Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 271732 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1232 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE SHOULD START FLOWING BACK INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA...WITH THE BACK EDGE PERHAPS ACTUALLY DRIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS ELIZABETHTOWN AND WHITEVILLE RATHER THAN ERODING EASTWARD. EVERY MODEL SHOWS 925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY DIMINISHING BETWEEN NOW AND 22Z WITH WIDENING SURFACE T-TD SPREADS...IMPLYING CLEARING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEWLY UPDATED FORECAST WILL SHOW THIS TREND...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE SLOWER THAN MY MORNING UPDATE SHOWED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER 40S INLAND WITH 43-44 NORTH OF CAPE FEAR ALONG THE COAST...8-14 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DATE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...FINAL MID LEVEL IMPULSE ALREADY JUST OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WHILE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A CHILLY DAY WITH A BIT OF A BREEZE TO START BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON DUE TO THE EASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SKY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND THE SENSE OF LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION REMAINS COLD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKLY REVERSING IN THE BACKING WIND FIELD JUST OFF THE SURFACE. DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S WILL QUICKLY FALL WITH SUNSET DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE 30S AND SETTLE INTO MID 20S FOR LOWS CLOSE TO DAYBREAK. THIS IS COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS RAD COOLING CONDITIONS APPEAR BETTER IF NOT OPTIMIZED. PROGRESSION OF HIGH OFF THE COAST PAIRED WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COOL FRONT SHOULD BOOST THURSDAY TEMPS TO JUST SHY OF CLIMO AND CLOUDS MAY INCREASE SLOWLY. SURFACE COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRAILS CONSIDERABLY. THE DISCONNECTION BETWEEN THE TWO PROBABLY PRECLUDES MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COOL ADVECTION ON FRIDAY MAY BE DELAYED A BIT AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH BY EVENING OR THEREAFTER. TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER MOS HIGHS TOO HIGH OR THAT TEMPS MAY BEGIN FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE INHERITED HIGHS JUST SHY OF CLIMO. CHILLY AIRMASS SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY`S SETTLES IN FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY STILL COOL BUT WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME RAIN SPREADING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE MAY BE WRUNG OUT BY A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS THROUGH LATE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME MORE CHILLY BUT NOT ARTIC AIR. MEANWHILE INTERESTING SOUTHERN BRANCH FEATURE HANGING BACK JUST WEST OF TEXAS. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... STRONG LOW PRESSURE OF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MID CLOUD. ILM AND LBT COULD SEE A LINGERING MVFR CEILING FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO. WINDS DIMINISH FOR DIURNAL REASONS THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION...DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG FORMATION. WEDNESDAY...SUNNY SKIES WITH WITH A MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...NW WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 20 KT...A LITTLE STRONGER NEAR CAPE FEAR AND A LITTLE WEAKER ALONG THE SC COAST. SEA HEIGHTS ARE ARE NEARLY UNCHANGED FROM LATE THIS MORNING. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE WAS TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND REPLACE IT WITH AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE VALID THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT UPDATE WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO DO THE SAME FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY BRINGS AN INITIALLY MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL GRADUALLY EASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY ABATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVEN WITH THE EARLY DAY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS NO FLAGS EXPECTED DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPING THE LARGEST SEAS REMOVED FROM THE COASTLINE. AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST LATE THURSDAY A FURTHER DECREASE IN WIND SPEED EXPECTED WHILE CONSIDERABLE VEERING IN DIRECTION OCCURS. SEAS SETTLE IN HEIGHT EVEN IF THE PERIOD SHORTENS SLIGHTLY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PICKS UP THURSDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COOL AIR PUSH ON FRIDAY SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW ADVISORY OR HEADLINES THRESHOLDS WITH NWRLY FLOW VEERING SLIGHTLY TO NE ON SEERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE HIGH OVER SRN GREAT LAKES. THE LARGE ANTICYCLONE WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY LEADING TO ONLY A MINOR ADDITIONAL VEER LOCALLY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...43

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