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000
FXUS62 KILM 161918
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
318 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS WEEK AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID TO
LATE IN THE WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AFTER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CU FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT THE FAR WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY NEAR TERM
FORECAST.

BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE
CHANGE...BRINGING A STEADY SWLY FLOW TO THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RESULTING MODEST WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME WILL BRING
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BACK UP AROUND CLIMO...WITH UPPER 60S MOST
LOCATIONS AND LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE POTENTIALLY WET WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.  COMBINING THAT WITH
LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND THE SEA BREEZE MONDAY AND AN APPROACHING
FRONT TUESDAY ALONG WITH SUPPORTIVE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SHOULD
YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TUESDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES EACH DAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S
TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70 EACH NIGHT.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEAKLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL KEEP
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS MORE OR LESS PARALLEL TO
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. LATEST GFS HAS GONE BACK TO PUSHING THE
FRONT THROUGH QUICKER...BUT NOT ON BOARD. THIS COULD BE DOWN TO
FEEDBACK CAUSING OVER AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AS THE
GFS SHOWS POTENT SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM THE MOUNTAIN WEST EARLY IN
THE PERIOD THAT THE 00Z ECMWF LACKS. LATE IN THE WEEK RIDGING OVER
CENTRAL US SLOWLY BUILDS WEST...HELPING PUSH THE BOUNDARY AND ITS
MOISTURE OFF THE COAST. THE GFS DEVELOPS CONVECTION OVER THE REGION
NEXT WEEKEND BUT A LOT OF THIS APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN BY FEEDBACK FROM
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. AT THIS POINT WILL FAVOR
DRYER FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS
ABOVE CLIMO.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL...HOWEVER A LARGE BATCH OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED
JUST WEST OF THE CWA. LOOK FOR INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS
EVENING...WITH PERHAPS A MID CLOUD CEILING TOWARD MORNING. SOUTH
SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL BE IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN TERMINALS BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY STAY VFR...WITH
SOME SHORT TERM PERIODS OF MVFR INLAND AFTER 15Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE. VFR ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE WATERS
WILL KEEP UP A STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3
FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...EXPECT S TO SW FLOW INVOF 15 KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH 20 KT IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.  SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT MONDAY MORNING COULD BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT
TUESDAY...WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE AT 20 NM...ESPECIALLY NEAR
FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD BECOMES
VARIABLE WED NIGHT BEFORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TAKES HOLD THU AND
FRI. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK WITH FRONT STALLED CLOSE TO THE WATERS.
SPEEDS SHOULD STAY UNDER 10 KT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 3 TO 5
FT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DROP TO 3 FT THU AND 2 TO 3 FT
FRI.
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&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...XXXI
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...XXXI
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL