Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 281929 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 329 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS CONVECTION-FREE AS OF THIS HOUR ALTHOUGH A MODEST CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH ARE IN PROGRESS TO OUR WEST. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DESPITE ADEQUATE MOISTURE. GUIDANCE AND TRENDS INDICATE THAT SIGNIFICANT SEA-BREEZE RELATED CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE SPARSE OR NON-EXISTENT THIS PERIOD...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR OUR COASTAL COUNTIES AND CONTINUED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR FAR INLAND COUNTIES. GUIDANCE AND PRESENT STORM MOTION INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME OF THE PIEDMONT-TROUGH RELATED CONVECTION DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THESE INLAND COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS CONVECTION SEEMS ENTIRELY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN...EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL CONVERGE OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70 RANGE...SO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED MIXING FROM A STEADY NELY FLOW WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING THICK OR WIDESPREAD. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD WITH MAXIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOCUS FOR PRECIP INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA ALOFT AND A WIMPY SURFACE PATTERN. THERE ARE 10 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR ISOLATED SEA BREEZE OR PIEDMONT TROUGH STORMS WHICH ARE MAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. 20 POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH BUT THE BEST LIFT SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR THE AREA WHEN INSTABILITY IS AT A MINIMUM. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP TO START THE PERIOD AND WILL MEANDER SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. UPPER FORCING IS WEAK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND FORECAST PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. GUIDANCE VARIES THEREAFTER AS TO HOW FAR SE THIS BOUNDARY WILL TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. THE GFS IS NOW QUITE DRY FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAS DRIED OUT FOR SUN/MON AS WELL. WPC KEEPS THE FRONT ALIGNED ON THE COAST SUNDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT MONDAY...SO WILL HEDGE SOMEWHAT DRIER AND LESS UNSETTLED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW CHC POP EACH AFTN. A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER VORT SWINGS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVERHEAD. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO...WARMER WELL INLAND WHERE MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THANKS TO THE SE PUSH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. && .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 12Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT NE WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND LIGHT EAST WINDS INLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS AND LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LIGHT NE-E WINDS...EXCEPT E-SE WINDS 6-15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SCT-BKN CU/SC 2.5-4K WITH SOME SCT MID CLOUDS AROUND 11K THIS MORNING. TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING 13-16Z. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCT AS THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE TO THE SE OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND NW OF THE INLAND TERMINALS. THUS ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE TODAY. THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM ONLY AT KFLO/KLBT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE. SCATTERED ACTIVITY FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 KTS OR SO WITH SEAS OF AROUND 3 FT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH WELL TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME S TO SW OVER THE WATERS. SPEEDS OF 15 KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL REMAINS IN QUESTION. CURRENT THINKING IS THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A WEAK GRADIENT WITH WIND SPEEDS LIKELY REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DIRECTION WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE HOWEVER...WITH PERIODS OF NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE W/SW WINDS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWEST LATE FRI INTO SAT WHEN WINDS BECOME VARIABLE...AND HIGHEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SW WINDS BECOME PREDOMINANT AGAIN. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...31 NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...31 LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...REK

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.