Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 260229 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1029 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND MAINTAINING WARM CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS EARLIER CU FIELD HAS DISSIPATED WITH ONLY SOME THIN CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES. MEMORIAL WEEKEND WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT ON A FAIR AND QUIET NOTE WITH THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM SKY COVER AND IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND EARLY ON TUESDAY. A SWATH OF 6-7 KFT CLOUDS WAS SPREADING NE ACROSS NE SC INTO SE NC THIS AFTERNOON OVERTOP SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS. THE LOWER CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE INTO EVENING...BUT THE HIGHER STRATO- CUMULUS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING. WILL OPT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING HERE AS THE NATURE OF THE DECK APPEAR THIN ENOUGH FOR BREAKS...AND FARTHER UPSTREAM SCATTERED. AS THE TREND TOWARD PARTIAL CLEARING COMMENCES THIS EVENING...A POTENTIAL FOR LOWER BASED STRATUS IS POSSIBLE...THUS WILL HOLD PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING OVERNIGHT AND FAVORED INLAND. MINIMUMS AT DAYBREAK TUE SHOULD END UP IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...PERSISTENT MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE A LITTLE OFFSHORE WITH VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE IMPORTANTLY...SOME RECOVERY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.75 INCHES...MORESO INLAND. SOME GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING CONVECTION FOR A FEW CYCLES MOST NOTABLY THE GFS AND NAM SUITES. BASICALLY THE SAME FOR WEDNESDAY. CERTAINLY DONT EXPECT ANY DEEP CONVECTION AS THE CAPE PROFILE IS VERY LONG AND NARROW AND SHEAR IS VERY LOW. WILL MAINTAIN THE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE LOSES IS INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WITH NEAR SEASONABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD POP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A HEALTHY SEABREEZE THAT STABILIZES THE COASTAL AREAS SO INLAND ZONES WILL BE FAVORED. ENHANCING THIS TREND WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE SWRLY FLOW SKIRTING BY JUST TO OUR WEST. NOT MUCH CHANGES ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR THE ABSENCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. BARRING ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LINGERING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME QUITE ISOLATED AND ONCE AGAIN LIMITED TO AREAS WELL INLAND. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VERY LIGHT DEEP LAYER FLOW. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE WARM SEASON BERMUDA HIGH FAILS TO FALL INTO PLACE, INSTEAD BEING DISPLACED QUITE TO THE EAST THOUGH A RIDGE AXIS MAY EXTEND TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE END RESULT WILL BE SCANT MOISTURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN AND NO APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/BRIEF IFR DUE TO FOG AND LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REIGN OVER THE AREA. VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KTS. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A DECENT CHANCE FOR MVFR/BRIEF IFR DUE TO FOG AND LOW CIGS AS WINDS BECOME AOB 5 KTS...THUS HAVE KEPT IN GOING FORECAST. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR WITH FEW/SCT MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AND SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE EXTREME INLAND AREAS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PATCHY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW 2 TO 3 FT SEAS WITH LIGHT SELY WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE GOING FORECAST AND SEE NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: 5-6 SECOND WAVE PERIODS AND SIGNIFICANT SEA HEIGHTS OF 2-3 FT EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ANTICIPATED. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN 10-15 KT SE WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK. GUSTS TO 18 KT NEAR SHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL EASE SEVERAL KNOTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STANDARD SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME INCREASE VIA THE SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FOUR FOOTER OR TWO ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...VERY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE DISPLACED EASTWARD FROM ITS NORMAL WARM SEASON POSITION CLOSER TO BERMUDA. THIS RESULTS IN LIGHTER WIND AND A BIT MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT THAN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TYPIFIED BY BERMUDA HIGH. DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD MAY HOVER NEAR THE NORMAL WIND WAVE VS SWELL BORDER OF 7 TO 8 SECONDS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THIS SHOULD HELP TO MAKE THE 2 TO 3 OR OCCASIONALLY 4 FT SEAS BE MORE MANAGEABLE COMPARED TO A SHORTER/CHOPPIER DOMINANT WAVE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SGL MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB/SHK

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