Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 121100 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 700 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 7 AM SATURDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE VICNITY OF SEVERAL REMNANT BOUNDARIES...MAINLY IMPACTING BRUNSWICK AND HORRY COUNTIES. SOME OF THESE HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE DECAYING SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY ALSO APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LAND BREEZE AND A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION OFF THE HORRY COUNTY COAST LAST EVENING. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS DEEPER DRY AIR AND SUNRISE SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ACTIVITY OVER LAND SHOULD BE ENDING/OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING. OTHER THAN ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/WX GRIDS/FORECAST HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: AS OF 2 AM SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ILL DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD INLAND BUT OVERALL IMPACT ON VISIBILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED AS DRY AIR SLOWLY FILTERS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WHAT REMAINS OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TODAY WILL LINGER ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST BUT THE MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MUCH DIFFERENT FROM PAST DAYS. EASTWARD EXPANSION OF MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL INCREASE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DRYING OUT THE MID LEVELS. HEIGHT RISES AND INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. DESPITE WARMER TEMPS THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE/MID LEVEL DRYING WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO AT MOST 20% OR SO. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT FIRST DEVELOPS AND THEN STARTS TO PUSH INLAND. FARTHER INLAND SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME SUSTAINING AS IT MOVES INTO STRONGER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING LEAVING CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UNDER 5 KT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO CONDITIONS IDEAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS LOWS A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY DURING THE SHORT TERM...BUT OVERALL A DRIER AND SUNNIER FEW DAYS THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY. WHILE THE 500MB FLOW BEGINS TO TREND TOWARDS ONE OF HIGH-AMPLIFICATION...THIS WILL NOT OCCUR LOCALLY UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND THUS RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE A NICE FEW DAYS ACROSS THE ILM CWA. SUNDAY WILL BE THE DRIER OF THE TWO...AS EXCEEDINGLY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HELPS KEEP PWATS AROUND 1.25 INCHES...AND EXPECT ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM DURING THE AFTN. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE AREA REMAINS DRY DURING SUNDAY. CONTINUED RETURN FLOW AND THE BEGINNING OF SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL CAUSE INCREASING POP CHANCES FOR MONDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT ONLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION. VERY LATE MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND THUS PRECIP MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF MONDAY WILL FEATURE TYPICAL CAROLINA SUMMERTIME WEATHER. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID 90S WELL INLAND...WITH 90 DEGREE HIGHS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT ON THE BEACHES. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MAXIMUMS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AS THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MINS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE HELD ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 70S...MONDAY NIGHTS LOWS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S EXCEPT WELL INLAND. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL LOAD ACROSS CANADA AND DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...IN A PATTERN THAT IS QUITE ATYPICAL FOR MID-JULY. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH...PROGGED TO BE NEAR -3 SD`S IN INTENSITY...WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY ROTATING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. WHILE THIS WILL KEEP THE TROUGH POSITIVELY TILTED AND THUS MAINTAIN RELATIVELY HIGHER THICKNESSES LOCALLY...TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY WELL BELOW BY THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH VERY EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN STALL IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL CREATE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH POP WITH VERY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LIKELY. WHILE SPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE REGION JUST NORTH OF HERE FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THERE IS AT LEAST SOME RISK ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES INTO THE CWA...DUE TO THE VERY SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS DIFFERENCES. THURSDAY MAY BE A BIT DRIER AS SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT BY FRIDAY...ONCE AGAIN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH THE LOWEST CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED INLAND AT KFLO/KLBT. CALM WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S ALL PROVIDE A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE... CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH FOR AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS AFTER 06Z... WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR INCREASINGLY LIKELY INLAND. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED TEMPO IFR FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS BEFORE 12Z. ONCE THE FOG/STRATUS CLEARS...VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY. LIGHT E-NE WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME S-SE AOB 10 KTS BY AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS DURING THE DAY...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VRB. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 7 AM SATURDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. ACTIVITY HAD BEEN SLOW MOVING BUT LAST FEW SCANS OF KLTX RADAR SHOW PRONOUNCED SOUTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION. SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR ARE PUSHING THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH. WINDS OUTSIDE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SEAS 1 TO 2 FT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: AS OF 2 AM SATURDAY...REMAINS OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL DISSIPATE BY AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST WINDS BEING DRIVEN BY THE SEA BREEZE. EARLY IN THE PERIOD WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST BUT DEVELOPMENT OF SEA BREEZE WILL VEER TO WINDS TO SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS MUCH ABOVE 10 KT ARE NOT EXPECTED...EVEN NEAR SHORE. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO 2 FT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF ONSHORE FLOW. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL VEER TO BECOME SW ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE BECOMES THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE. WHILE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE ONLY AROUND 10 KTS...THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS WILL DRIVE WINDS UP TO 20 KTS MONDAY...HIGHEST LATE IN THE DAY. SEAS INITIALLY WILL BE AROUND 2 FT...BUT AS WINDS VEER TO THE SW AND INCREASE LATE SUNDAY...AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 4-5 FT...AND CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED ON MONDAY. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...POTENT COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS THROUGH MID-WEEK...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WILL CREATE A PINCHED GRADIENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH SW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS REMAINING MOSTLY UNCHANGED BOTH DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-5 FT TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WINDS EASE A BIT AND SEAS FALL TO 2-4 FT LATE.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...III/BJR MARINE...III/JDW

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