Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 141724 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 124 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. PERIODS OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR AT TIMES BUT THE FLOODING THREAT HAS ABATED. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH EARLY TUESDAY AND DISSIPATE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MID WEEK BRINGING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1045 AM SUNDAY...ADJUSTMENTS TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE LATE MORNING UPDATE TO PERHAPS TRIM A FEW DEGREES IN AREAS GIVEN THE SOLID OVERCAST AND COOL AIR ADVECTION REGIME FIRMLY IN PLACE PRESENTLY. LATEST LAMP AND RAPID UPDATE MODELS PROJECT MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE AREA WHICH LOOKS VERY REASONABLE SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THESE VALUES FOR MAX T TODAY. A LITTLE MILDER NEAR THE COAST WHERE NE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MILDER OCEAN AIR ONSHORE...SO UPPER 70S AROUND 80 BEACHES. MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING AND STABLE LOW-LEVELS WILL KEEP PCPN AMOUNTS VERY LIMITED TODAY DESPITE DEEP COLUMN MOISTURE STILL OVER-SITTING THE AREA. IT HAS BEEN DISMANTLED FROM BELOW BUT SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TSTM SC ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH AFTERNOON INTO PEAK DIURNAL WARMING. THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. POST FRONTAL AIR MASS IS USHERING LOW-LEVEL COOLING ALONG WITH DECREASING ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY. THIS WILL SHARPLY CURTAIL STOUT VERTICAL CONVECTION CAPABLE OF GENERATING INTENSE RAIN RATES OR LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SE NC AND NE SC. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PATCHY DZ OR STRATIFORM LIGHT PCPN IS STILL ANTICIPATED BUT THE THREAT OF FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE AREA. TRIMMING OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WAS NEEDED AND AM EXPECTING A STUBBORN CLOUD COVER TODAY IN THE NE SURGE TO AID IN HOLDING MAXIMUMS WELL INTO THE 70S AND SOME SITES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AROUND 70 THIS AFTN. MINIMUMS OVERNIGHT ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD. ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST THE NE WIND SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS ELEVATED SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE MILD SSTS IN PLACE INSHORE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING MONDAY...CONTINUING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER BUT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH...WAA WILL FOLLOW AND HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY RISE TO SEASONABLE VALUES FINALLY...WITH LOW-TO-MID 80S EXPECTED...WARMEST SOUTH. THIS WARMTH WILL GO SOMEWHAT UNREALIZED HOWEVER...AS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT MUCH SUNSHINE...AND SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PWATS RISE TO 2.25 INCHES LATE MONDAY...AND EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED-TO-WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACTUALLY BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE FRONT THEN GETS PUSHED BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ONE LAST TIME AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WITH DRY/COOL ADVECTION INCREASING BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY DURING TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE A BREAK IS EXPECTED LATE. ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY...AN HIGH TEMPS MAY BE REACHED EARLIER THAN TYPICAL AHEAD OF THE CAA...WITH MID 80S AGAIN EXPECTED BEFORE COOLING LATE IN THE AFTN. MINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY WARM...LIKELY AROUND 70...BEFORE DROPPING TO THE MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE STEADY ECMWF IN ITS EVOLUTION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK REGARDING A STALLED COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EAST...COOL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST...AND THESE TWO FEATURES PUSH TUESDAYS COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL...AND IT APPEARS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG IT...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE JUST DISTANT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AREA DRY (FOR A CHANGE). WILL CONTINUE WITH SCHC POP ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONTINUE THE INHERITED TREND OF RAM PING DOWNWARD THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...AS A PERIOD OF FALL-LIKE WEATHER ENVELOPS THE CAROLINAS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 18Z...UNUSUALLY COOL WEDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MYRTLES MAY STAY IFR FOR MOST OF THE TIME...BUT COULD LIFT BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST...GUSTING OCCASIONALLY TO 20 KTS. BECOMING IFR EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE FLO MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND OVERRUNNING TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE AND LIFR VISIBILITIES. MONDAY...A SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW. CEILINGS MAY STAY BELOW IFR FOR QUITE SOME TIME AFTER SUNRISE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS AND TEMPO MVFR THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1045 AM SUNDAY...NE SURGE WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT TODAY WILL BUMP SEAS TO 3 FEET MOSTLY TIED TO WIND WAVE. RAIN MAY STILL REDUCE VSBY OFFSHORE TO 1NM OR LESS AND IN MIST OCCASIONALLY. ISOLATED TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. NE WINDS WILL ABATE TO 10-15 KT OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE WEEK...CAUSING WINDS TO EXPERIENCE NEARLY EVERY COMPASS DIRECTION DURING THE PERIOD. INITIALLY...FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS WITH LIGHT NE WINDS COMMON...BUT THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT THROUGH MONDAY TO BECOME SE AND THEN W/SW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS FRONT WILL THEN RETURN AS A REINFORCED COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO TURN TO THE NW AND EVENTUALLY NE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION...INCREASING ONLY VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THESE LIGHT AND HIGHLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS LOW AMPLITUDE MOST OF THE PERIOD...REMAINING 1-3 FT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LATE TUESDAY HOWEVER...SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WILL ARRIVE IN THE COASTAL WATERS...AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD...BECOMING 3-5 FT TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF POOR MARINE CONDITIONS MEETING SCA THRESHOLDS BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS AN EXTENDED NE SURGE DEVELOPS WITHIN A PINCHED GRADIENT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND INCREASING AMPLITUDE LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD COMBINE. NE WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RISE TO 15-20 KTS LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN PERSIST ON THURSDAY...DRIVING A WIND WAVE OF ABOUT 6FT/5SEC INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE WIND WAVES WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH A 3FT/13SEC SE SWELL TO PRODUCE 4-6 FT WAVES THROUGH MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...CREATING THE EXPECTED LONG-DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DL

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