Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 260417 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1217 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THIS WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY...OFFERING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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AS OF 1215 AM TUESDAY...JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND WINDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. ALSO ADDED SMOKE TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE BOLIVIA AREA OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY NEAR THE LOCATION OF THE CONTAINED WILDFIRE. KLTX VAD PROFILE INDICATES 40 KNOT SW WINDS AT 1000 FEET AGL. THIS IS MUCH FASTER THAN ANY MODEL IS INDICATING AND ALSO IS VEERED AROUND 30 DEGREES CLOCKWISE FROM THE EXPECTED DIRECTION. ONE POSSIBLE EXPLANATION FOR THIS: WE`RE IN THE HEART OF SPRING BIRD MIGRATION AND THE RADAR MAY BE MEASURING THEIR SPEED RATHER THAN THE AIR THEY`RE FLYING WITHIN. DISCUSSION FROM 910 PM FOLLOWS... THE NC FOREST SERVICE REQUESTED A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR INLAND BRUNSWICK COUNTY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITY IN PROXIMITY TO SMOLDERING FIRES FROM SUPPLY TO BOLIVIA NC...AND THIS COULD IMPACT TRAVEL ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 17 IN THE COUNTY. THE GOOD NEWS IN THAT THE LATEST TRENDS IN KLTX VAD WIND PROFILE DATA SHOWS AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL WINDS...CLOCKING 30 KT AT 1000 FEET IN RECENT SCANS. THIS WILL ONLY AID VENTILATION AND PROMOTE GOOD VISIBILITIES IN GENERAL IF THESE SPEEDS PREVAIL OR INCREASE FURTHER. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TWEAKS TO REMAIN UNIFORM WITH OBSERVATIONS. STEEP TEMPERATURE FALLS THIS EVENING WILL SLOW THE DESCENT INTO THE LATE NIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD SETTLE AT DAYBREAK TO 56-59 ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF NE SC AND SE NC...AND 59-63 CLOSER TO THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WARM AND DRY THROUGH MID-WEEK...ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL COMPLICATE THINGS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE LOCAL WEATHER. ALOFT...500MB FLOW FEATURES A SIGNIFICANT ZONAL COMPONENT WITH TWO DISTINCT UPPER LOWS...ONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE FLOW FLAT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP TOWARDS THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL BECOME ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FLAT FLOW OVERHEAD...AND LIKELY STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS LEAVES WARM AND MOIST FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA TYPE HIGH AS THE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTOR TO THE LOCAL SENSIBLE WEATHER. TEMPS WILL CLIMB EACH DAY...WITH LOW TO MID 80S FORECAST TUESDAY...AND MID 80S WITH SOME UPR 80S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND...ON WEDNESDAY. THE COAST WILL BE COOLER EACH DAY THANKS TO A PRONOUNCED SEA BREEZE. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP INTO THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE...WARMEST AT THE COAST. WHILE THESE WARM TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND AIR MASS TYPE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH RES GUIDANCE DEVELOPS TSTMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WITH MUCAPE FORECAST TO RISE TO ABOVE 2000 J/KG...WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED SCHC POP...WITH DRY AIR ALOFT THE LIMITING FACTOR TO MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF TO A MORE BELIEVABLE SOLUTION OF STALLING THE FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA...AND HAVE BACKED OFF ON INHERITED POP A BIT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. STILL MAINTAIN JUST A SCHC ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES...BUT EVEN THIS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE AND THE ONLY CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MAY END UP BEING THE DIURNALLY FORCED TSTMS DURING PEAK HEATING. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER THURS MORNING...HOLDING NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE US IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF SHORE. MAIN FORCING WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF AREA BUT MOISTURE WILL POOL IN WARM AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH PCP WATER VALUES INCREASING UP TO 1.5 INCHES. THIS SHOULD AID IN LOCALIZED SHWR ACTIVITY MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE. WINDS ALOFT SHOULD STEER ANY CLOUDS AND PCP ASSOCIATED WITH ANY CONVECTION TO THE E-NE THROUGH THURS AFTN. BY THURS NIGHT...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SFC LOW EAST AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH THIS LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH TO PRODUCE INCREASED CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS OVER THE CAROLINAS THURS NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST BY FRI MORNING WITH FRONT/TROUGH MOVING OFF SHORE BY FRI MORNING WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE RIDING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER ON FRI. A DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP THROUGH FRI AND SHOULD BRING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. OVERALL EXPECT BEST CHC OF PCP OVERNIGHT THURS AND DRYING THROUGH EARLY FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRI AND SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER BOUNDARY SOUTH WITH A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE NORTH AND A SLIGHT COOLING AND DRYING THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THIS BOUNDARY MAY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DEEP WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH A MOISTER SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...60S AT NIGHT AND INTO THE 80S MOST PLACES DURING THE DAY. CLOUDS AND A COOLER NE-E FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD CUT TEMPS DOWN A BIT. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES PRESENTS A POTENTIAL FOG THREAT. HOWEVER WINDS AT JUST 1000 FEET AGL ARE NEAR 20 KT. THESE WINDS APPEAR TO BE ABLE TO TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE THUS EXPECT ENOUGH WIND/MIXING TO OCCUR TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION AS TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS CONTINUE TO NARROW TO 1-5 DEGREES THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT THAT MAY BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS. AFTER SUNRISE SW WINDS 5-10 KT EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS...WITH SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY MID-MORNING. WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL BE SW AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WHERE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE S AND INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS BY AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 910 PM MONDAY...WINDS OFFSHORE S-SSW 10 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE. SEA SPECTRUM IS COMPRISED OF ENE WAVES 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND LIGHT S-SSW CHOP. NO TSTMS OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFFSHORE IN A BERMUDA-HIGH TYPE FASHION THROUGH MID-WEEK. A COLD FRONT TRYING TO DROP SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY WILL STALL NORTH OF THE WATERS...BUT WILL CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO BECOME SUBTLY MORE PINCHED WEDNESDAY THAN ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL CREATE SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...OF 10-15 KTS TUESDAY...AND THEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW 4 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THANKS TO A 4- 5 SEC SW WAVE AND A 9-10 SEC SE SWELL. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF SHORE ON THURSDAY AND LOOKS LIKE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF WATERS THROUGH THE AFTN. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS FROM POINTS NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS A BIT. WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE WEST BY FRI MORNING BUT WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH PUSHING ANOTHER BOUNDARY SOUTH. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO THE NE THEN E AND EVENTUALLY SE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO ADVISORIES OR EVEN CAUTIONARY HEADLINES APPEAR TO MATERIALIZE. THOUGH THIS WILL CERTAINLY CONFUSE AND STEEPEN SEAS THERE WILL NOT REALLY BE ANY SURGE IN WIND SPEED. SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 FT AND ACTUALLY LESS THAN 3 FT MOST WATERS BUT A THERE WILL BE A SPIKE IN WINDS AND SEAS THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ109. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MRR

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