk across Marlboro and Darlington counties. The risk for showers will decrease as you move eastward toward the coast. The risk will also be highest this morning, but will remain above threshold in most areas into the afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be light. Clouds today should keep temps rather uniform across the area, lower 70s. However, an onshore flow will keep the beaches in the mid and upper 60s. We do not expect measurable rainfall tonight, although will show POPs beginning to increase to slight chance near daybreak for southern and westernmost areas. Can not rule out some spotty drizzle tonight. Model soundings continue to support low stratus and fog development and have included areas of fog in the grids at this time. Widespread fog may turn dense overnight as dewpoints remain elevated. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Warm front lifting to the north on Friday and mid level ridging should allow for waning rain chances as the day wears on. Although cloud cover will decrease slightly it will still be a mostly cloudy afternoon. Despite this most locales should warm to 70 or better. Similarly the clouds will help bring a very mild Friday night with low temperatures just a few degrees shy of seasonable highs. Late Friday night into Saturday the mid level ridging moves offshore while another slug of mositure lifts out of the Gulf of Mexico. Rain chances will increase as the day wears on. Overall amounts may be rather limited however as the flattening ridge does hold on just enough to shunt most of the shortwaves north and west of the local area. This will hold less true heading into Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM Friday...A complex storm system will be on the move to the east/northeast Monday with some residual moisture and forcing aloft continued to advertise good chance pops winding down in the evening. In the wake of this system a broad and deliberate pattern change begins to take shape. Brief mid level ridging moves across Tuesday as strong troughing takes shape out west. This feature will deepen and move east with a full cyclonic flow in place by the end of next week. At the surface, weak high pressure Tuesday and Wednesday will give way to a cold front Thursday. A decent southwest flow of moisture with this system warrants at least some mention of pops for Thursday. Colder temperatures arrive for next weekend with the expectation of below freezing readings (overnight lows) returning for the first time in a while. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 06Z...Clouds lowering and thickening from the W and the S. Expect MVFR ceilings to fill in through 12z throughout with perhaps some sct IFR bases across KFLO and KLBT around daybreak and into the morning hours as some light showers reach the area. These showers may briefly drop visibility to MVFR inland, but prevailing VFR visibility is expected to continue. MVFR ceilings are forecast to hang on through the TAF period inland. At KMYR/KCRE and KILM, ceilings should lift to VFR. Expect widespread stratus and fog to develop tonight at all the TAF sites with a frontal boundary lingering in the area. A look at model soundings support IFR or lower conditions first at KCRE and KMYR and so have introduced there 03/04z. Extended outlook...IFR/LIFR likely developing Fri night and continuing into Sat morning. Tempo MVFR or lower ceilings and visibility expected in showers and thunderstorms Sat afternoon through Sun night. Weekend convection will have the potential for strong to severe wind gusts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Friday...A front, approaching from the S, will move across the waters as a warm front this morning. SE winds will veer to SW with its passage, but speeds will not exceed 10 to 15 kt. Seas of 1 to 2 ft this morning will build to 2 to 3 ft this afternoon. Tonight, the front is expected to sag southward as weak low pressure along the North Carolina coast moves NE and away from the area. A SW or WSW wind should hold across the waters, but wind speeds will be 10 kt or less with seas holding near 2 to 3 ft. There is some concern for sea fog development and reduced visibility late tonight and have included in the gridded forecast at this time and through the day Sat. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Friday...Sea fog may result in reduced visibility through a good portion of the day Sat. A front will be in close on Sat and a wave of surface low pressure is expected to move NE along this front. This will bring widespread showers and some thunderstorms across the waters, especially Sat afternoon. Then on Sun, another wave will be moving along this wavering front and then finally the strongest and deepest area of stacked low pressure will make its way across the area beginning Sun night. Waves of widespread showers and some thunderstorms are expected with each of these features. Convection will have the potential to produce at least gale force gusts Sun and Sun night. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to get underway Sun morning and then to persist into the early part of the work week. Sustained winds will peak around 25 kt with higher wind gusts expected. Seas will peak in the 6 to 9 ft range. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Friday...Low pressure will be departing to the northeast leading to a continuation of strong southwest winds at least for a few hours Monday. Expect speeds of 20-25 knots through midday dropping to 15-20 by the evening. A more offshore flow develops Tuesday with similar speeds of 15-20 knots although leaning toward the lower end of the range most of the day. Significant seas will show a similar trend with very high values early in the period (7-10 feet) dropping considerably Tuesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...RJD/MBB LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...RJD

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