Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 291751 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 151 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend across the area from offshore through Sunday. Near record high temperatures today in a few places and still warm and humid on Sunday. A cold front will bring a likelihood of showers and thunderstorms late Monday into early Tuesday. High pressure will follow for the mid-week period. A Low pressure system will impact the region Thursday into Friday amd may bring widespread showers and thunderstorms and heavy rain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1100 AM Saturday...Near record high temps today, lower 90s inland and upper 80s to near 90 closer to the coast. Only the beaches will hold in the lower to mid 80s. Location Predicted High Record High Wilmington 87 92 set in 1975 North Myrtle Beach 81 90 set in 2002 Florence 91 91 set in 1981 Lumberton 91 no established record A very humid air mass will continue to maintain dewpoints near 70 to the lower and mid 70s this afternoon. A strong seabreeze will push slowly inland and this will kick winds up to 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts along and on the marine side of the boundary. A shallow layer of moisture will allow cumulus clouds to develop, but with dry air aloft, the clouds should lack vertical depth and are not expected to grow sufficiently to support any showers, even along the sharp seabreeze this afternoon and eve. Tonight, winds above the boundary layer should be sufficiently strong to preclude widespread fog development. However, soundings and moisture profiles show low stratus redeveloping on a fairly widespread basis. It will be a warm and muggy night with lows near 70 to the lower and mid 70s, warmest at the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Saturday...Chances for convection increase through the period as a cold front moves east across the coastal Carolinas, with a deep upper trough descending upon central CONUS. High pressure over the western Atlantic will retreat east as the cold front approaches, with Sunday being generally dry other than some spotty afternoon sea-breeze related convection. POPs increase on Monday, maxing out in the likely category Monday night as the front moves across the forecast area. Steady SW flow in advance of the front will maintain above-normal temperatures for both days, with highs in the mid 80s (lower at the coast) and lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...A cold front will move off the coast Tue morning and high pressure along the Gulf Coast will slide east and then offshore to our S during Wed. This should bring a dry period. Deep low pressure will move out of the mid south and Gulf coast states Wed, lifting slowly to the NE. Its associated cold front will move into the Southeast states Thu-Thu night, bringing the risk for robust thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 18Z Saturday...High confidence in VFR conditions into this eve. Then expect widespread IFR ceilings in stratus to develop across the terminals after 03-05z. The stratus should burn off similarly to this past morning, around 13-14z. Unclear whether the stratus will work its way down to the surface to produce visibility restrictions due to fog overnight. The wind profile does show winds subsiding overnight, but the moisture profile is more conducive for stratus than fog. S to SSW winds will remain gusty at the coastal terminals through about 00-01z due to the seabreeze circulation, gusts up to 20 to 22 kt. Extended outlook...Periods of IFR/MVFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms late Monday into early Tuesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1100 AM Saturday...Southerly return flow around offshore high pressure will keep winds from the S through tonight. Wind speeds will be sustained at 10 to 15 kt, however, across the near shore waters, a stout seabreeze circulation will bring wind gusts up to 20 kt or so this afternoon and early eve. Seas will be around 3 ft throughout. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Saturday...Increasing SW flow in advance of the next cold front will make it likely that a Small Craft Advisory will need to be issued on Monday for winds gusting up to around 30 kt. By Monday night seas will have built to 4 to 7 ft although winds may slacken in the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday as the front makes its close approach. Sunday looks to be the better day for boating, with seas of right around 3 ft and winds of 10 to 15 kt. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...In the wake of the cold frontal passage early Tuesday, offshore winds will slowly diminish. The offshore trajectories will knock seas down and should drop below Small Craft Advisory levels by Tuesday afternoon. There are no concerns for Wednesday into Thursday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...RJD

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