Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 180720 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 320 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Hurricane Jose will continue to lift off to the north leaving dry and warm weather across the Coastal Carolinas through much of the week. An increased rip current risk will continue from swells from Jose and then Maria by mid week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Monday...Weak high pressure will continue to extend down from the north as Jose, around 400 miles due east early this morning, lifts farther off to the north. Moisture profiles and sounding data show saturated low level column up to around 1500 ft over mainly coastal NC but should extend in as far as Lumberton. Therefore expect another round of stratus this morning. These low clouds will dissipate through mid to late morning. Otherwise will have a mainly dry period as Jose lifts off to the north and high pressure extends down into the Carolinas. Pcp water loops do show some moisture bands wrapping around along the NC coast but this will mainly amount to some mid level clouds. Northerly winds will back to the N-NW through tonight leaving continued dry air and subsidence across the area. Have left out any mention of pcp through the period. Overall expect a good amount of sunshine with temps in the mid 80s this aftn and mid 60s most places for lows tonight. The rip current risk will remain elevated through today as a result of the incoming swell energy from Jose.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Monday...Dry and warm weather will characterize the Short Term. Period begins with Hurricane Jose projected to be located at sea well east of Hampton roads, continuing on a generally NNE to NEly track. Eastern CONUS will be the influence of a weak ridge during this period. Subsidence in the wake of Jose and dry air aloft will keep a lid on convection and along with ample insolation contribute to a warming trend. Expect slightly higher than normal temperatures developing by Wednesday.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 245 PM Sunday...Weak high pressure will be the rule, reinforced by high pressure from the north late in the week. Only low-end POPs needed primarily for Thursday with sea breeze becoming active, otherwise building high pressure will preclude convective chances Friday. Depending on the low-level moisture transport, far in advance of the northwest side of Maria, there could be some showers that can move onshore in the northeasterly low-level fetch this weekend. However, weather for the upcoming weekend and early the following week will be highly dependent on Maria`s eventual track. Followed a blend of ECE and MEX numbers through the period. Lastly, the rip current risk will likely increase again by Wednesday as Maria` swells begin to impact the coast.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 06Z...Hurricane Jose is about 400 miles east of Cape Fear this evening and should continue to move northward with little impact on the area but will produce some gusty northerly winds right along the coast early today. Some patches of mid level clouds right around 8k ft across the area overnight, remaining in line with soundings and moisture profiles basically right under subsidence inversion with plenty of dry air above through the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. Looks like another round of low stratus will produce IFR ceilings this morning. May be somewhat more widespread than last night with soundings showing a saturated layer up to around 1200 ft with models indicating ceiling heights 500-800 ft mainly between 10z to 14z from ILM across to LBT and lower possibly as far south as CRE/MYR. Expect plenty of dry air and subsidence as winds back slightly from N to N-NW through the period on the back end of Jose as it moves north. Therefore VFR expected once stratus dissipates by around noon. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions through the period are expected with the exception of a few hours of early morning low clouds or fog most mornings through the period. The highest risk of IFR conditions will be in the 0900-1200Z timeframe.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...Latest buoy observations show seas running about 5 to 8 ft with long period swells up to 12 to 13 seconds. The seas will be on a downward trend as Jose lifts off to the north and lingering swell energy begins to diminish. Ended up extending the SCA for the NC waters until 8am Tues, but the SCA will expire for SC waters 8 pm tonight. WNA indicates that the peak of seas occurred just around midnight and we are now on a downward trend through today into tonight as long period swells from Jose begin to taper off. Northeast winds of 15 to 20 knots will continue into this morning before diminishing and backing slightly toward the N-NW through tonight. Overall expect improving marine conditions through tonight. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...Conditions over the waters will continue to improve as the influence from distant Hurricane Jose fades. A Small Craft Advisory may be in effect for our NC waters at the beginning of the period with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range. However, with Jose moving SE of New England, expect continued light winds, with seas subsiding below advisory criteria by Tuesday night. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 215 PM Sunday...Weak high pressure will prevail through the long term period but will become better established from the north Thu into Fri. As a result, varying winds into Thu will become east-northeasterly during Fri and increasing to around 15 knots. Seas will be a mix of residual easterly swell then increasing Maria swells by Wednesday. Maria`s swells will continue to build through the end of the week.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for SCZ054-056. NC...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NCZ106-108-110. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ254-256. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...RGZ

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