Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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586 FXUS62 KILM 271405 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1005 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper disturbance will bring a few showers later today, followed by drier and slightly cooler air through mid week. Summer warmth and humidity will return late week and into the weekend with a few thunderstorms in the mix. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 10 AM Tuesday...A very weak surface pressure pattern resides over the area this morning with a fairly potent vort max expected to move through the area this afternoon into early evening. There is limited moisture with which to work and surface convergence is lacking attm so we are not expecting much in the way of coverage of showers and storms. Overall, going forecast was in good shape but did make a few tweaks to reflect a relative lack of clouds presently. Temperature forecast with middle to upper 80s today and lower to middle 60s tonight still looks good as do 20 pops and partly cloudy skies later this afternoon into tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Tuesday...Unseasonably dry and cool conditions will draw few complaints as the muggy feel remains absent from the sensible weather regime, as continental high pressure born from the upper US plains sinks SE into the Carolina skies. This short lived visit however will give way to in the inevitable return of summer as the surface high center slips offshore by Wednesday night. As a result, Thursday maximums will reach near normal values for late June, with dewpoints climbing back well into the 60s after the brief dry dip into the 50s Wednesday. The moisture profiles suggest diurnal cumulus is likely each day, but very dry air above 8000 feet will be unsupportive of any mentionable precipitation chances. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...Long term period will be marked by the return of weather more typical of late June as Bermuda high pressure ridges back into the area. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s for the remainder of the period. Lows will increase into the lower 70s for remainder of the period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening, during the rest of the period. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 010...VFR this TAF cycle as clouds remain at 5 KFT or higher. A disturbance aloft will bring isolated -SHRA between 19Z and 00Z later today, but TSTMS will be few to none as moisture is limited. Overnight SKC-SCT100 with N-NE winds 5 KT or less. With falling dewpoints, mist and fog not expected to cause VSBY restrictions. Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions possible in thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 10 AM Tuesday...Expect light N winds to become E to SE this afternoon, then south tonight before becoming northerly again as a surface trough moves off the coast. Speeds look to remain 10 KT or less through tonight though 15 kt is possible closer to the coast this afternoon due to the sea breeze. seas of 2 feet or less are expected. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Tuesday...Veering 10-15 KT winds start NE then E then SE late Wednesday as the center of high pressure over land slips offshore. With dry air aloft showers or TSTMS are not expected. By daybreak Thursday the high center will migrate to a position between the Outer Banks and Bermuda. This will prompt an E-SE flow Thursday and thursday night, with seas 2-3 feet and winds 15 KT or less. A few outer water showers are possible late Thursday but not of hazardous consequence. Seas SE in direction with mixed periods of 9 and 6 seconds. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...S to SW WINDS by Friday and prevailing through Saturday, speeds could top out around 15 kt Saturday. Seas around 2 feet are expected most of the period with a few 3 footers possible Saturday as winds increase slightly.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...8 NEAR TERM...31 SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...RAN AVIATION...8

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