Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 121454 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 954 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST TODAY SPREADING A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LATE TONIGHT AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THIS WEEKEND. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. A WARMUP WILL BEGIN MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NORMAL VALUES AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. RADAR IS SHOWING LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT ECHOS OVER COASTAL NC WITH COVERAGE TRYING TO EXPAND INLAND. HOWEVER THE VERY DRY SURFACE LAYER HAS SO FAR PREVENTED MUCH EXPANSION. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT ICING ON ELEVATED SURFACES IN COASTAL NC BUT NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT ICING. LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN MIX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...HELPING EXPAND THE PRECIP SHIELD. HOWEVER IT WILL LIKELY BE A CASE OF TOO LITTLE TOO LATE AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIP...WHICH WILL STILL NOT BE A LOT...IS LIKELY TO END UP FALLING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS IN AREAS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL BE WELL UNDER 0.10 INCH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RECORD LOWS TO BE SET SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY RECORD LOW HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION ON THE UPWIND SIDE OF A SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUBTLY INCREASING THICKNESSES...BUT THIS WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. NO PRECIP IS FORECAST...SO THE FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR SET TO INVADE THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS SATURDAY WILL PLUMMET THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING...DROPPING AS LOW AS -12C SOUTHERN ZONES TO -15C NORTHERN COUNTIES. COLD ADVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING USUALLY CREATES HIGHS BELOW GUIDANCE...DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...AND THUS THE MOS NUMBERS OF THE MID 40S WELL SOUTH AND AROUND 40 NORTH ARE LIKELY TOO WARM. INHERITED HAS UNDERCUT THESE VALUES BY SEVERAL DEGREES AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS FORECAST WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 35 FAR NORTHERN ZONES...TO ABOUT 42 ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THESE LOW HIGHS AND RAPID COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PERMIT NEAR RECORD LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING: RECORD LOWS (YEAR)/FORECAST FOR 2/14: WILMINGTON: 18 (1968)/18 FLORENCE: 15 (1968)/18 NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 (1955)/19 THESE WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND CHILLS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND DRY- ADIABATIC MIXING WILL KEEP WINDS UP ALL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN FACT MAY BE STRONGER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THAN DURING THE DAY. WINDS OF AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WILL REMAIN GUSTY...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS. BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL NOT HOIST A WIND CHILL ADVISORY YET...BUT EXPECT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA. EVEN COLDER HIGHS ON SUNDAY...AND EVEN THOUGH COLD ADVECTION SHUTS OFF...VERY SHALLOW MIXING AND THE COLD START WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW FREEZING FAR NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S WELL SOUTH. RECORD-LOW MAXIMUMS ARE POSSIBLE AT FLORENCE (RECORD 44) BUT WILL LIKELY BE MISSED AT WILMINGTON (RECORD 29). SUBTLY WARMER LOWS SUNDAY WILL OCCUR THANKS TO SLOWLY DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW...BUILDING CLOUD COVER...AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES. EXPECT MINS SUNDAY NIGHT TO DROP TO AROUND 25-30 DEGREES...WARMEST AT THE SC COAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MS VLY. AHEAD OF THIS DEEP TROUGH...STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND OF THE COAST ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. NO PTYPE ISSUES THIS TIME AROUND...BUT GOOD MOIST ADVECTION AND STRONG FORCING SUPPORTS A HIGH QPF EVENT WHICH COULD ENHANCE OR PROLONG ONGOING RIVER FLOODING. TEMPS TUESDAY COULD ACTUALLY RISE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE LOW PASSES OFF TO THE NORTH...WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COAST. BEHIND THIS LOW A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW...BUT IT WILL TAKE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR LATE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO DRIVE TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS THE PTYPE ISSUE FOR THE TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON WHEN OR IF A WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR AT 4 OF THE 5 TAF SITES. SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FORECAST IS AT KLBT. FOR THE WINTRY MIX HAVE STARTED FORECAST WITH A FZRAPL FORECAST AROUND 15 TO 16 UTC AT KFLO AND KLBT THEN TRENDED TO RAIN SEVERAL HOURS LATER. AT THE COAST FORECAST IS NOW FOR ALL RAIN BEGINNING AFTER 15 UTC. ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MVFR AROUND 23 UTC AND THEN VFR AFTER 02 TO 03 UTC. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...SEAS 1 TO 2 FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING BUT NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP A BIT. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE COAST BECOMES MORE DEFINED. LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BACKING TO NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIOD WHERE WINDS COULD GUST INTO THE 20 KT RANGE BUT BY EVENING GRADIENT WILL BE DECREASING AND WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND. MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR MORNING UPDATE. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY WILL CREATE CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15-25 KTS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DRIVING WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-5 FT...WITH ISOLATED 6 FTERS POSSIBLE. THESE ARE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO EASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT A SUBTLE INCREASE WILL BE NOTED VERY LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. SEAS SUNDAY WILL INITIALLY BE 3-5 FT THANKS TO A SHORT PERIOD NORTHERLY WIND WAVE...BUT WILL FALL TO 1-2 FT LATE WITH A 10 SEC SE SWELL INCREASING. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE SE STATES...REMAINING WEST OF THE WATERS...BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE INCREASING WINDS ON MONDAY UP TO 15-25 KTS WHILE VEERING FROM EAST TO SOUTH...AND THEN INCREASING EVEN FURTHER TO 20-25 KTS FROM THE SW THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATE...ITS COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BUT WITH STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS. SEAS WILL BUILD VERY RAPIDLY MONDAY FROM 1-2 FT MONDAY MORNING TO 4-7 FT MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 10 FT TUESDAY WHEN THE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION OF THE STRONGEST WINDS...BUT THE LONG FETCH AT LEAST PRESENTS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SUCH HIGH SEAS. WAVES WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT MUCH OF THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE POOR MARINE CONDITIONS WITH HEADLINES A NEAR CERTAINTY.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... HAVE ISSUED YET ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-053-054. NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...REK TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...REK

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