Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 291323 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 923 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP TUESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 915 AM MONDAY...THE MORNING CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY HAS SHIFTED 40 MILES OFF THE COAST. THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DEPICTED VERY WELL BY THE DEWPOINT FIELD. THE BOUNDARY IS NEAR A LINE FROM JACKSONVILLE TO WESTERN COLUMBUS COUNTY TO KINGSTREE. THE 12 UTC RUN OF THE HRRR IS SHOWING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEING SHUNTED TO THE COAST WITH THE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST REMAINING HIGHER. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THE MOISTURE ADVECTING BACK INTO THE AREA AFTER 3 PM AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AREA OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THE HRRR IS ONLY SHOWING WEAK REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURES OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND HORRY COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED STORM MENTION IN THESE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH MINS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT AND DRY FOR TUESDAY...BUT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO JULY. BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH MID- WEEK...BUT WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS STAYING WEST OF THE AREA...SW FLOW WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL EVEN WITH SOME RELATIVELY LOWERED THICKNESSES. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 90S...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER...BUT STILL LIKELY ABOVE CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO RAMP BACK UP...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...AS RETURN FLOW PUSHES ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE COLUMN. WHILE TUESDAY LOOKS DRY...LATE TUESDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME LOW-END POP ACROSS WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT. BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES EXIST WEDNESDAY AS PWATS RISE BACK ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND THE TROUGH FLATTENS - ACTUALLY DRIVING SLIGHTLY LOWER THICKNESSES ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY BOTH BE ACTIVE ON WEDNESDAY. MINS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS...WITH WIDESPREAD MID 70S EXPECTED...AND SOME UPR 70S ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...FAIRLY TYPICAL JULY WEATHER WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND A DECENT JULY 4TH WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP LOCALLY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE BUT MAINTAIN RIDGING BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. ALOFT...A BROAD TROUGH WILL FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE SHARPENING ONCE AGAIN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CAROLINAS HOWEVER...SO THIS WILL ACTUALLY DRIVE INCREASING THICKNESSES LOCALLY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 90S...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...EACH AFTN...AND POSSIBLE WELL ABOVE CLIMO BY THE WEEKEND. MINS WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...MID 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH NIGHT THANKS TO THE CONTINUOUS WARM SW FLOW. TSTM CHANCES WILL EXIST EACH AFTN ALONG THE TYPICAL BOUNDARIES...AND AIDED BY THE SUBTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS ALOFT. BY THE WEEKEND...CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AS THE HEIGHTS BUILD OVERHEAD. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO FOCUS ON DETAILS OF WHERE THE BEST POP WILL EXIST...THU/FRI WILL FEATURE BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES THAN EITHER SAT OR SUN.
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&& .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 12Z...THE FOG AT LBT SHOULD BE OUT OF HERE IN AN HOUR OR TWO. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING...NORTHEAST AT TIMES...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY WITH THE RESULTANT THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CWA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 915 AM MONDAY...WEST TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BRING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND WILL DRIVE THE REGIME THROUGH MID-WEEK. THESE TWO FEATURES IN TANDEM WILL CREATE SW WINDS...WHICH WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY 10-15 KTS...BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE EACH EVENING TO 20 KTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THANKS TO THE DAILY SHARPENING OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND LONG FETCH WILL CREATE A WAVE SPECTRUM COMPRISED OF BOTH SW WIND WAVE AND A GROWING SE SWELL. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3-5 FT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND PERIODIC SCEC STATEMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FASHION. THE GRADIENT WILL BECOME PINCHED AT TIMES DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS INLAND FROM THE WATERS. THIS WILL DRIVE SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS...RISING UP TO 20 KTS IN THE EVENING. SEAS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY 3-5 FT...BUT SLIGHT INCREASES IN THE EVENINGS MAY NECESSITATE CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY STATEMENTS AT TIMES.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HAWKINS SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...43

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