Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 301021 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 617 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH DAYTIME SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 617 AM MONDAY...WHILE A FEW COLD POCKETS ARE HANGING ON EARLY THIS MORNING...THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS HAVE EXPERIENCED GRADUAL WARMING PRECEDING DAYBREAK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. EARLY SUNSHINE WILL BE SEEN BEFORE CLOUDS FILL IN LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS QUICK WARMING TODAY...HOLDING MAXIMUMS IN THE 60S. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE AND THE PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. PROGRESSIVE BUT WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING WEST OF I-95 TO MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST. MOISTURE ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED WITH DRY W-WNW H8-H5 WIND FLOW PRECEDING AND FOLLOWING FRONTAL TRANSIT. LATE MARCH HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS. MAXIMUMS SHOULD WARM AROUND 25 DEGREES TODAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH 60S EXPECTED...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TEMPERING A RAPID WARM-UP. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BUT CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A COOL NIGHT WITH MINIMUMS DAYBREAK TUESDAY LOW/MID 40S MOST LOCALS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI. FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO MID 40S. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL MID-MORNING. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY WEARS DOWN THE SFC BASED INVERSION. DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET...LLWS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO THE KLBT/KFLO TERMINALS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ALONG WITH LOW VFR/MID LEVEL CIGS. THESE CIGS WILL REACH THE COASTAL TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE. AS THE FRONT NEARS CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND MID-MORNING AT KFLO/KLBT...AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS COULD DROP AT TIMES TO MVFR IN SHOWERS. IFR APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES MID AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT AND LATE AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SCT/SKC SKIES BY 23-00Z AS WINDS GO LIGHT NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 617 AM MONDAY...AN EXERCISE CAUTION IS POSTED TODAY FROM 10AM-8PM FOR 15-20 KT WINDS AND 4-5 FEET SEAS AWAY FROM INSHORE WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT MAINLY CONFINED IN THE MILDER OUTER PORTIONS SO NO ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED MID AND LATE AFTERNOON TODAY BUT NOT WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING. NO TSTMS EXPECTED OVER THE 0-20NM WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH TONIGHT BUT APPEAR WEAKER THAN THOSE PRECEDING THE FRONT AND NO STRONG COLD AIR SURGE EXPECTED. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID 15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...MJC

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