Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS62 KILM 190800
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
300 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017
Weak high pressure today will move offshore tonight. A series of
mid level systems will bring unsettled conditions Friday through
Monday. The strongest system will move across Sunday and into
early Monday. High pressure will build back in toward the middle
of next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...High pressure will be centered to our N
today and will move offshore tonight. We expect a dry day. A sunny
morning will be followed by increasing clouds this afternoon and
especially tonight, from SW to NE.
The main area of surface low pressure across the Ark-La-Tex this
morning will lift into the Midwest tonight. Its associated frontal
system will approach the Carolinas through tonight. As the southern
tail of a mid-level shortwave trough pivots across the area, it will
help to develop weak low pressure offshore, along the front, Fri
morning. The main surge of showers is expected to reach portions of
the I-95 corridor with the showers becoming more diffuse with
eastward extent. Any showers will hold off until the early morning
hours. Will not introduce any showers along and E of EYF to GGE
until daybreak or shortly thereafter.
Highs today will still be above normal, lower to mid 60s which
actually represents a 10 to 15 degree cool down from Wed. Lows
tonight will be warmer than this morning, given all the cloud cover.
We are expecting mainly upper 40s and lower 50s with perhaps a few
mid 40s across the NE quadrant of the FA. Low temps will be reached
in the eve. Temps should stabilize and then rise slightly overnight.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...The main area of low pressure will be moving
across the Midwest on Fri. Its trailing frontal system will advance
into the Carolinas. A mid-level shortwave trough is expected to
spawn weak low pressure offshore along the front Fri. The low is
expected to then move away, but the front should stay in fairly
close proximity. Thus, the forecast remains unsettled and is
trending wetter than this time Wed. The initial surge of showers
should become more diffuse as they travel from SW to NE. The highest
risk for measurable rainfall will be across the I-95 corridor. Will
show POPs trending lower as the shortwave energy lifts out with
offshore showers becoming dominate. There is a potential for one to
possibly two tenths of an inch of rainfall late tonight into Fri. We
may catch 12 hours or so where POPs are below threshold as the front
gets knocked back by the departing coastal low Fri night. However,
by Sat, isentropic lift and a series of upper level troughs will
bring showers back into the forecast well ahead of a strong area of
low pressure along the Gulf coast. This time the rainfall will be
more significant. Given mixed layer CAPE values rise to around 500
J/kg Sat afternoon, will introduce a slight chance for thunderstorms
which may persist into Sat night.&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...Deep cyclone with complex frontal
structure will affect the area Sunday and into the day Monday.
Initially mid level low pressure will be moving across the Tennessee
Valley with a cold front extending southward into the Gulf of Mexico
and a warm front extending eastward bisecting the Carolinas. Sunday
will see warm sector showers and thunderstorms somewhat disorganized
in nature. The more organized convective line moves across late
Sunday night into Monday morning. The last few cycles of the
operational GFS show a kind of split in the line as the warm
conveyer belt shuns the best moisture off to the east and northwest
via a strong dry slot. This could reduce QPF amounts and severe
potential but good coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms is
expected nonetheless. Beyond this, a zonal pattern develops at the
mid levels which turns more southwesterly in time with another front
approaching very late. No changes to the temperature forecast which
are of course warm early on dropping back just a little Tuesday and
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 06Z...VFR conditions throughout the taf period. Surface
high pressure will build in from the northwest early this
morning and from the north this afternoon. The center of this
high will slide off the Outer Banks this evening. Thin to opaque
cirrus will move overhead today becoming thicker with possible
altocu clouds this evening as the mid-level ridge axis moves
overhead. Looking at N to NE winds less than 10 kt except
becoming E to ESE in direction this evening.
Extended Outlook...IFR ceilings and vsbys are possible,
especially across the inland terminals Fri night into Sat
morning as a warm front and rainfall event develops. IFR
conditions possible late Sun into Mon as a strong low
pressure system impacts the area.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...High pressure today will move offshore
tonight. NE winds 10 to 15 kt today will veer to easterly this eve
and then SE overnight. Wind speeds tonight will be 10 kt or less.
Seas of 2 to 4 ft this morning will subside to 2 ft or less this
afternoon and tonight.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...A warm front will move into the area from
the SW on Fri. A mid-level shortwave should spawn a weak area of low
pressure along this front offshore. The weak low will move away, but
the front should stall/waver in close proximity Sat and Sat night as
strong low pressure begins to advance east along the Gulf Coast.
Expect southerly winds to hold on across the waters through the
period. At this time, they are not expected to exceed 10 to 15 kt.
Seas will be 2 to 3 ft. Higher winds and seas are expected late in
the weekend when Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely to
materialize. As dewpoints approach a critical window Sat, there may
be an opportunity for sea fog to develop.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...Southerly winds will pick up steam during the
day Sunday as a potent storm system moves closer to the area. Speeds
increase from 10-15 knots early to a healthy 15-20 knots late in the
evening. The strongest winds move across early Monday morning
reaching a maximum of 20-25 knots. A southwesterly flow develops
later Monday behind the front which is essentially a slight wind
direction shift. Speeds decrease to 15-20 knots. Significant seas
will build as well with small craft conditions developing by midday
Sunday and persisting through the remainder of the period. Could see
some 8-10 footers at maximum height across the outer waters early