Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 312350 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 750 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE MOST UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK. A DECAYING FRONT MAY SNEAK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH THE WESTERNMOST COMMUNITIES IN OUR FORECAST AREA. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR IN THE HARTSVILLE TO TIMMONSVILLE AREA PRIOR TO 9 PM. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE THICK CANOPY OF CLOUDS WILL REACH AS FAR EAST AS LUMBERTON TO MARION TO CADES BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY ERODE AFTER 10 PM. A FEW LATE NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC FAVORED WARM WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC MAY SKIRT THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. THE FLOW HAS BACKED A LITTLE TO THE SW AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE FURTHER STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO KEEP THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNRISE...PERHAPS CLIPPING THE SOUTHPORT TO CAROLINA BEACH AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NOCTURNAL JET SHOULD LARGELY PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME. THIS SAME JETTING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM REMAINING FULLY DECOUPLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE FROM TIME TO TIME...WOULD EXPECT MINIMUMS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. AT THE BEACHES...WHERE THE BREEZE MAY PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WILL FORECAST LOWS AROUND 80. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONTERMINOUS U.S. WILL HAVE FAST WESTERLY FLOW...WHEREAS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD WILL HAVE A FLATTENED RIDGE ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY S/W TROFS WITHIN THIS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...NORTH OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT THE FA. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY SOURCES FOR LIFT EACH DAY FOR CONVECTION TO OCCUR. AT THIS POINT HAVE STAYED WITH CLIMO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WHICH IS BASICALLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. ANY WEAK VORTS OR S/W TROFS ALOFT ABLE TO WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE COULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ABOVE CLIMO...30 PERCENT CHANCE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NO LONGER BE IN QUESTION AS MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM VIA LATEST MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND MODEL SOUNDING DATA. OF THE 2 DAYS...TUE WILL BE ILLUSTRATED WITH THE HIER POPS CHANCE AND CLOUD OVERALL COVERAGE. FOR TEMPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKING NEEDED BASED ON 12Z MODEL MOS DATA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE WITH A WEAKENED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. PCP WATER VALUES REMAIN UP AROUND 2 INCHES BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOCKED IN ABOVE H5 WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEA BREEZE KICKING UP EACH AFTERNOON. FLAT MID TO UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A DEEPER SHORTWAVE RIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND DIGS SOUTHWARD PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 OR SO. BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS THROUGH FRI SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND AS TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 00Z...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SCT CONVECTION TO OUR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY IMPACTS TO KFLO/KLBT ATTM...OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASED MID LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS TONIGHT. VERY SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE STILL STATIONED WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT S-SW AOB 5 KT OVERNIGHT. SOME SCT 1-3KFT CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE COASTAL TERMS AGAIN EARLY MON WITH NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OFFSHORE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE INLAND AT KFLO/KLBT...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS FOR THESE SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY MON WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 KT AT THE COASTAL SITES FOLLOWING MIDDAY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS DOES NOT WARRANT A TAF MENTION ATTM. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NOCTURNAL JET AND A STRENGTHENING BERMUDA RIDGE WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. LOOKING AT SYNOPTIC WINDS IN THE SSW THRU WSW WIND DIRECTION...WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT BACKING EACH AFTN AND EVENING FROM THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE. THE SFC PG WILL BECOME MODEST AT BEST RESULTING WITH 10-15 KT OR A SOLID 15 KT WIND SPEED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3 FT...WITH MAJORITY OF THE SIG. SEAS A RESULT OF THE 2 FOOT SE GROUND SWELL RUNNING ROUGHLY AT 9-10 SECOND PERIODS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES ESPECIALLY FROM THE SEA BREEZE WILL RUN SIG. SEAS UP TO 3 TO POSSIBLY 4 FT. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL EXPECT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW 10 KTS OR LESS DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...BJR

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