Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 282317 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 717 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE STALLING LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THIS WEEKEND. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER TO THE CAROLINAS THROUGHOUT THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND CONTINUING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR DAILY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND...AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND INCREASINGLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH WEAKENING AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND OUR EAST. WITH RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE FEEL THAT MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM. MOST PLACES WILL GET DOWN INTO THE MID 60S EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE UPPER 60S WILL TEND TO BE MORE THE RULE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THIS PERIOD. MODELS SIMILAR WITH INCREASING 500MB HEIGHTS TO THE MID 590S ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP AND TEMPORARILY STALL ACROSS CENTRAL NC FRIDAY...THEN MORE OR LESS DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND. MODELS THEN HAVE A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTEND SW FROM A 1025+ HIGH CENTERED OFF THE NE STATES. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...RESULTING WITH AND KEEPING AN ONSHORE FLOW ESE-SSW IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE FA DURING THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP/AID IN KEEPING THE DAILY HIGHS/MAXES FROM PUSHING TOO FAR INTO THE 90S. WITH SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER RIDGING...AND SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA...POPS WILL NEARLY BE NON-EXISTENT. EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE WHERE JUST A 20 POP OR LESS WILL EXIST DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY STARTING ON SATURDAY. FOR FRI/SAT MAXES...HAVE TWEAKED LOWER BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...MAINLY DUE TO PROGGED ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AS FOR MINS...VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND SEE NO REASON TO DETOUR FROM THEIR NUMBERS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND...TO THE LOW TO MID 70S AS YOU WORK YOUR WAY EASTWARD TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL WEAKEN AND FLATTEN...EXPANDING WEST AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL LEAVE A RELATIVELY FLAT/PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SUN AND MON DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUMP PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL EXCEED 2 INCHES MON AND HANGING AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DRY MID LEVELS AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE MAY LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION ON SUN BUT STARTING MON COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE WITH SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMING MAIN FEATURES. LATE IN THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH BUT TIMING REMAINS A QUESTION. ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES PLANNED TO INHERITED GRIDS/FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO AREAS OF FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE...THE RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL BE GRADUAL. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS. THIS WITH ANY ISOLATED AREAS OF AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...IF BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WERE TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...WHICH SOME MODELS SUGGEST...IT COULD DEFLECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. IF FOG DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...EXPECT MVFR AS A RESULT. ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AOB 10 KTS...AND A FEW CU POSSIBLE AROUND 5-6 KFT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS SAT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300PM THURSDAY...WAVE PERIODS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE SWELL ENERGY FROM CRISTOBAL DOES THE SAME. EVEN SO...SEAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER PENDER/NEW HANOVER ZONES WHERE THE SWELL ENERGY IS ACTING TO RETARD THE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE GRADIENT IN WAVE HEIGHT DESPITE THE OFFSHORE FLOW. IN THESE AREAS SEAS MAY HAVE TROUBLE FALLING BELOW 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. FARTHER SOUTH THERE IS WAVE HEIGHT SHADOWING...MOST PRONOUNCED OFF OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY. SOUTHERNMOST ZONES TO FALL TO JUST 2 FT. WIND-WISE...A GENERAL SW AT 10 KNOTS EVERYWHERE. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SFC BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE HATTERAS DURING FRIDAY...WILL BASICALLY DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND. SFC RIDGING FROM THE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE NE STATES WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE FEATURE TO AFFECT THE AREA WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD. THE POSITIONING OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE FLOW...ESE THRU S...ACROSS THE AREA WATERS DURING THIS 2 DAY PERIOD. THE SFC PG WILL BE IN A RELAXED MODE...RESULTING WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT...WITH 10-15 KT DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE DAILY AFTN/EVENG SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH DAY OF THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT EACH DAY VIA WAVEWATCH3 AND SWAN MODELS...WITH A FEW 4 FOOTERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FROM ANY ROGUE GROUND SWELL LEFTOVER FROM CRISTOBAL. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ELONGATED BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 KT AT NIGHT TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE TROUGH IS AT ITS STRONGEST. PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS FROM AROUND 2 AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO A SOLID 3 FT TUE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...III AVIATION...SGL

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