-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
109
FXUS62 KILM 040621
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
221 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this weekend
as due to several upper level disturbances and localized low
pressure. High pressure will build overhead by Tuesday with
well above normal temperatures likely during the middle and late
portions of next week. Rain chances increase towards the end of
next week due to an approaching frontal system.

&&

.UPDATE...
No changes to the forecast with the mid evening update. Next
several hours the forecast is fog oriented and with inherited
good coverage...it`s probably a fool`s gold to fine tune but
will take a second look later.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Persistent low level south-southeasterly flow will lead to another
night of saturation near ground level. Best chance for fog,
potentially dense, will be across the Cape Fear region and possibly
parts of coastal northeast SC. Confidence in fog development
decreases further inland as edge of mid/high level cloud deck will
be across western parts of the CWA. May be more low stratus inland
vs the expected fog closer to the coast. Regardless, any fog/stratus
will clear after sunrise.

Temps will be only slightly lower on Saturday, with highs in the low
80s. Main forecast problem in the near term is rain chances
beginning midday Saturday and continuing through the day. There is
going to be a rather sharp moisture gradient in the vicinity of I-95
during the day Saturday, with 1.6" PWAT to the west and near an inch
at the coast. This is mainly due to rather dry mid levels around
offshore ridge, with 20% RH at 700mb at the coast tomorrow
afternoon. Current thinking is scattered storms (40-50% chance)
possible across western parts of the CWA beginning midday, with
upper level impulses moving across from the SW around ridge offshore
and trough to the NNW. How far inland that intrusion of mid level
dry air gets will determine edge of best rain chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Pulses of shortwave energy overhead paired with localized lower
pressure leads to shower/storm chances through the short term
period. Sat night the coast could remain dry before moisture starts
to recover late. The axis of better moisture will push into the area
along with the shortwave Sun with continued chances for convection,
particularly during the afternoon and along the sea breeze. The
shortwave will move offshore Sun night with activity expected to
wind down overnight. Another shortwave approaches Mon with greater
precip chances with the addition of instability. Highs in the low to
mid 80s with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rain chances continue through Tues where one last push of energy
moves through aloft before ridging builds in for midweek with quiet
weather. Under this ridge, highs will increase into the 90s with
humid conditions. No heat advisory concerns with the current
forecast. High temp records for Wilmington NC and Florence SC are a
couple degrees above what is in the forecast for Wed and Thurs, so
this heat will be something to keep an eye on. Rain chances return
late Thurs through the end of the period with an approaching frontal
system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Looking at VFR/MVFR conditions thru 08Z, then dropping to
IFR/LIFR at the coastal terminals with mid and upper level
clouds possibly limiting the inland terminals to just IFR at its
worst. Between 08z and 12z, BR/FG lowering vsbys and sub 500 ft
OVC or VVs will dominate. After 13z, SSE-S 5 to 10 kt winds
pick up and the days heating commences, which should dissipate
any leftover flight restrictions rather quickly. Some guidance
indicates possible convection across the inland terminals this
aftn and will indicate with VCTS, this followed by prob30 for
shra thru this evening for the same inland terminals.

Extended Outlook...Scattered convection will bring periodic
visibility and ceiling restrictions Sun into Mon. Otherwise,
looking at VFR dominating outside the pcpn and becoming the
mainstay Tue into Wed.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...Benign marine conditions continue through
Saturday courtesy of offshore high pressure. Seas linger in the 1-2
ft range tonight and tomorrow, combination of 1-2 ft SE wind wave
and 1 ft E swell. South-southeast winds persist, predominantly less
than 10 kts outside of localized sea breeze enhancement Saturday
afternoon. May see some patchy fog close to the Cape Fear coastline
early Saturday morning, but confidence is low on how low
visibilities may get and how far offshore any fog may impact.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...Flow around the Bermuda high will
lead to SE to SW flow through the period. Sub-SCA conditions with
wind speeds 10-15 kts and seas 2-3 ft increasing to 3-4 ft Wed with
an increasing southerly wind wave and some long period swells from
the E/NE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SHK
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...VAO/LEW