Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 261721 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1221 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CONGEAL INTO A POWERFUL NEW ENGLAND NOR`EASTER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. UNTIL THEN...VERY CHILLY CONDITIONS AT 500 MB (TEMPS AS COLD AS -26C ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA) WILL CONTINUE...PRODUCING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT OR JUST STEEPER THAN THE MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND SPREADING EASTWARD INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA. AS SUNSHINE HEATS TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S WE EXPECT A HEALTHY CUMULUS CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH EMBEDDED TOWERING CUMULUS AND SHOWERY CB`S AS WELL. THIS BEST POTENTIAL INITIALLY SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE NC SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD CAPE FEAR THIS EVENING. NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAIN. CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING INCLUDE BUMPING HIGHS UP TO NEAR 60 NEAR THE SANTEE RIVER...DELAYING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS...DELAYING THE ONSET OF CLEARING/ DRYING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS MOST OF THE LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING NEAR CAPE FEAR. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BLOCKBUSTER STORM CLOBBERING NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND AS AS USUAL WHEN THIS IS THE CASE COLD AIR WILL READILY INVADE MOST AREAS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. A SMALL LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS OUT THE DAY BUT WITH A GREAT DEPTH OF THE COLUMN A DRY NWRLY FLOW THIS SHOULD MIX OUT FOR NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. EVEN SO, THE CAA WILL CAP HIGHS IN THE MID 40S, SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. OFT TIMES WITH SUCH A LARGE AND STRENGTHENING STORM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IT IS OFTEN RATHER BLUSTERY LOCALLY BUT THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFERING THIS TIME AROUND. WE SEEM TO FIND OURSELVES IN A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD BETWEEN THE JET ASSOC WITH THE ACTUAL STORM CENTER AND THE MAIN AXIS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST OF THE LOW LVL THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SO IN AN AIRMASS COLD ENOUGH TO BRING LOWS CLOSE TO 20 WE SHOULD INSTEAD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S...PERHAPS LOW 30S FAR SRN ZONES. UPPER TROUGH AXIS WELL OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST SURFACE PRESSURES BUILDS RIGHT OVERHEAD. SO WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR RECOVERY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE MIXING (2200FT?) WILL BRING CHILLY HIGHS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THOSE OBSERVED TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MUCH MORE TYPICAL OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER POSSIBLY AS DEEP AS 9KFT. HOWEVER DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THE NIGHT BEFORE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD EARLY THURSDAY AND JUST OFFSHORE IN A WEAKENING STATE LATER IN THE DAY. ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW NORMAL QUITE DRY BUT SOME PVA INDUCED BY THE WESTERLIES REACTING WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW IN THE SW WINDS TO BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. MEANWHILE AFTERNOON TEMPS REBOUND CLOSE TO CLIMO. WILL THIS MOISTURE BE ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT SOME PRECIPITATION AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING? HARD TO SAY THIS FAR OUT BUT GIVEN THE FAIRLY ROBUST STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH THE SLIGHT CHANCE INHERITED POPS LOOK FINE. EITHER WAY IT WILL STAY MILD ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY PTYPE CONCERNS. THE WEEKEND WILL BASICALLY JUST FEATURE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND HUDSON BAY VORTEX. THERE MAY AT SOME TIME BE ENOUGH OF A SPOKE OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS FLOW TO YIELD ASCENT AND EVEN OFFSHORE PRESSURE FALLS. ANY SUCH DISTURBANCE IS FAR BEYOND BEING SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR NETWORK AND SO SOLUTIONS MAY SHOW HIGH VARIABILITY FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS MOST PRUDENT TO FOCUS ON THE CHILLY TEMPS AND ADDRESS ANY CLOUD COVER AND LOW RAIN CHANCES AT A FUTURE TIME. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON COULD GIVE WAY TO PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SFC HEATING WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR ISO/SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY 20-21Z...MOST LIKELY OVER OUR NORTHERN TIER. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS AND INTRODUCE TEMPO -SHRA AT KLBT AND KILM THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF AVIATION IMPACTS OTHER THAN MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS TEMPO MVFR VSBYS. W-NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KILM AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE NOR`EASTER. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD. NW WINDS 8-12 KT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...BASED ON BUOY WAVE OBSERVATIONS OF 5.5 FEET FROM THE WILMINGTON "HARBOR" BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR RIVER...I HAVE STARTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY (NOW) FOR ALL ZONES AS IT IS LIKELY 6 FOOT SEAS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED ACROSS AREAS WITH A LONG FETCH TO WESTERLY WINDS. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SHIFT ITS ENERGY OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS NEW LOW WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR EAST COAST WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE BOMB OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BRINGS CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE EAST COAST. DUE TO THE DISTANCE OF THIS STORM AND THE FACT THAT ITS BACKSWELL DOES NOT SIGNIFICANTLY REFRACT AROUND CAPE HATTERAS TOWARDS OUR REGION IT SEEMS THAT WE MAY NOT SEE ANY ADVISORIES SAVE FOR PERHAPS THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD. THEREAFTER DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED AS THE GRADIENT EASES. NOT TOO FAR OFFSHORE HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD AGITATED WIND FIELD AND MARINERS VENTURING OUT PAST OUR 20NM ZONES ARE URGED TO CHECK WITH THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FROM OPC. A FURTHER ABATING OF THE WIND FIELD IS SLATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE WIND DIRECTION WILL ALSO BE VEERING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...TAKING UP RESIDENCE ALONG THE COASTLINE BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...AN INITIALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE CELL MOVES OFF THE COAST. BY EVENING THIS WIND FIELD WILL INCREASE A BIT IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VEERING DIRECTION WHICH PAIRED WITH THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS COULD LEAD TO SOME MARGINAL 6 FT SEAS OVER MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH WIND AND SEAS BOTH SHOWING A DOWNWARD/IMPROVING TREND. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...BJR

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