Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 171442 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1042 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1040 AM THURSDAY...A COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL SLOWLY LOSE ITS GRIP AS THE AIRMASS IS MODIFIED BY FILTERED SUNSHINE. LOW- LEVEL TRAJECTORIES SHOULD KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEASTERN NC FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER THIS MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY ONSHORE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF BROKEN CU. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REACH THE MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP UP INTO THE MID 40S OVERNIGHT...HELPING KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 5 OR SO DEGREES ABOVE LOWS LAST NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB...THICKENING CIRRUS WILL LEAD TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 420 AM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED IN. MODELS WERE STILL DIVERGING AS TO THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW BUT OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING LIFT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TO PRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS AND PCP. THE GREATEST QPF MAY END UP BEING JUST OFF SHORE WHERE TROUGH EXTENDS UP THROUGH. STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF PCP WILL COME LATE FRI INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT CLOUDS AND PCP MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS THIS LOW MOVES UP THE COAST. GFS LOOKS TO THE BE THE FASTEST SOLUTION BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER INLAND ALSO. WILL INCREASE PCP CHANCES FRI AFTN INTO SATURDAY SHOWING A GREATER CHC INLAND TO ACCOUNT FOR CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS SHOULD HOLD INT THE 60S ON FRIDAY AND MAY END UP BEING LOWER THAN FORECAST IF CLOUDS AND PCP OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLIER. DROPPED THE HIGHS FOR SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PCP. ALTHOUGH IF PCP ENDS AND SKIES CLEAR...TEMPS COULD JUMP INTO THE 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO 50. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 420 AM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. EXPECT DRYING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH COASTAL AREAS THE LAST PLACE TO CLEAR AS LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCP MAY LINGER DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW MOVES AWAY. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM BUT SHOULD SEE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK END BRINGING DRIER AIR IN...ESPECIALLY SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GFS BRINGS PCP WATER VALUES DOWN LESS THAN A HALF INCH UNTIL LATE TUES WHEN NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE W-NW. THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THIS FRONT EAST THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TUES EVENING. NOT MUCH IN TERMS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO PRODUCE ANYTHING BUT SHOWERS. AS SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND IT. OVERALL WARMING TREND EARLY TO MID WEEK. MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP THE EAST COAST WED AND THURS WITH HEIGHT RISES LEADING TO SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 12Z...11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE MARINE SC REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE ATTM AS WINDS REMAIN NE THROUGH 3-4K. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NE 10-20 KTS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. BUT AS WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BECOME MORE E AND SE TODAY...THIS WILL ALLOW THE SC TO INITIALLY ADVECT INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS...THEN DEVELOPING AT THE INLAND TERMINALS LATER IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT TEMPO VFR CIGS WILL OCCUR. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR AS MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS INCREASE. GFS MOS GUIDANCE MOST AGGRESSIVE...AND IS INDICATING IFR STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND 09Z...WITH NAM MOS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A LOWER CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. SINCE BOTH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AROUND 1K...WILL INDICATE SCT IFR LEVEL STRATUS ATTM. ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE OR WELL S OF THE TERMINALS THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT AT LEAST PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL AS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY. VFR ON MONDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1040 AM THURSDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST GENERALLY 15-20 KT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AS THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FETCH WILL MAINTAIN SEAS AS HIGH AS 6-7 FEET AWAY FROM SHORE. SEAS ON THE SHELTERED WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO LITTLE RIVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN A 2-3 FT RANGE. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...NECESSITATING THE CONTINUATION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO FRIDAY. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 420 AM THURSDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. OVERALL EXPECT PERSISTENT NE FLOW GREATEST OFF SHORE AND DECREASING CLOSER TO THE COAST TO NEAR 15 KTS BUT LATEST WNA AND MODEL RUNS SHOW WINDS HOLDING UP AS TIGHTENED GRADIENT HOLDS FRI INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. LOCAL WATERS MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND IN NORTHERLY WINDS. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 420 AM THURSDAY...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP THE WINDS AND SEAS UP ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS MOST LIKELY. WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG AND FAST THE LOW MOVES OFF FURTHER TO THE E-NE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. WINDS MAY REACH UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS MAY KICK SEAS UP TO 8 TO 10 FT IN LOCAL WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY MON AFTN.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ NEAR TERM...CRM SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MRR

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