Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 051032 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 532 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Light rain will slowly wane through this afternoon as weak low pressure moves away. A stronger system will move back into the region tonight through Tuesday bringing more substantial rainfall. Quiet and seasonable weather will occur mid-week ahead of an arctic front which will cross offshore late Thursday. Very cold temperatures will follow for Friday and into the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 330 AM Monday...The coastal warm front is now straddling the immediate coast of the carolinas. Models indicated this front would do this but with some difficulty on just how far inland it will progress. The low pressure is now across Cape Fear at the moment with the coastal front ahead of it having pushed close to 10 miles onshore, via low 60s readings at ILM. After the low`s passage, the coastal front will get dragged back off the coast and offshore. This evident with latest NW winds behind the low across the ILM SC CWA at the moment. The low will track NE of the ILM NC CWA later this morning, pulling the remaining inland portions of the coastal front back offshore. Overrunning light to moderate rains will come to an end from SW to NE later this morning thru early afternoon. Radar indicates an axis of higher intensity rain this morning extending from Timmonsville northeast across Latta and Evergreen to White Lake. This will end up being the area of hier rainfall totals for this round of pcpn. For late this afternoon thru tonight, wedge of high pressure with CAA at the sfc, will set up across the area. The cutoff upper low over Mexico late this weekend, will get picked up by the upper westerlies and track to the NE, opening up into a potent s/w mid-level trof by late tonight as it and it`s accompanying sfc low reaches the lower Mississippi Valley. The offshore front from earlier will return northward as a warm front...reaching the coast by tue daybreak. Expect overrunning light to moderate rain to once again overspread the FA later this evening and overnight. Todays highs along the immediate coast will likely occur early this morning with 60s. Otherwise, highs inland will occur during the normal diurnal cycle. ie. afternoon. Tonights lows will be a blend of mos guidance.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 415 AM Monday...The potent mid-level s/w trof, over the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and associated sfc low, will lift to the NE reaching the Ohio River Valley by Tue afternoon. The associated sfc low will fill in, with a new low pressure system taking shape off the Southeast NC Coast. Ie. The Miller Type B Scenario. An occluded front will exist between the 2 sfc lows, that will dissipate as the coastal low becomes the dominate low. Meanwhile, wedge of high pressure across the area will remain strong due to the parent center of the sfc high remaining over the NE states well into Tue afternoon. This will result in a continued influx of cool air at the sfc with ILM inland areas remaining on the cool side. Once again, the front offshore will get pulled north as a warm front, and likely straddle along the immediate coast. Will have a nice range of temps depending how far inland the warmer temps push. At this point, it could be a repeat of what occurred on Monday or to a lesser degree since the source of cool air to sustain the wedge will be stronger. The better dynamics aloft with this system as a whole, will aid in the possibility of isolated thunder in the vicinity of the coastal front. Instability either at the sfc or elevated will be enough for possible mention of isolated thunder. Overall, looking at categorical overrunning rains early Tue morning thru early afternoon, ending from SW to NE. QPF will be equal or slightly hier than what occurs during Monday. The heaviest pcpn ends during Tuesday afternoon. A lagging mid- level weak s/w trof could ignite -shra Tues evening and for that left a chance POP. For Wed and Wed night, flow aloft no longer taps the Gulf as WSW flow becomes the mainstay. Weak high pressure builds across the FA. RH Model time heights displays indicate decent drying aloft which will enable skies to become mostly clear for Wed thru Wed night. Temps for Wed will run at or slightly below normal with neutral advection.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 300 AM Monday...Arctic front to cross the Carolinas Thursday, with very cold conditions following in its wake. Guidance has slightly increased its moisture associated with the FROPA, and will carry SCHC POP for northern zones late Thursday as a few showers are possible. Increased column saturation above 600mb suggests increased cloud cover, but very dry air beneath this will prevent much more than a brief shower or sprinkle with the FROPA. All precip will be of the liquid variety however, it will be too warm for any snowflakes this time around. However, it will certainly FEEL like winter beginning Thursday night and persisting through Saturday as temps plummet. 850mb temps have warmed slightly in new guidance as the core of the cold air deflects to our north, but still expect highs only in the 40s Fri/Sat with lows dropping well into the 20s Friday night. Additionally, gusty winds Friday will make apparent temps even colder than that. The Canadian high pressure bringing this cold air will shift offshore quickly late in the wknd allowing temps to recover to seasonable values Sunday.
