Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 030228 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1028 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A COLD UPPER LOW WILL DIP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRYING AND WARMING WILL FOLLOW INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...SHOWERS WERE STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVE. THERE WERE STILL A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN BLADEN COUNTY. WE EXPECT THE ONGOING ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN LATE THIS EVE. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THEN INTO GEORGIA. WE EXPECT THIS CONVECTION WILL NOT DISSIPATE EVEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AS A GULF OF MEXICO TAP COMBINES WITH FRONTAL LIFT AND A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A STRONG UPSTREAM TROUGH. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW AND W. THUS...HIGH POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THE ARW AND HRRR HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOLDING TOGETHER AS THEY ROLL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 07-08Z AND 13-14Z. THE MAIN RISK WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...VERY GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE INTO THE SHORT TERM AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN CONUS. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SERIES OF FACTORS COME IN TO PLAY...INCLUDING FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED MORE OR LESS ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL EITHER STALL OR SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE THEREAFTER. BOTH GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THEN. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL DRYING AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...SO EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...EASTERN EDGE OF OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BE OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. THE 5H LOW/TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL LIKELY LEADING TO AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE WITH NORTHERN LOCATIONS THE MOST FAVORED. SIMILAR STORY...MINUS THE COLD FRONT...FRI AND POSSIBLY SAT. MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVERHEAD GENERATING INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT AVAILABLE MOISTURE...KEEPING COVERAGE LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST. TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO. BLOCK STARTS BREAKING DOWN/SHIFTING EAST ON SAT WITH 5H RIDGE MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR SUN AND MON. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WHICH PREVENTS MEANINGFUL MOISTURE RETURN AND SETS UP DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN ADDITION TO SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES SAT NEAR CLIMO BUT THEN ABOVE CLIMO SUN AND MON. WEAKENING OF THE 5H RIDGE AND CONTINUED EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS MON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN AS THE PERIOD ENDS. DO NOT THINK PRECIP WILL FALL MON DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ON THE CUSP OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT AND WELL INTO TUESDAY...WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND LOWER CIGS POTENTIALLY CREATING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KT TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 20 KT...AND POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGHER IN ANY TSRA. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL THE WATERS. SW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4 TO 5 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASING. THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE WELL MIXED OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NUMEROUS LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WATERS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TO THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL STAY SW THROUGH TUESDAY AND ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADVISORIES TO BE POSTED...CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT FURTHER EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS. IT IS LIKELY THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE WATERS ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY ALSO WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING LATE THU AND THU NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. PINCHED GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION AS HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WILL PUSH WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO 20 KT LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. GRADIENT STARTS TO SLOWLY RELAX FRI WITH WINDS DROPPING FROM 15 TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS 10 TO 15 KT INTO SAT BEFORE DROPPING CLOSER TO 10 KT LATE SAT AFTERNOON. SEAS PEAK THU NIGHT...RUNNING 3 TO 5 FT DUE TO THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. SEAS START TO SUBSIDE ON FRI...DROPPING TO 2 TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH 2 FT OR LESS EXPECTED BY SAT.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...III AVIATION...SGL

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