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000
FXUS62 KILM 211053
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
653 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds and widespread rain are expected behind a cold front
today. Clearing skies should arrive during the day Monday as
high pressure advances eastward. Warmer temperatures on Tuesday
and Wednesday should cool behind another cold front Wednesday
night. The front should return north late in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
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No major updates to the forecast made at this time.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Resolution of the front is a bit tricky right now but there`s
certainly drier air moving in from the north, maybe a bit less
noticeable at the coast currently. Majority of the activity is
showers near the coast with a larger swath of rain to our west which
will move towards the area through the morning. With some guidance
showing instability lingering near the coast left small thunder
chances through the morning but could see this being overzealous.
More stratiform precip expected for the afternoon as the main swath
of precip moves overhead along with a shortwave trough. With this
shortwave moving offshore tonight the rain will come to an end
around midnight, but the main trough will still be approaching from
the west, providing some enhancement. Rain chances may stick around
longer at the coast because of this. Otherwise, temperatures will
also be difficult, highs likely happening early this morning with
decreasing temperatures throughout the day amidst rain and clouds.
Highs largely in the mid 60s, a bit cooler inland and a bit warmer
near the coast. Lows in the mid to upper 40s with continued
cloudiness overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An impressive upper trough will push eastward across the
Carolinas during the day Monday. Even though the surface front
will be located hundreds of miles offshore, there will be
lingering mid level moisture up above 700 mb that could lead to
a little light rain along the coast during the morning hours.
Forecast PoPs are only 20-30 percent and any clouds and precipitation
should end as the trough axis aloft pushes overhead during the
day. Inland areas should clear out by noon but it may take
another few hours to get full sunshine to reach the coast
Monday. Forecast highs are in the low-mid 60s, coolest at the
coast.

High pressure moving across the Mid South should reach the
Carolinas late Monday night, providing good radiational cooling
within an already cool and dry airmass. Surprisingly (given how
warm it was this weekend) lows should fall deep into the 40s all
the way down to the beaches. Normally colder inland spots could
dip into the 30s, although the risk of frost should remain low
in populated areas.

The surface high will move offshore Tuesday afternoon with a
weak seabreeze keeping the beaches several degrees cooler than
inland areas: upper 60s versus lower 70s. With the high nudging
farther offshore Tuesday night lows should moderate to 45-50,
except lower 50s on the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The passage of a strong upper system across New England on
Wednesday should push a cold front southward, reaching the
Carolinas Wednesday night. Heavily modified Canadian maritime
air streaming in behind the front will likely hold Thursday`s
highs in the lower 70s inland with upper 60s the beaches.

A large swath of southerly winds developing in advance of the
next synoptic low over the northern Plains late in the week
should lift the front northward, again allowing warmer and more
humid air to spread across the Carolinas. The timing on this
airmass transition is quite uncertain however: the 00z Canadian
and ECMWF are at least 24 hours quicker than the 00z GFS. This
brings particular uncertainty to temperatures Friday afternoon
into Saturday since the retreating front may have a 10-15
degree temperature gradient along it. Rain chances are no higher
than 10 percent given ridging aloft and W-NW mid level flow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Unsettled weather will lead to restrictions through the 12Z TAF
period in the form of LIFR/IFR VSBYs/CIGs. Tried to improve
timing on some restrictions but it`s going to be showery
probably through the morning with hit or miss restrictions. Rain
will become more widespread through the afternoon as the main
axis moves overhead, moving offshore towards midnight. VCSH
could stick around at coastal terminals with conditions
improving towards the end of the period as drier air starts to
settle in.

Extended Outlook...Flight categories gradually into Monday
morning. High pressure building in late Monday through Thursday
will return dominant VFR.
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&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...A stalled front will lead to rainy conditions over
the waters today. NNE winds will increase to near 15-20 kts during
the afternoon as the PG tightens due to a disturbance aloft, but
gusts are expected to stay just below SCA thresholds at this time.
Seas 3-5 ft.

Monday through Thursday Night...This morning`s cold front should
be located a few hundred miles off the Southeast coast Monday
morning. Low pressure developing well east of Savannah along the
front should drag down a 15-20 knot north wind with gusts to 25
kt across our coastal waters Monday, strongest south of Cape
Fear. This is just shy of Small Craft Advisory criteria. After
collaboration with NWS CHS we`ll mention an SCA is possible
Monday but will not raise an advisory at this time.

High pressure moving eastward across the Mid South should reach
the coastal Carolinas late Monday night into Tuesday. Gradually
weakening northeasterly winds are expected as the high
approaches, then veering southeasterly Tuesday afternoon as the
high moves offshore. Increasing southwest winds are expected
Wednesday as the high moves offshore.

A cold front moving southward along the Eastern Seaboard should
reach the Carolinas Wednesday night, veering wind directions
north to northeasterly for Thursday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
UPDATE...LEW
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...TRA/LEW