Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 262347 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 647 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...WARMER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THE COOL DOWN WILL BE MODEST. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 6 PM WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE SHOWS SHARP CLEARING LINE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST OF NJ CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER OF THE NC COAST SO STILL NOT SURE SKIES WILL FULLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE NORTH OF THE AREA AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK SURFACE LOW...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MID LEVELS APPEAR TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP BUT DO EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 2 PM FOLLOWS:AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW WILL ADVECT IN PLENTY OF DRY AND COOL AIR THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH PAST 50 UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER. AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL HOLD RIGHT AROUND 50 AS CAA OFFSETS ANY SUNSHINE. MOST PLACES WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE BEFORE SUNSET EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW COLUMN DRYING OUT WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 5K FT LINGERING THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS BUT NOT EXPECTING TOTAL SKI CLEARING. PCP WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST THIS MORNING WILL DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH BY THIS EVENING. STRONG CAA WILL BRING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 15C IN WARM AIR MASS JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW THIS MORNING DOWN CLOSE TO 0C BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS HOLDING RIGHT AROUND 50 THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO DROP THIS EVENING. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE AROUND THE BASE OF A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH REACHING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS. AS THIS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SW AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER VA/NC BORDER. STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PCP WILL HOLD JUST TO OUR NORTH BUT SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME MOISTURE WITH SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED AND MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES IN AN OTHERWISE DRY AIR MASS. SOUNDING SHOW AN ALMOST SATURATED LAYER FORMING BETWEEN 6 AND 9K FT JUST AROUND DAYBREAK. OVERALL EXPECT CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE BY DAYBREAK. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT DOWN BELOW 40 MOST PLACES BY EARLY MORNING WITH COLDEST READINGS INLAND.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BOTTOM OUT AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THU MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING OUT THROUGH THE DAY. AS IT SKIRTS THE FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH...SUFFICIENT LIFT AND DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...FROM BENNETTSVILLE AND DILLON TO NEAR WHITEVILLE AND BURGAW AND POINTS N...DESPITE THE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE ABOVE 10 KFT. QPF WILL BE MINIMAL AND MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD BE ISOLATED SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. SUNSHINE ON THU SHOULD BE MOST PREVALENT SOUTH OF A FLO TO MYR LINE WITH PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT. COLD AIR WILL BE REINFORCED BEHIND THIS TROUGH WITH TEMPS AT 850 MB DROPPING TO MINUS 3 TO MINUS 5 DEG FRI MORNING AND THIS CHILLY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP TO LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH...SO NO RISK FOR EVEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEYOND THU AND IN FACT IT LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WANING DAYS OF NOV. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH ONLY MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED ON FRI. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THU NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW MID 20S MAY OCCUR IN WIND PROTECTED COLD SPOTS. LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S...WITH A FEW LOWER 20S INLAND WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS ABLE TO MAXIMIZE LONGEST.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A RATHER UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND/PATTERN CHANGE THE HEADLINES. THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL START OUT DUE ZONAL...500MB HEIGHTS WEST TO EAST ARE ALL BUT FLAT INITIALLY AND VEERS SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE FEATURES INCLUDE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY THAT BRIEFLY SERVES TO TEMPER THE WARMUP NEXT WEEK. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY ABOVE MONDAY WITH THE BRIEF SETBACK TUESDAY. A QUICK RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY AIRMASS MODIFICATION AS THE CATALYST AS THE RETURN FLOW WILL PLAY A FACTOR JUST BEYOND THE PERIOD. NO POPS THROUGHOUT. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...MVFR STRATOCU CONTINUES TO THIN THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER UP THE EAST COAST. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 02-03Z...WITH KILM LIKELY THE LAST TAF SITE TO LOSE ITS MVFR CIGS. GRADUAL CLEARING AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF CALM/LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT COULD SUPPORT PATCHY MVFR BR...AS THE GROUND IS STILL MOIST FROM RECENT RAINFALL. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO MVFR VSBYS BUT MOVED UP THE TIMING BY SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON THE EXPECTED CHANGES IN WIND SPEED OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY THU WITH A SECONDARY SFC LOW APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS...SO ANY VSBY ISSUES WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 03-09Z. THE LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE VFR AS GUSTY W-NW WINDS 10-20 KT PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE MORNING FOG ON MONDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6 PM WEDNESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS GRADIENT RELAXES. LOW PRESSURE EXITING NORTHEAST HAS RESULTING IN WINDS BACKING TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND DIRECTION WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME WESTERLY. LATE IN THE PERIOD SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE NORTH OF THE AREA. LATEST OBS SUGGEST CONDITIONS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS SO HAVE ELECTED TO CANCEL THE SCA A BIT EARLY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 2 PM FOLLOWS:SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE NEAR SHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 4 FT WHILE OUTER WATERS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE. ALL LOCAL WATERS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING AS OFF SHORE FLOW DIMINISHES TO 10 TO 15 KT. WIND WILL BACK FROM NW-W TODAY TO WSW THROUGH TONIGHT AS TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST. MODELS SHOW A WEAK SFC LOW CROSSING THE HATTERAS COAST RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURS WHICH WILL PRODUCE A TIGHTER GRADIENT AND INCREASE IN WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS. THIS WILL KICK SEAS BACK UP NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ONCE AGAIN. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT AN UPTICK IN WINDS DURING AND JUST BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT OUT THU AFTERNOON AND EVE...BUT REINFORCING COLD AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED INTO FRI. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE THINKING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. HOWEVER...AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT ON THU AND MAY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...VERY STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST AND FAVORABLE FOR MARINERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO MOVE...CENTERED EAST TO WEST BASICALLY OVERHEAD. THIS WIND/PRESSURE PATTERN LEADS TO SEAS OF 1-3 FEET MAINLY OF SHORTER PERIODS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...BJR

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