Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 281924 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 324 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD AIR-MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A VERY WEAK BUT DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF IN CONTROL OF THE EASTERN U.S...FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST. THE UPPER TROF NORTH TO SOUTH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE ILM CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. TWO REMAINING MID-LEVEL VORTS TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF...AND TRACK ACROSS OR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FA...1 LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE FINAL ONE AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OR ACCOMPANYING CLOUDS WITH THIS 1ST VORT DUE TO THE AID OF THE DAYS INSOLATION AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE 2ND VORT WILL PASS ACROSS THE FA AT THE TIME WHEN THE LARGE AMPLITUDE TROF AXIS IS NEARLY OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS. WITH NO LONGER AVBL MOISTURE...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CLOUDS WITH THIS 2ND OR FINAL UPPER VORT. AT THE SFC...THE FA REMAINS UNDER CONTROL OF A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTN...THAT WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK SUN. ITS CENTER REMAINS JUST FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT A SFC PG...EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE RELAXING AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO KEEP SFC WINDS ACTIVE ACROSS THE FA ALL NIGHT LONG. THE WINDS WILL BE IN A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE THE UPPER VORT SWINGS THRU...BUT DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE OR GO CALM. THE FREEZE WARNING FOR SUNDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. IT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE ILM CWA...INCLUDING THE COASTAL COUNTIES...FROM 2AM SUNDAY TIL 10AM SUNDAY. FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD...PROGGED 850 TEMPS WILL DROP TO AND RANGE FROM -7 ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS TO -4.5 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA. PROGGED 1000-850MB THICKNESSES TO RANGE BETWEEN 1276 NORTH...TO 1290 SOUTH. AND OLD RELIABLE...PROGGED 1000-500MB THICKNESSES TO RANGE BETWEEN 525 NORTH...TO 532 SOUTH. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 20S INLAND... TO AROUND 30 AT THE COAST. GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE PRETTY MUCH IDENTICAL FOR TONIGHT/S LOWS AND SEE NO REASON TO DETOUR FROM THEIR MINS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...REGION WILL BE RECOVERING FROM RECORD COLD SUNDAY MORNING AS AN ARCTIC TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COLD...WITH HIGHS TEMPS RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH...BUT AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE THE LOW-TO-MID 50S AT LEAST BEARABLE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY...AND WEAK DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS MUCH WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. MINS BY SUNRISE MONDAY WILL FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT SW WINDS KEEPING LOWS FROM TRULY BOTTOMING OUT ONCE AGAIN. MONDAY WILL START WITH A QUICK WARM-UP AS RETURN FLOW PERSIST AROUND AN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS DRIVEN BY VORT ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW FLOW...AND A RAPID FROPA IS ANTICIPATED. SPC HAS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITHIN THE GENERAL RISK FOR THE SWODY3...BUT PLAN TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK, AND THE BEST JET ENERGY STAYS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL CWA. A PERIOD OF HIGH POP IS WARRANTED AND WILL BUMP POP TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY FOR MONDAY AFTN. MOST OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE PRE- FRONTAL...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLATED TO DROP ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY EVE. TEMPS MONDAY WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT MORE MORE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S BEFORE THE SHOWERS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 40S BENEATH CLEARING SKY CONDITIONS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DURING TUE DRY W-NW FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN. FOR WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH H5 RIDGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL CANADA WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUPPORT FOR A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MID-WEEK. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE BELOW CLIMO AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS BY MID- WEEK. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE IN THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 4-5 KFT RANGE TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE TOWARD OR AFTER SUNSET. SKC EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NW WINDS INVOF 10KT WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT OR SO WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH TO AOB 5 KT THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...EXPECT WINDS FROM THE NW IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT UPPER S/W TROF...NW-NNW WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE 20 KT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF AXIS AND 1 LAST S/W TROF ALOFT...WILL BOTH MOVE ACROSS AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS AND OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CENTER OF THE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH TO DROP TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK SUN. AS A RESULT...ONE LAST NW-N WIND SURGE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE FOR LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE PRE-DAWN SUN HOURS...BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO 10-20 KT BY DAYBREAK. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE AS SEEN WITH LATEST BUOY REPORTS FROM 41110 AND 41108. THE CURRENT OFFSHORE WINDS AND FORECAST WILL RESULT IN A LIMITED FETCH FOR SEAS TO BUILD UPON...AND THUS WILL KEEP THEM LIMITED BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT THRUOUT THIS FCST. WAVEWATCH3 SEAS OUTPUT WAS RELIED UPON FOR THIS FCST. AVERAGE PERIODS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 3.5 TO 4.5 SECOND RANGE...INDICATIVE OF THE DOMINATE WIND DRIVEN WAVE CHOP. NO TRUE GROUND SWELL TO SPEAK OF OTHER THEN AN EASTERLY 1 FOOT OR LESS 10-11 SECOND PERIOD BEING REPORTED AT THE LOCAL BUOYS AT 41110 AND 41108. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THE WATERS DURING SUNDAY...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EARLY MORNING SLOWLY RELAXING AND THEN BACKING TO THE SW LATE AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS BOTH SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT FROM VASTLY DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. THESE SW WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...REACHING 20-25 KTS BEFORE VEERING QUICKLY TO THE NW MONDAY NIGHT AT 10-15 KTS BEHIND THE FROPA. SEAS BEGIN SUNDAY 2-3 FT BUT WILL FALL QUICKLY ON THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...BECOMING JUST 1-2 FT MOST OF THE DAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD BACK TO 3-5 FT MONDAY...POSSIBLY WITH A FEW 6 FTERS IF THE SW FETCH PERSISTS LONG ENOUGH...BEFORE FALLING BACK BEHIND THE FROPA. ATTM NO SCA IS EXPECTED...BUT CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH THRESHOLDS. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL QUICKLY BREAK DOWN DURING TUESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FLOW WILL VEER TO AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY THEN NORTHEAST-EAST FLOW PREVAILS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE INTO THURSDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN BUILD TO 3-5 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS UP ON THURSDAY...AND WAVEWATCH APPEARS TO BE A FOOT ON THE LOW SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THU TIME FRAME. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096- 099-105>110. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...DCH/RAN

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