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&& .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 06Z...Rain showers continuing to move SW to NE across the area, and this persistent light rain will lead to widespread IFR tonight. The rain will remain mostly light, so vsbys are expected to be primarily MVFR, but brief IFR in heavier rain is possible. More likely, the IFR will be experienced in lowering CIGS, possibly falling to LIFR towards dawn and early on Monday. Winds will be highly variable due to a coastal front, with southerly winds developing at ILM/CRE/MYR and N/NE winds continuing inland. Drying will occur during the day Monday with slow improvement to VFR during the aftn as 10kt NW winds clear the cigs and rainfall. This improvement will be short lived however, as a more significant round of rainfall is expected to begin Monday night, with MVFR and IFR returning to the terminals. Extended Outlook...IFR/rain likely Mon night through Tuesday night. MVFR becoming VFR Wednesday and extending into Thursday. Slight chance MVFR/showers Thurs night into early Fri.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM Monday...SCA thru this morning for all waters. The coastal front this morning will straddle along the immediate coast or up to 5 to 10 miles inland. Low pressure moving along this front, across the Cape Fear area attm, will track NE of the ILM CWA later this morning. After the low passage, the coastal front will get pulled back across the coastal and into the offshore waters later this morning and afternoon. The south side of the coastal front is where you will find the stronger SCA, SE to SW winds. Wind speeds will reach 15 to 25 kt. Late today and tonight, when the front has pushed back offshore, winds will become NE to ENE around 10 kt. High pressure wedging from the north tonight will add 5 kt, making it around 15 kt with some hier gusts overnight. Significant seas this morning will have built to 4 to 7 ft in the Cape Fear vicinity, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. Wind driven waves at 3 to 6 seconds will dominate the seas thruout this period. After the lows passage and offshore winds after the coastal front bounces back offshore, seas will subside rather quickly this afternoon into tonight before holding steady in the 2 to 4 ft range. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 415 AM Monday...SCA conditions may again be met across all waters during Tue into Tue night. Front offshore Monday Night, will get pulled back to the north, across the Coastal waters and possibly onshore during the 1st part of Tuesday. Low pressure is expected to develop off the southeast NC Coast Tue afternoon and track northeast away from the local waters by Tue evening. This will pull the front, now a cold front, back off the coast and offshore Tue evening. Weak high pressure ridge in late Tue night and prevail thru Wed night. Peak winds will occur during Tuesday, slowly abating Tue night and continuing this trend thruout Wednesday. Significant seas will also peak during Tue and mainly dominated by short period wind driven waves. Seas will likely quickly subside Tue night thru Wed due to the lack of any long period ground swell progged to affect the local waters. PCPN will be widespread on Tue with mainly light to moderate rains with embedded thunderstorms. A few of these embedded thunderstorms could mix down the progged stronger winds aloft that could yield a SMW or atleast Marine wx statements. Activity becomes isolated Tue night with drier air and no pcpn for Wed. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday...Strong cold front will cross the waters late Thursday producing SCA conditions into Friday. Winds ahead of this front will increase and slowly veer to the west, before shifting to the NW and becoming 20-25 kts, driving seas up to 4-6 ft despite the offshore winds. These winds will remain strong through Friday, falling only slowly to 15-20 kts while becoming more northerly Friday night. Wave heights will fall quickly however as the offshore winds weaken, becoming 2-4 ft late. An SCA will likely be needed for late Thursday and a good portion of Friday.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...JDW

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