Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 252340 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 740 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will expand across the Carolinas, bringing uncomfortable levels of heat and humidity this week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening. The chances increase a little this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 730 PM Monday...While isolated convection continues across portions of the Carolinas this evening, conditions remain quiet across northeast SC and southeast NC. Expect this pattern to continue overnight, with nearly clear skies and warm and humid conditions. Overnight low temperatures will dip into the low to mid 70`s across the inland areas, with upper 70`s along the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday...Upper level ridging not only stays centered just off the coast through the period but it strengthens. This will bolster the heat being pumped into the area and both days will feature a return of area-wide Heat Advisory. Have already gone ahead and raised for Tuesday after collab with neighboring WFOs. Rainfall chances will be minimal both days. Tuesday the piedmont trough appears to have a better chance than the sea breeze. Slight POPS are warranted area-wide on Wednesday as a weak disturbance rolls by but it seems quite likely that the suppressing effects of the ridge should win out. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM Monday...The mid level pattern will be slowly transitioning from the massive ridge across the south to more of a weak trough across the Mississippi valley early in the period. The trough pushes east through the weekend but dampens. The associated cold front remains well to the north or west of the area. Precipitable waters will increase however thus leading to increasing pops, mainly for the weekend. Nothing on the synoptic scale to make a dent in temperature trends as 850mb readings are a degree or two either side of 20 degrees C. More coverage of showers and thunderstorms may provide temporary relief during the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 00Z...Some isolated fog around sunrise, otherwise VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. A decent subsidence inversion will keep convection at bay, however a few isolated storms are possible, particularly along the resultant. South southwest flow will continue, becoming gusty by midday. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered afternoon convection through Saturday may create periods of MVFR/IFR. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 730 PM Monday...Southwest winds will continue tonight across the waters with sustained winds around 10 to 15 kts, as ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the current weather pattern. Seas of 2 to 3 ft are expected. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday...Conditions change slightly heading from the near term into the short term. We will see a return of normal wind and waves as piedmont troughiness tightens the gradient along the western fringe of the Bermuda high. So rather than seeing such light winds and seas as today we expect SW 10-15 to return with the occasional gust to 20kt. This should allow 3 ft seas to return to the forecast, mainly away from the coastline in the largely coast- parallel flow. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...The marine community can expect south to southwest winds through the period. Wind speeds will be 10-15 knots with the possibility of a diurnal increase with low level jetting. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-053>056. NC...Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ087-096-099- 105>110. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...SGL SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...43

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