Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 250533 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 133 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFFSHORE...BRINGING INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS AND TYPICAL WARMTH FOR LATE MAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE MID TO LATE WEEK...AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...DAYTIME CU HAS FADED WITH THE SETTING SUN. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS DOWNWARDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: A POSTCARD-LIKE MEMORIAL SUNDAY WILL SETTLE INTO FAIR AND MILD EVENING AS SKIES TREND TOWARD CLEARING. A DWINDLING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION INTO DIURNAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL QUICKER OVER THE INTERIOR IN CONTRAST TO THE COAST...AND MINIMUMS BY DAYBREAK WILL SHOW A SIMILAR PICTURE WITH LOWER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 CLOSER TO THE SEA DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE ONSHORE PUSH OF LOW-LEVEL MARITIME AIR COUPLED WITH CLEARING SKIES MAY LEAD TO POCKETS AND PATCHES OF FOG AND MIST...FAVORED INLAND WHERE MORE TRANQUIL WINDS RESIDE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND STRONG RIDGING REMAIN OVERHEAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING FOR A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS TO PREVAIL. STRONG RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT ANY DECENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ILLUSTRATED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THAT SAID...WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS ON MONDAY WITH FEW/SCT DIURNAL CU WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON TUESDAY AS RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES. IF RIDGE WEAKENS SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED BY LATEST GUIDANCE...WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY CONSISTENT IN THE MID 60S RANGE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH SUBTLE TROUGHING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GFS REMAINS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION IN BRINGING VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES/SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE AREA THAT ALLOW AT LEAST SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE DRIER OF THE TWO. TO STRIKE THE BALANCE I CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY CONFINED TO INLAND AREAS. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REMAINS STABLE WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND FROM NEAR CLIMATOLOGY TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC THIS TAF VALID PERIOD...THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENT TYPE FORECAST. E-SE WINDS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KFLO/KLBT AND KILM WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. AFTER SUNRISE WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BECOMING OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING. THE PERSISTENT SE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A BIT MORE CLOUDS AT A SLIGHTLY LOWER LEVEL EXPECTED AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CONCERNING FOG POTENTIAL IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALL SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR FOG ESPECIALLY AT KFLO/KLBT AND KILM WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. BUT THERE IS A LAYER OF MOISTURE NEAR 4K THAT COULD REDUCE RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL AS 10-15 KT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS THAT COULD KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED. WILL LEAVE TEMPO MVFR IN TAFS ATTM BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PATCHY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS TUE THROUGH FRI.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH 3 FT SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NC WHOSE AXIS WILL REMAIN POSITIONED NORTH OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW ESE-SE WINDS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS AROUND 3 FEET INSHORE AND 4 FEET CLOSER TO THE FRYING PAN SHOALS OUTER WATERS. SEAS A COMBINATION OF SHORT-PERIOD SE CHOP AND ESE WAVES EVERY 6 SECONDS. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SETTLE TO 10-15 KT AFTER THE SEA BREEZE WEAKENS BY MID- EVENING. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT WATERS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT EAST- SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AS TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT LINGERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. WITH A MIXTURE OF WIND DRIVEN WAVES AND A DECENT GROUND SWELL...EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AROUND 3 TO 4 FT. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE SYNOPTIC FEATURE DRIVING THE WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR LATE WEEK. EXPECT A SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME ACCELERATION IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS NEAR SHORE VIA THE SEABREEZE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WITH THE FOUR FOOTERS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE OUTER WATERS AND ONLY ON OCCASION.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SGL NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...SGL LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MRR/RJD

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