Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 211348 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 948 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND STALL NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 945 AM MONDAY...A BAND OF CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM BALD HEAD ISLAND NORTHWESTWARD JUST WEST OF THE CAPE FEAR RIVER LATE THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY FIRST DEVELOPED OVER LUMBERTON A COUPLE HOURS AGO AND DROPPED A RADAR-ESTIMATED 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN NEAR THE CITY. SLOW MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION TODAY COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2.2 INCHES MEANS FURTHER HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 83-85 AWAY FROM THE BEACHES WILL GENERATE 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH NO CAPPING. LOOK FOR GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS TODAY WITH SOME SPOTS PROBABLY PICKING UP 3-4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH AREAL AVERAGES IN THE 0.3 TO 0.6 INCH RANGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS... SHOWERS WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAVE WEAKENED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. FOR THE TIME BEING...THE HEAVIER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAD SHIFTED OFF THE COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH ITS LINGERING EFFECTS PERSISTING INTO TUE. AT THE SURFACE...AN INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AS RESIDUAL WEDGING HANGS ON ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THUS...WE WILL HAVE THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 2 AND 2.25 INCHES THIS PERIOD WHILE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT. THIS SCENARIO NOT ONLY POINTS TO NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SLOW MOVING CONVECTION. THUS...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL...BUT LOCALLY MORE THAN 2 INCHES MAY OCCUR. OFTEN TIMES IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE FAVORING THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF A LBT TO MAO LINE. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD HELP TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN AND WE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY 90 DEGREE READINGS TODAY...UNUSUAL FOR LATE JULY. WE ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 80S. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL LIKELY LINGER OR DROP INTO THE 70S WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST. SEASONABLE DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS TONIGHT FROM DROPPING BELOW THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH MID WEEK...PUSHING A LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH BACK TOWARDS LOCAL FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND MID TO UPPER LOW TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH PCP WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES. OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUES INTO WED. UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE MAY EXTEND FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD ON WED TO KEEP STRONGER CONVECTION AT BAY BUT WITH SUCH A MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS PRESENT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO FLARE UP THROUGH WED. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED TUES INTO WED REMAINING A FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION ALONG WITH OTHER LOCALIZED SHWR ACTIVITY ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND ANY OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER THROUGH WED AND INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. AS HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE ON THE RISE CLOSE TO CLIMO ON TUES AND ABOVE BY WED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE CLIMO IN MOISTURE RICH AIR WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CAROLINAS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. AN INCREASING DEEP SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN A FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND AROUND BERMUDA HIGH ON THURS. THEN THE FRONT WILL BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AS IT REACHES FURTHER EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. STILL DEBATABLE AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT BEFORE STALLING OUT AS DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH REMAINS PROMINENT FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT MAINLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THURS AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTMS ON FRI AS GFS SHOWING BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT AFFECTING THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA LATER ON FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE W-NW BRIEFLY BEHIND FRONT BRINGING IN A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH PCP WATER VALUES DROPPING DOWN CLOSER TO 1.5 INCHES LATER ON SATURDAY BUT THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS AROUND BROAD TROUGH STILL EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE UP IN THE 90S AHEAD OF FRONT AND MAY DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEHIND FRONT ON SATURDAY BUT WILL WARM AGAIN COME THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 12Z...VERY JUICY AIRMASS WILL A SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATION MOVING THROUGH IT TODAY. BOTTOM LINE...CONVECTION WILL FIRE EARLY AND OFTEN TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE TOO HEAVY DUE TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. THINGS MAY GET UNSTABLE ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO KICK OFF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IN THE ACTIVITY WILL BE PREDOMINATELY MVFR...WITH BRIEF IFR PERIODS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BUT THE WEAK GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS UNDER 10 KTS FOR THE MOST PART. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS PERSISTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN STORMS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 945 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. I HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS NEARSHORE BY ABOUT 5 KNOTS BASED ON LATEST PIER AND COASTAL MESONET REPORTS OF SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-12 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. THE SEA STATE IS DOMINATED BY A SOUTHEAST SWELL WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE AROUND 3 FEET THROUGH THE DAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS... AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SHARPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO OUR EAST IS NOT EXPECTED TO ASSERT A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD PUSH UNTIL TUE OR WED. THEREFORE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALSO...A SEABREEZE WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP TODAY AS TEMPS ACROSS THE LAND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE SEA SURFACE TEMPS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE DIRECTION WILL BE MAINLY SE TO ESE. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED OF WIND AND SWELL...BUT TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 3 FT. A 8 TO 9 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL WILL PERSIST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN NUMBER THIS MORNING AND THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST ON SHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP SEAS AROUND 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH TUES. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH WED AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN PIEDMONT TROUGH AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS WHICH WILL IN RETURN PUSH SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT BY WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 TO 20 KTS AS THEY VEER SLIGHTLY TO S-SW THURS THROUGH FRI IN TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LEVELING OFF JUST NEAR SCA THRESHOLDS THURS AFTN THROUGH FRI. COLD FRONT MAY NOT REACH THE WATERS AS IT SLOWS DOWN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. STIFF S-SW WINDS WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 4 TO 5 FT AND POSSIBLE NEAR 6 FT BY LATE THURS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...43

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