Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 011923 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 323 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE CALM WINDS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 60 AREA-WIDE. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE APPEARS RELATED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG THAT MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE. THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS CERTAINLY FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. DEWPOINTS APPEAR ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST NIGHT BUT THE AFTERNOON TURNED OUT A TAD MILDER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED THAT SHOULD NOT MATTER MUCH AND FOG CONTINUES TO BE CARRIED FOR ALL ZONES WITH LOCALLY DENSE WORDING ADDED. EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY HAVE A BETTER IDEA WHAT PLACES IF ANY MAY SEE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH DENSE FOG FOR AN ADVISORY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. RISING HEIGHTS AND SUNSHINE WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LOWER TO MID 80S. A SEABREEZE WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE BEACHES AROUND 80. LONGER NIGHTS AND A RATHER DRY COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY MOST OF THE DAY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF DEEP UPSTREAM TROUGH. THEREFORE...WILL SLOW THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE WESTERNMOST AREAS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG FRONTAL LIFT DOES COMBINE WITH A MOISTENING COLUMN AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...GIVING ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EAST COAST SAT...REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE KEEPS THE REGION DRY. BRUNT OF THE COLD ADVECTION OCCURS SAT INTO SUN WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING MAY HELP TEMPER LOWS A BIT SUN MORNING BUT STRENGTH OF COLD AIR WILL STILL LEAD TO LOWS ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS. AIR MASS WILL MODIFY SOME ON SUN BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL COME INTO PLAY SUN NIGHT. COOLING WILL NOT BE MAXIMIZED AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT LOWS MON MORNING WILL STILL END UP SIMILAR TO SUN MORNING. RETURN FLOW SETS UP MON THROUGH WED...BRIEFLY BROKEN BY PASSAGE OF FRONTAL REMAINS ON TUE. FRONT IS WASHED OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE AREA...HAVING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH IT AND ITS PASSAGE WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO INTO MON BEFORE CLIMBING SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO LATE IN THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS. THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT WE HAVE HAD FOR NEARLY TWO WEEKS IS FINALLY COMING TO AN END. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE AS DENSE AS THIS MORNING. THURSDAY...VFR WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN NEARLY STALLED WELL OFFSHORE FOR A WHILE NOW THAT HAS BEEN BOLSTERING THE NE FLOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY ENOUGH TO NO LONGER BE A LOCAL WIND-MAKER. SIMILARLY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS, ITS PARENT ANTICYCLONE ALL THE WAY UP THE EAST COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LOOK FOR A DECREASING N TO NE FLOW LOCALLY, LIKELY SETTLING TO JUST 10 KT. SEAS WILL ABATE TO JUST 2 FT AREA-WIDE. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE RATHER BENIGN INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE. A LAND BREEZE MOVING OFFSHORE WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH THURSDAY MORNING. THE DIRECTION WILL VEER TO THE SE AND S THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE AND TO THE SW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY... WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. SW WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SW WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT EARLY SAT WILL RESULT IN 15 TO 20 KT WINDS VEERING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST DURING SAT. GUSTY WINDS SAT AFTERNOON WILL WANE IN THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND GRADIENT RELAXES. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUN BUT WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE SUN WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE BACKING TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT MON INTO MON NIGHT. WIDE RANGE OF SEAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...2 TO 6 FT...WILL NARROW AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND SPEEDS DECREASE. SEAS SUN WILL BE 1 TO 3 FT DROPPING TO 2 FT OR LESS FOR MON.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...III AVIATION...MBB/DL

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