Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 270736 CCA AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NEAR TERM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 336 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO MID- WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM GREENSBORO THROUGH HICKORY AND INTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN THE MILD SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS JUST LONG ENOUGH AFTER 12Z/8 AM EDT TO KEEP TODAY`S DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE INTO THE 50S BY 10 AM...NOT TO RECOVER DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVERWHELMS WHAT LITTLE HEAT IS ABLE TO FILTER THROUGH THE CLOUDS. MOS GUIDANCE TYPICALLY STRUGGLES IN THESE SITUATIONS AND MY FORECAST IS A LARGELY BLEND OF THE RAW 00Z NAM AND 00Z WRF-NMM MODELS. PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD COME IN THREE WAVES. WAVE #1 IS CRAWLING UP THE COAST NOW AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE. THIS LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ADDING TO THE RAIN`S INTENSITY IN SPOTS. WAVE #2 WILL BE CENTERED ON THE COLD FRONT ITSELF AND SHOULD BEGIN FOR FLORENCE WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...SPREADING DOWN TOWARD THE COAST BY NOON. THIS SHOULD BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THE THREE PRECIP EVENTS...WITH FORECAST POPS 80-90 PERCENT AND QPF .10 TO .25 INCHES. WAVE #3 OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES OVERHEAD AND ENCOUNTERS A LITTLE 800-700 MB MOISTURE THAT SNEAKED SOUTH OF THE APPALACHIANS...AVOIDED THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW. ALTHOUGH I AM CAPPING POPS TONIGHT AT 20 PERCENT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECASTS EARLIER IN THE WEEK INCLUDED THE MENTION OF SNOW TONIGHT...BUT DESPITE THE VERY COLD 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES ANALYSIS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE FREEZING LEVEL NEVER MAKES IT DOWN BELOW 2000-2500 FEET AGL...TOO DEEP A "WARM" LAYER FOR SNOW TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. GIVEN CLOUDS AND STEADY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT I AM FORECASTING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE MOS NUMBERS...WHICH APPEAR TO BE TOO COOL GIVEN THE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THE RAW GFS/NAM MODELS LOOK MUCH MORE REASONABLE WITH UPPER 30S INLAND AND AROUND 40 AT THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...CLEARING SKIES...BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND MOSITURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 50S. THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO SUNDAY MORNING LOWS. ALL GUIDANCE IS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING SANS A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE SREF GUIDANCE. THERE IS STILL SOME WIND EXPECTED AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. MODEL FIELDS SHOW ONE FINAL DECENT VORT ROTATING ACROSS SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. STILL ALL SIGNS POINT TO A SIGNIFICANT FREEZE. BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT RAISE THE FREEZE WATCH. I WOULD ANTICIPATE ALL AREAS BEING IN THE WATCH. NOT A LOT OF WARMING FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL PROFILES ARE SLOW TO RECOVER. WINDS WILL DROP OFF HOWEVER MAKING IT FEEL NICER. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS AS A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ALOFT. A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN UNEVENTFUL FASHION TUESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS OF FLEETING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BEYOND THIS THE PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES VERY DIFFUSE AS THIS BOUNDARY LINGERS TO THE SOUTH THEN WASHES OUT WITH A RETURN FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST STARTS OUT ON THE COOL SIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH READINGS WARMING TO EXCEED CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...BEST CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS WILL BE AT THE COASTAL AIRPORT AS A WAVE OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM COASTAL GA/SC. THIS COULD "SEED" THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS...PARTICULARLY AT CRE/MYR. FARTHER INLAND RAIN CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER...HOWEVER LOW CIGS MAY DEVELOP HERE AS WELL DUE TO WEAK RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH THE CLOUDS ALOFT ALLOWING THE SURFACE TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP. FROPA SHOULD OCCUR AT THE INLAND TERMINALS 14-15Z...17-18Z FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS INITIALLY WITH IFR MOST OF THE DAY. IFR IMPROVING TO MVFR IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW IN THE NC/SC WESTERN PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS WILL REACH THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS COLD AIR BLASTS OFFSHORE. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO HIGH PRESSURE UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...MAINTAINING A VERY COLD AIRMASS FOR THIS LATE IN MARCH. SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE DIED DOWN TO 10-15 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND SPEED OR DIRECTION SHOULD OCCUR UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONT ARRIVES...PROBABLY IN THE 1-3 PM TIMEFRAME. SEAS CURRENTLY 3-5 FT ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND 4-6 FT ACROSS THE NC WATERS WILL CHANGE LITTLE UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN THE NORTH WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA HEIGHTS NEARSHORE TO DIMINISH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...HEALTHY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SLOWLY ACROSS THE WATERS. SPEEDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT SPEEDS TO BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. THE FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE RETURN FLOW AND AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY AND OFFSHORE WITH A RANGE OF 3-5 FEET. HEIGHTS BACK OFF CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY TO 1-3 FEET. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...A DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS LATE MONDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET. A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TUESDAY A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS AND IS BRIEFLY STRONG WITH 15-20 KNOTS AS WELL. UNDER A QUICK MOVING ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT THE HIGH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LEAVING LIGHTER WIND FIELDS. SEAS DROP BACK TUESDAY AS WELL. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250- 252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...TRA/MRR

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