Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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061 FXUS62 KILM 231637 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1137 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will bring showers and a few thunderstorms today, along with gusty winds. Dry and seasonable weather will follow Wednesday through Friday. Weekend temperatures will warm again ahead of a cold front, along with showers late Saturday and especially on Sunday. The passage of another cold front will bring a return to seasonable temperatures Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 815 AM Tuesday...Whirlwind start to the morning with a line of moderate convection moving offshore. A few wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph were observed, with an elevated station near Bald Head Island measuring 47 mph. This line is not the front, the boundary still lies well west of the area. The front will push eastward quickly today, and latest HRRR/NSSL WRF suggest a secondary line of convection will develop along the immediate boundary. This should be much weaker as drier air begins to fill the column from the top, but do expect a secondary line of showers to move across the area from late this morning through early aftn, and have tried to show best timing in the forecast. Winds behind this front have shifted to the SW and this is allowing sea fog to develop and spread across the Grand Strand. Have added sea fog to the immediate coast where SREF probs for VSBY less than 1mile are highest, but this should be a pretty transient event as winds gradually shift more the W/SW through the aftn pushing sea fog away from the coast. Other concern today is gusty winds, especially as the column dries and sun breaks out this aftn. There is likely to be a period this aftn/eve when wind gusts of over 30 mph will occur, potentially highest thanks to wind speeds at the top of the PBL of 40 kts possibly mixing towards the surface. Previous discussion below: As of 240 AM Tuesday...The actual cold front or wind shift as it is is defined well to the west by a fine line of showers and this may take most of the morning to clear the area and if it holds together, pops may have to be extended to the east by a couple of hours. Overall the small severe threat hasn`t changed with the best coupling of stronger low level winds (around 50kts at 850mb) coupled with the showers from about 9-12 UTC. Warm and very blustery later today with highs into the 70s and west to southwest winds gusting well over 30 MPH. Lows Wednesday morning in the middle to upper 30s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 AM Tuesday...Prime caption this period, `Dry and Seasonable`, as W and NW flow aloft overspreads the region in wake of a cold frontal passage. Drying will mix to the surface Wednesday and Thursday, as surface dewpoints fall into the 20s. Thursday and Friday minimum temperatures will dip to a few degrees either side of freezing. Sunshine minutes will be plentiful this period, although maximums will hold in the 50s. Resurgence of high pressure from the west Wednesday night and early Thursday, will bring an increase in north wind, which will produce wind-chills in the 20s at daybreak on Thursday, as day time temperatures struggle to eclipse 50. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...Friday will bring transition to seasonable weather as high pressure goes from our west to our northeast. Onshore flow Saturday will import Atlantic moisture into the area and clouds should increase. A warmer afternoon is also expected though ocean moderation may extend pretty far inland. Winds go south on Sunday ahead of a strong upper wave and surface cold front. Showers and thunderstorms appear likely including some areas of moderate to heavy rainfall. Back to sunny and seasonable on Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 17Z...Front has entered the western CWA and will reach the coast in a few hours. An isolated shower is possible with rope cloud crossing into Marlboro county, but aviation should not be affected much. MVFR conditions will improve to VFR later this afternoon with scattering skies. Gusty southwest winds will diminish this evening and become northwesterly. VFR Wednesday with sunny skies. Extended Outlook...VFR through the end of the forecast period. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 815 AM Tuesday...Line of convection is clearing the last legs of the coastal waters and will push east and out of the area in the next hour or two. A few strong wind gusts are still possible through this morning in the strongest cells. A second line of showers is expected to move across the waters this aftn as the actual FROPA occurs, but this will be much weaker. Marine fog has developed as SW winds overspread the waters. Have issues an MF.Y for Cape Fear South, and may need to expand this to AMZ250 later this morning. Confidence is lower there as trajectories will be shorter and SREF vsby probs are lower. Marine fog will persist until the winds shift more to the W/SW with the actual front this aftn. Previous discussion below: As of 240 AM Tuesday...Winds from the south/southwest of 15-20 knots will continue for several hours this morning before diminishing later this afternoon with the direction veering more to the west/southwest. By tonight the direction will be from the northwest with speeds decreasing further to 10-15 knots. Significant seas will be 5-7 feet a good part of the day. Seas will decrease to 2-4 feet tonight. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 AM Tuesday...No advisories expected this period, in a moderate offshore west wind, and as a result, highest seas will reside offshore. Inshore seas will remain manageable, but do expect NW wind gusts to 20 KT Wednesday night and early Thursday as a resurge in high pressure works in. In addition to offshore chop and wind-seas, a SSE swell of 1-2 ft every 7 seconds may be expected. The dry atmosphere this period will prevent TSTMs and fog from forming. Sea surface temperatures inshore were in the upper 40s and lower 50s. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...High pressure shifts offshore and becomes centered further to the north on Friday. Northerly winds will start diminishing and veering. Expect easterly winds by Friday and SE on Saturday. Swell energy will increase as a long onshore fetch develops but any increase in wind wave should be minimal. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ250- 252-254-256. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ250- 252-254-256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...JDW/SHK SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DL MARINE...

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