Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 251033 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 633 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms may bring heavy rainfall and possible localized flooding into Wednesday. A cold front will approach from the north and should slip into the area late tonight and on Wednesday before stalling and then dissipating by Thursday. The arrival of a stronger cold front this weekend will bring numerous thunderstorms back into the eastern Carolinas.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...Weak cold front will stall just north of the area this morning. The front will end up lifting back north around midday as diurnal heating helps surface southerly flow and the sea breeze kicks up. Mid level troughing today will be weaker than past days and drier air aloft will be spreading over the region. Deep moisture may linger along the coast and this is the area with the best potential for any showers and thunderstorms. Pattern aloft lacks any significant features and mid/upper level winds struggle to reach 30 kt. Although there will be surface based instability the lack of mid level mositure, precipitable water will be anywhere from 1.5 to 1.75 inches, will hamper development of deep convection. Do expect to see a few storms on the sea breeze and possibly the Piedmont trough but coverage overall will be limited. Light steering flow will keep storm motions at or below 10 kt and flooding will be a concern with any storms that do develop. Bulk of todays activity will be diurnally driven with activity quickly diminishing as the sun sets. Cold front will slowly sag south overnight but the abundance of mid level dry air combined with lack of forcing should keep most areas dry overnight. High temperatures will be near climo today with mid to upper 80s along the coast and lower 90s inland. Heat index will end up similar to or even slightly cooler than yesterday, peaking around 100 degrees this afternoon. Lows overnight will continue to run above climo with debris cloud and low level moisture keeping lows in the mid 70s inland with upper 70s along the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...Turning decidedly drier with time during this forecast period as mid/upper trough gets shunted S/SE of the area with some brief ridging taking place aloft. A cold front will be near or just to our S at the start of the period and should dissipate by Thu. Precipitable water values will still be 2 inches or greater to begin the period, trending to 1.5 inches by Wed night and Thu as the mid levels dry significantly. This drier air will result in POPs lowering from N to S through the period. Still can not rule out some heavy rain in showers and thunderstorms Wed, most probable across our southern zones and points south where significant drying will occur last. Slow storm motions heighten the risk for excessive rainfall, at least on a localized basis. As high pressure, centered off the New England coast noses into the area, only a small risk for showers and thunderstorms should remain across southernmost areas Thu with no mentionable POPs slated along and N of a FLO to CRE line. Highs on Wed should be higher N portions of Forecast Area, the result of less convection and more hours of sunshine as compared to communities further S, mid and upper 80s. Typical summertime highs for Thu, upper 80s and lower 90s with mid 80s at the beaches. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...Longwave trough which has affected the eastern CONUS for what seems like most of the summer will re-intensify this weekend after a brief period of warm and dry weather on Friday. On Friday, WAA drives 850mb temps towards 20C, and convective coverage will be even more limited despite highs climbing into the 90s with heat index values once again rising towards 105. Eastern trough re-loads beginning Saturday driving another cold front into the eastern Carolinas. This front will become aligned parallel to the flow through the wknd and into early next week as an anomalous cutoff digs towards GA. Deep moist advection, upper diffluence, and PWATs over 2 inches all suggest periods of heavy rain and tstms Saturday through Monday as more unsettled weather plagues the region. The benefit to the forecasted rainfall is that temps will remain at or below climo, mid to upr 80s, the latter half of the extended. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 12Z...A cold front will sag south and into the area tonight and should be overhead or just to our S Wed morning. Some early morning few/sct stratus poking around early below 1kft. Mid to late afternoon slow moving thunderstorms and showers may reduce ceiling and visibility to MVFR or lower with the higher probability for flight restrictions at the coastal terminals and KFLO. Overnight, the risk for MVFR will be increasing with MVFR BR and ceilings. There is a small chance for IFR stratus developing, mainly at KILM toward morning. Extended Outlook...Lingering MVFR/IFR possible Wed morning. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms Wed. Flight restrictions will be possible in thunderstorms on Sat.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...Bermuda High remains off the coast but gradient over the waters has weakened somewhat. Southwest flow around 15 kt this morning will dip into the 10 to 15 kt range today. Speeds may climb back toward 15 kt late in the afternoon but increase will be short lived. Southerly flow weakens in the evening before a weak cold front drops in from the north. Winds become light and variable with the front in the vicinity as the period ends. Seas 3 to 4 ft this morning will drop to 3 ft this afternoon and evening and 2 to 3 ft by the end of the period. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...A cold front will lie across the waters or just to out S on Wed before dissipating Thu. The wind direction should start the day on Wed from the NE, but veer quickly to the E. Easterly winds should hold Wed night and Thu morning before veering to the SE and then S Thu afternoon. The wind direction Thu night should be mainly from the SW. The highest wind speeds will be 10 to 15 kt both Wed and Thu night. Seas will be 2 to 3 ft Wed into Wed night and mainly 3 ft late Thu night, otherwise seas will be 2 ft or less. The risk for thunderstorms will be greatest Wed with POPs trending much lower Thu and Thu night. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...High pressure offshore will intensify through Friday before weakening again in response to a cold front dropping down from the north. SW winds around this surface high will slowly increase to around 15 kt during Friday before weakening and then shifting to the W/NW late on Saturday as the front encroaches on the waters. Seas will be formed by a SE swell as well as an amplifying SW wind wave Friday, with significant seas building to 3-4 ft late Friday into Saturday. Seas will fall slowly late in the period as the winds ease and shift offshore. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...RJD MARINE...

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