Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 220734 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 234 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Mild January weather will prevail through Tuesday, ahead of an approaching cold front. Light coastal showers later today, will be followed by more widespread shower coverage Tuesday, with a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Cooler air will move in during the mid-week period, as high pressure builds from the west. A cold front will approach next weekend, bringing a warming trend, and a chance of showers Saturday night and Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 234 AM Monday...Subtle and brief mid level ridging will give way to a southwest flow later today as a mid level cyclone moves into the Ohio Valley. At the surface high pressure will keep an increasingly moist southerly flow in place. There may be a few isolated showers with the surge of warm and moist air from midday onward but overall guidance has backed off this activity a bit. The main cold front moves to the western areas of the CWA by the end of the period and we have maintained the good chance pops mostly for after midnight moving eastward in time. Expect balmy temperatures today approaching 70 in some areas and little cooling by Tuesday morning as some wind keeps the boundary layer somewhat mixed. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 234 AM Monday...Primary weather caption this period, `Wet and Mild Tuesday, Turning Cooler and Drier Wednesday`. Showers and perhaps a TSTM, will be ongoing at the onset of the period, daybreak Tuesday, and a very blustery and mild start to the day. Minimums daybreak Tuesday, will elevate to values, that reflect the normal daytime highs for late January, and dewpoints should gradually rise to around 60 early Tuesday ahead of the front. This may allow coastal sea fog to also be an ongoing hazard, as the mild flow traverses the chilled inshore SSTs. There appears to be enough CAPE to warrant a slight chance of TSTMs mainly Tuesday morning. Despite the cool marine layer, elevated, warm air advection convection is possible, given the kinetic support aloft. Mid-level lapse rates are mediocre, and this may serve to limit convective-strength potential. Clearing trends in wake of the pre-frontal convection, yet prior to the CAA, will allow a window of downslope trajectories Tuesday afternoon in mild air, likely bringing many locals into the 70s. Cold air advection on NW winds will bring lows in the 30s early Wednesday, with a seasonably cool and mostly sunny day Wednesday, very near normal for January 24th. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Sunday...The surface and upper air pattern will be both progressive and amplifying through Saturday with the ridge developing in the east. Once surface return flow is established locally, we should start to see warmer temperatures. It appears this happens on Saturday. Cloud cover and rain chances then rise quickly on Sunday with the approach of the cold front and strengthening upper trough from the west. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 06Z...VFR conditions expected through the first half of the period then the forecast gets somewhat complex. A warm front will move across the area around midday Monday ahead of a stronger cold front that will move across Tuesday. Numerical guidance is and has been advertising IFR stratus and BR at all sites in the wake of the warm front. I trended these conditions in late in the afternoon or early evening at all sites. Extended Outlook...VFR. MVFR/IFR/LIFR Mon evening/early Tue aftn. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 234 AM Monday...Very light winds and meager seas currently reside across the waters. Both will increase methodically today and moreso tonight as a decent cold front moves closer from the west. Expect winds of ten knots or less to increase to 15-20 knots by early Tuesday (possibly a knot or two higher for a couple of hours). Seas will increase from just over one foot to 3-5 feet by Tuesday morning. For now do not expect seas of six feet but it could be close for a couple of hours. At a minimum a SCEC headline will be necessary this afternoon. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 234 AM Monday...Tuesday will be a difficult marine day as SW and W winds gust up to 25-30 KT, prior to a cold front passage toward evening. This will require a Small Craft Advisory Tuesday, but it appears winds are strongest ahead of the front, and in wake of the front Tuesday night and Wed, a diminishing wind trend can be expected, and thus a short-lived advisory. Recent numerical wave guidance puts seas at 7 feet 20 miles offshore Tuesday, from the S every 6-7 seconds. Additionally, a few TSTMS are possible inshore, and more likely offshore closer to the west wall of the Gulf Stream. If this were not enough, inshore waters may face areas of sea fog Monday night and Tuesday morning. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 3 PM Sunday...As a anticyclone approaches Thursday flow veers to N then NE, possibly becoming light and variable for a time Thursday evening or early Thursday night as it moves nearly overhead. E or ESE winds should then increase Friday as this high begins to share a center with one moving off the New England coast. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...8 NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SHK

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