Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 220955 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 555 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER...IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 555 AM WEDNESDAY...LOCAL RADAR WIND PROFILE CLOCKING 30 TO 40 KT N WIND BARBS 1-2 KFT OFF THE SURFACE RESPECTIVELY...AS A SPOKE OF CYCLONIC ENERGY ROTATES FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW. ADJUSTMENTS BEFORE DAYBREAK INCLUDE TRIMMING MAXIMUMS A DEGREE BASED ON RECENT GFS LAMP GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM N TO S IS STILL ANTICIPATED TODAY. WILL ALSO REDUCE CLOUD COVER A FEW TICKS WITH LITTLE AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED IN THE DRY DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. SUNNY COOL AND BREEZY DAY TO KICK OFF WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT HAS SWEPT OFFSHORE AND HAS ALLOWED STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BARGE INTO THE AREA. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM BREWING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE N OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS LATE TONIGHT. BRISK AND DEEP NW FLOW TO ENVELOP THE REGION WITH DRYING IN MID AND LOWER LEVELS. ENOUGH H8 MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO DIURNAL SFC HEATING TO COOK A FEW CUMULUS AT 5-6 KFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NC INTERIOR...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN SCOPE. MAXIMUMS AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH A SLIGHT WIND-CHILL TO BOOT THIS MORNING. FULL SUNSHINE AND DOWN SLOPE WIND TRAJECTORIES HOWEVER SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT WARM-UP DESPITE THE ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND GENERALLY A 68-72 DEGREE RANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS. WARM ICW WATERS IN NW WIND COULD WARM PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL STRIPS A LITTLE HIGHER. TONIGHT A CHILLY ONE UNDER CLEAR SKY AND DRY AIR...BUT NOT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO THE NW WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT. DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES OF 40-45 DEGREES EXPECTED...WITH WIND CHILLS AT FIRST LIGHT IN THE 30S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STACKED LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD THU MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST...LEAVING DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED FRI AND TROUGHING TO THE EAST ALONG WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST ENSURES DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE REGION PRECIP FREE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. HIGHS BELOW CLIMO THU AS COLD ADVECTION MORE THAN OFFSETS INSOLATION AND WEAK MID LEVEL WARMING. MAY HAVE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT THU NIGHT BUT CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH REMAINS TO THE WEST SO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY CALM. LOWS END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS FRI WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AIR MASS MODIFICATION...AND WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HELPING PUSH HIGHS ABOVE CLIMO. LITTLE CHANGE FROM THU NIGHT TO FRI NIGHT AND LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN END UP BELOW CLIMO. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL MAINTAIN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP MID LEVELS VERY DRY BUT ALSO ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL SHOTS OF COOLER AIR FROM TIME TO TIME...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. EXCEEDINGLY DRY AIR RULES OUT THE CHANCE OF PRECIP AND SEVERELY LIMITS CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUE. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFTS OVER HEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST FOR TUE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIMIC RIDGING ALOFT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING IN ERNEST FOR TUE. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS MID LEVEL PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HELP OFFSET ANY COOL AIR INTRUSIONS WITH HIGHS RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. SAT NIGHT CLEAR SKIES...DEEP DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO. ELEVATED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SUN NIGHT MAY KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO CLIMO. DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH LOWS ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 06Z...WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE N AFT 6Z ACCOMPANIED BY SCT-BKN070. NNW GUSTS TO 24KT AFT 14Z. CLEARING TO VFR AFTER 9Z WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. SCATTERED CU POSSIBLE WITH AFTN HEATING SCT050-060. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING BUT LIKELY STAY 4-7 5 KTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 555 AM WEDNESDAY...CAUTION STATEMENTS RAISED FOR NC WATERS. 20 KT SHOULD BE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW INSHORE WITH A NW WIND...BUT SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BUMPY FARTHER OUT. SEAS PRIMARILY 2-5 FEET AND HIGHEST OUTER WATERS. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY WILL BE TIED WITH WINDS...SO SHORT WAVELENGTHS AND STEEP SEAS WILL BE THE RULE OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ARE EXPECTED ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. WINDS SPEEDS FROM THE NW SHOULD EASE TO 15 HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS THE GUSTY NW SURGE WEARS OFF A LITTLE. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO WEST AS LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. GRADIENT IS PINCHED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SPEEDS STAYING AROUND 15 KT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. GRADIENT RELAXES FRI WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY MIDDAY. WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT BUT DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK COLD SURGE WILL PUSH SPEEDS OVER 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. REMAINS OF COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BRINGING ABOUT A SLIGHT BUMP IN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 15 KT BUT SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION... MARINE...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.