Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS62 KILM 221434
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1030 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016
A seasonably cool weekend is on tap followed by a brief warm-up
Monday. A reinforcing shot of dry and cool air Monday night will
set the stage for dry weather and seasonable temperatures for much
of the upcoming week. A low pressure system will approach the
area late next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 1030 AM Saturday...`Tis breezy outside. But that`s what
happens when you`ve got such strong cold air advection and a 35kt
925mb jet passing overhead paired with a mid level shortwave. All of
the above will be weakening as the day wears on favoring a
vespertine decrease in wind speeds. Before that happens however
daytime heating will favor deeper mixing and a continued breezy
afternoon. This paired with highs falling short of 70 and we`ve
quite the making of a fresh Fall day with full sunshine. As
mentioned the wind really drops off this evening but not to calm.
This will preclude a true radation night but the airmass still
chilly enough to support lows in the low 40s away from the ocean.
Coastal communities will average in the mid 40s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...The change in the longwave pattern having
been completed will result in Autumn weather across the FA this
period with temps near normal. The center of sfc high over the
gulf coast states will continue to affect the fa on Sunday but the
difference from Saturday is that the FA will be under neutral
air advection under w to nw winds with few gusts in the teens.
For Monday...WAA ahead of the next cold front will push max temps
well into the 70s, slightly above the norm, under sw to w winds.
The cold front, a dry one, will drop across the area late Monday
afternoon thru the early evening. CAA under N to NE winds to
ensue as Canadian high pressure drops toward the area from the
upper Midwest. Mainly clear skies thruout this period except
possible sct/bkn low or mid level clouds associated with the
cold front. As for overall temps, stayed close to a blend of the
avbl model Mos Guidance.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...In wake of a dry frontal passage Monday
night, continentally dry air will be refreshed into the region
Tuesday, transitioning to a nearly locked high pressure wedge
configuration of longevity Wednesday into next weekend. The
implications regarding sensible weather begins with notably cooler
minimum temperatures inland versus the coast in NE flow, with
spits of -RA favored near the coast beginning Thursday and
extending into next Saturday. Maximum temperatures will run near
normal this period, but minimums may settle above average over the
eastern zones as a maritime influence appears likely.
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 12Z...VFR likely through the TAF valid period. A cold front
will move farther offshore this morning. Gusty northwest winds this
morning 18-22 kt will ease late in the day. Tonight clear skies with
W-WNW wind 5 knots or less.
-- Changed Discussion --NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 AM Saturday...No changes
to the forecast or the advisories. Decreasing low level jetting and
a relaxation of the surface gradient should allow Advisory to be
dropped this evening.
As of 630 AM Saturday...SCA conditions to prevail thru this aftn
for the ILM SC waters, and to early this evening for the ILM NC
The tightened sfc pg combined with excellent CAA will result in NW
winds at 15 to 25 kt with a few higher gusts this morning. The
gradient will slacken tonight and the CAA will come to an end.
Looking at winds subsiding into the 10 to 20 kt range.
Significant seas will be dominated by locally produced, low
period wind driven waves. An underlying but slowly decaying, ese
to se, 3 foot, swell at 8 to 10 second periods will continue to
affect the local waters this period. Normally, it would be pancake
conditions looking from the beach. But, this beaten down swell
still should make it to the beaches, albeit quite smaller.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...The sfc pressure pattern and modest
gradient will yield w to nw winds at 10 to 15 kt with few higher
gusts, thru Sunday Night. This a result of the high`s center
being positioned over the Gulf Coast States. By Monday, looking at
the approach of a cold front with winds temporarily going sw to w.
The sfc pg will remain somewhat modest yielding 10 to occasionally
15 kt speeds. The cfp slated to be a dry one, will occur from late
Monday afternoon thru early evening. The sfc pressure pattern and
tightened gradient after the cfp will yield n to ne winds at 15 to
20 kt with hier gusts.
Significant seas will be on a subsiding trend Sunday through
Monday...from 3 to 5 ft dropping to 2 to 3 ft. In addition, the
underlying ESE ground swell will have decayed to around 1 foot.
Look for the NE wind driven waves to gain prominence Monday night.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...Tuesday begins turbulent on the waters as a
moderate to heavy chop is instigated by frisky NE winds in wake of
a dry cold front. A small craft advisory or an exercise caution
statement will be needed and likely already in effect by daybreak
Tuesday. A stubborn high pressure wedge will maintain a relatively
tight packing of the pressure gradient Wednesday and Thursday and
this may be a prolonged series of caution headlines and not ideal
boating conditions as fresh NE winds maintain moderate windspeeds.
No TSTMS or restrictions to visibility expected this period.
-- End Changed Discussion --
As of 615 AM Saturday...Looks like the next chance for the Lower
Cape Fear River to spill out of it`s banks will occur between the
hours of 130 pm and 530 pm. At this point, it could breach the
Advisory flood thresholds of 5.5 ft MLLW as forecast and observed
at the downtown Wilmington lower Cape Fear river gage. The
following are high tides for the gage on the Lower Cape Fear
High tide 3:56 PM on Sat.
High tide 4:22 AM on Sun.
High tide 4:53 PM on Sun.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ254-
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250-