Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 051731 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1231 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISSISSIPPI WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A QUICK BOUT OF RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW MIXING IN. ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...WELL I GOT THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST RIGHT...BUT I NEGLECTED TO REALIZE THAT THE EXTRA BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WOULD TURN INTO A LAYER OF STRATOCUMULUS GIVEN A DOSE OF SUNSHINE. DRIER AIR IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD AND SHOULD ERODE THESE CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON EVEN AT THE BEACHES. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN EARLIER THOUGHT BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BE LIMIT HOW FAR WE CAN CLIMB. DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS... MOISTURE IS THINNING RAPIDLY AND SKIES ARE BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION PUSHES EAST. LAST NIGHT`S LOW IS ZOOMING NE AWAY OFF THE NJ COAST BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE 12Z MHX AND CHS SOUNDINGS SHOWED 35 KNOT (40 MPH) WINDS JUST 1000 AND 1500 FEET UP, RESPECTIVELY. THE BELT OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL PASS OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH GRADUALLY WEAKENING WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. VERY FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST HIGHS TODAY, GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. I HAVE RAISED FORECAST DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST BY A FEW DEGREES WHICH WILL MAKE SOME IMPACT ON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE HIGH WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH 00/06Z MOS LOWS LOOK TOO COLD GIVEN THE WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE RELATIVELY NICE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN A ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW EVIDENT VIA IR SATELLITE OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE. THIS WILL SPREAD RAIN MAINLY ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY ENDING MIDDAY SUNDAY. THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN JUST ABOUT THE SAME AS PREVIOUS CYCLES...SHOWING ALL LIQUID. THE GFS MAY HAVE COOLED BY A DEGREE OR SO BUT TOP DOWN PROCEDURES ARE CONSISTENT WITH ALL RAIN. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT IF GUIDANCE COOLS BY A DEGREE OR TWO MORE SNOW COULD BE INTRODUCED. LUMBERTON IS MOST INTERESTING WITH BOTH THE MAV AND MET SHOWING 31 DEGREES FOR A LOW. WE HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THESE NUMBERS. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN A BIT WITH THE CLEARING SUNDAY AND RAIN MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CLEARING AND COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY AND COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN INITIAL ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ESSENTIALLY ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE AXIS IS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. A REINFORCING SHOT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY. OVERALL THE MEX GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE MORE OPTIMISTIC NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. WE CONTINUE TO GO MUCH BELOW THIS BUT ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE IT SEEMS AS THE WINTER SEASON GETS LONG IN THE TOOTH WITH LONGER DAYS AND HIGHER SUN ANGLES THE MEX NUMBERS TREND MORE REALISTIC. SOME DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE PERHAPS PLAYING A ROLE IN THESE NUMBERS AS WELL. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW CIGS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND 3KFT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. GUSTS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...AND NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 5 KTS. SATURDAY...VFR CONTINUES WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH MVFR. VFR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.OOK...BECOMING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS... A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NJ COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISSISSIPPI. WIND GUSTS HAVE REACHED 35 KNOTS SEVERAL TIMES AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. IGNORE THOSE 47 KT GUSTS FROM BUOY 41037 ABOUT 25 MILES EAST OF WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AS THIS BUOY HISTORICALLY HAS A LARGE HIGH BIAS. THE BELT OF STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD PASS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON. VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO WIND SPEEDS...BUT I HAVE HAD TO TRIM BACK WAVE HEIGHT FORECASTS BY ABOUT 30 PERCENT GIVEN LATEST BUOY DATA. WE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY ALONG THE SC COAST IF CURRENT TRENDS IN WAVE HEIGHTS CONTINUE. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SATURDAY WILL FEATURE NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE APPALACHIANS. EXPECT AN INCREASE INTO 20-25 KNOTS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND THE GRADIENT INCREASES. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS SEAS RISE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS. SATURDAY WILL SEE A PERIOD OF LOWER SEAS IN A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE DAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY IN A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS WITH 10-15 LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL BE MORE OF A RUGGED DAY FOR MARINERS WITH WEST WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS AND MAYBE A LITTLE HIGHER AT TIMES DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. SEAS WILL BE JUST A TAD UNDER SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA MONDAY BUT JUMP BACK UP TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHER VALUES OFFSHORE VIA THE FLOW. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL

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