Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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338 FXUS62 KILM 191028 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 628 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS AN APPROACHING FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN STALLS THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 608 AM TUESDAY...A WARM TO HOT DAY IN THE MAKING WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS UNFOLDING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILE NETWORKS SHOW STOUT DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW IN THE LOW- LEVELS WHILE SATELLITE TRENDS POINT TO AMPLE SUNSHINE. MAXIMUMS MAY PAN OUT EQUALLY OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY SINCE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS MAY NOT OBSCURE DIRECT SUN UNTIL PEAK HEATING IN THE WEST FLOW...WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ANTICIPATED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. EVEN COASTAL ZONES ARE PRONE TO HEAT TODAY SINCE THE LOW-LVL FLOW MAY KEEP THE COOLING SEA BREEZE FASTENED CLOSE TO SHORES. TRAVERSING SHORT-WAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL FORCE A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE COAST AND INTERACTION WITH AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE APPEARS UNAVOIDABLE. SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR THE COAST LATER TODAY AND TSTMS MAY BE STRONGEST THERE. CONVECTION MORE LOOSELY SCATTERED FARTHER INLAND IS EXPECTED SINCE CONVERGENCE WILL BE LESS SHARPLY DEFINED IN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AND SHOULD QUICKLY CURTAIL LAND CONVECTION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD MUCH OF THE NIGHT BUT SLIGHT COOLING AND DRYING SHOULD BRING LOWS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY INLAND TO THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN AS A DECAYING FRONT RESIDES TO THE SOUTH UNDER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS WELL. THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL TEAM UP TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. GUIDANCE HAS JOGGED INLAND WITH THE BEST FORCING AND INSTABILITY. THE GRADIENT OF LOWER CHANCE ALONG THE COAST WITH GOOD CHANCE INLAND MATCHES UP WELL WITH GUIDANCE NUMBERS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WEDNESDAY ALBEIT WITH A LITTLE LESS HUMIDITY. COOLER OVERALL THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...500MB PATTERN WILL INITIALLY START OUT WITH A SOMEWHAT SUBTLE AND PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. BEYOND THIS A MORE AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN EVOLVES WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO A FAMILIAR POSITION NEAR BERMUDA. WE ARE MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST BEYOND THE FIRST FEW HOURS FRIDAY AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM A DEPARTING SYSTEM WARRANTS. THE PATTERN ACTUALLY LOOKS TO EVOLVE SIMILAR TO THIS WEEK WHEN THE RIDGING KEPT CONVECTION WELL TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURE TRENDS OF SEASONABLE EARLY GRADUALLY WARMING REMAIN INTACT. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE WE WILL SEE SOME DECENT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH/FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE SOME DECENT CAPE AS WE HEAT WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND. MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PINNED FAIRLY CLOSE TO SHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A GOOD IMPETUS FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION. THERE WILL BE LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM GETTING TOO VIGOROUS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL END OR BE OFF THE COAST BY 00-01Z...WITH A QUITE NIGHT EXPECTED. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR OUT SIDE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 608 AM TUESDAY...SW WINDS 15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE 0-20NM WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. A FEW STRONG TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MARINE WARNINGS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SEAS AROUND 3 FT EXPECTED TODAY IN THE MODERATE SW FLOW OUTSIDE OF TSTMS. SEAS COMPOSED OF E WAVES 2-3 FT AT 9 SECONDS CO-MINGLED WITH A MODERATE SW CHOP. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT RESIDES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHEAST TEN KNOTS OR LESS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG AN OLD BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THUS INCREASING THE WIND FIELDS TO 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 1-2 FEET INITIALLY WILL INCREASE TO 2-4 FEET BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT GIVES WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. A WEAKLY FORCED NORTHERLY FLOW OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KNOTS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE LEAD OF THE WINDS INCREASING FROM 1-2 FEET EARLY TO 3-5 FEET BY SATURDAY PM. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...43

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