Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 251515 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1115 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may bring heavy rainfall and possible localized flooding into Wednesday. A cold front will approach from the north and should slip into the area late tonight and on Wednesday before stalling and then dissipating by Thursday. The arrival of a stronger cold front this weekend will bring numerous thunderstorms back into the eastern Carolinas. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1115 AM Tuesday...Water vapor imagery shows deepest moisture plume displaced far off the Southeast U.S., however, precipitable water values noted in coastal RAOBs are at or slightly above 2 inches. Sea breeze will be a primary lifting mechanism as weak impulse aloft along the coast is rather channeled. The inland trough is farther east but is not as defined as in past days, but could provide some weak lift as well. In the end expect a typical day in the Carolinas with garden variety widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. Decent insolation thus far today and highs in the lower 90s farther inland to the upper 80s and around 90 coastal areas. Otherwise, a cold front will drift southward into the area tonight. Convection is possible along the boundary thus maintained small POPs into tonight. No major changes were made to the current forecast with the latest update.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...Turning decidedly drier with time during this forecast period as mid/upper trough gets shunted S/SE of the area with some brief ridging taking place aloft. A cold front will be near or just to our S at the start of the period and should dissipate by Thu. Precipitable water values will still be 2 inches or greater to begin the period, trending to 1.5 inches by Wed night and Thu as the mid levels dry significantly. This drier air will result in POPs lowering from N to S through the period. Still can not rule out some heavy rain in showers and thunderstorms Wed, most probable across our southern zones and points south where significant drying will occur last. Slow storm motions heighten the risk for excessive rainfall, at least on a localized basis. As high pressure, centered off the New England coast noses into the area, only a small risk for showers and thunderstorms should remain across southernmost areas Thu with no mentionable POPs slated along and N of a FLO to CRE line. Highs on Wed should be higher N portions of Forecast Area, the result of less convection and more hours of sunshine as compared to communities further S, mid and upper 80s. Typical summertime highs for Thu, upper 80s and lower 90s with mid 80s at the beaches. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...Longwave trough which has affected the eastern CONUS for what seems like most of the summer will re-intensify this weekend after a brief period of warm and dry weather on Friday. On Friday, WAA drives 850mb temps towards 20C, and convective coverage will be even more limited despite highs climbing into the 90s with heat index values once again rising towards 105. Eastern trough re-loads beginning Saturday driving another cold front into the eastern Carolinas. This front will become aligned parallel to the flow through the wknd and into early next week as an anomalous cutoff digs towards GA. Deep moist advection, upper diffluence, and PWATs over 2 inches all suggest periods of heavy rain and tstms Saturday through Monday as more unsettled weather plagues the region. The benefit to the forecasted rainfall is that temps will remain at or below climo, mid to upr 80s, the latter half of the extended. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 12Z...A cold front will sag south and into the area tonight and should be overhead or just to our S Wed morning. Some early morning few/sct stratus poking around early below 1kft. Mid to late afternoon slow moving thunderstorms and showers may reduce ceiling and visibility to MVFR or lower with the higher probability for flight restrictions at the coastal terminals and KFLO. Overnight, the risk for MVFR will be increasing with MVFR BR and ceilings. There is a small chance for IFR stratus developing, mainly at KILM toward morning. Extended Outlook...Lingering MVFR/IFR possible Wed morning. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms Wed. Flight restrictions will be possible in thunderstorms on Sat. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1115 AM Tuesday...Weaker pressure gradient exists across the adjacent Atlantic waters compared to the last couple days. Marine observations indicate winds around 10 knots and subsiding seas. Westerly flow will veer to a SW to S direction and increase a notch as the sea breeze circulation evolves. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...A cold front will lie across the waters or just to out S on Wed before dissipating Thu. The wind direction should start the day on Wed from the NE, but veer quickly to the E. Easterly winds should hold Wed night and Thu morning before veering to the SE and then S Thu afternoon. The wind direction Thu night should be mainly from the SW. The highest wind speeds will be 10 to 15 kt both Wed and Thu night. Seas will be 2 to 3 ft Wed into Wed night and mainly 3 ft late Thu night, otherwise seas will be 2 ft or less. The risk for thunderstorms will be greatest Wed with POPs trending much lower Thu and Thu night. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...High pressure offshore will intensify through Friday before weakening again in response to a cold front dropping down from the north. SW winds around this surface high will slowly increase to around 15 kt during Friday before weakening and then shifting to the W/NW late on Saturday as the front encroaches on the waters. Seas will be formed by a SE swell as well as an amplifying SW wind wave Friday, with significant seas building to 3-4 ft late Friday into Saturday. Seas will fall slowly late in the period as the winds ease and shift offshore.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...SRP SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...RJD

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