-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 141418
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1018 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON SHIFTING OFF SHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER OFF SHORE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GIVING WAY TO A WARMING TREND AND
GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY THE WEEKEND.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...UNSEASONABLY COLD MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE
40S MOST PLACES. ILM CAME IN WITH 46, LBT WAS 39 AND NORTH MYRTLE
BEACH TIED THE OLD RECORD OF 45 SET IN 1952.

COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING AROUND BECOMING ON
SHORE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY BY TONIGHT. THEREFORE
THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. READINGS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...WELL
BELOW THE NORMAL WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE LOW 80S. SUNSHINE WILL BE
PLENTIFUL IN A VERY DRY AIR MASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPS IN THE 30S. PCP WATER VALUES WILL RUN AROUND A HALF INCH IN DRY
NW FLOW ALOFT UNDER PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.

MODELS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING BY TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT
WHICH MAY HELP THROW A FEW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CWA...BUT OVERALL CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL. WINDS MAY SPIKE UP
OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
REACHES DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT SW WINDS 5 MPH OR LESS
MOST PLACES BUT SOME AREAS TO THE NORTH AND ALONG THE COAST MAY
SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS TOWARD MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
RISE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF WAA. 850 TEMPS RISE FROM 3C
THIS MORNING UP TO 13C BY EARLY WED MORNING. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL
RISE UP INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE QUICKLY TRANSITIONED
FROM A DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH TO ESSENTIALLY A WESTERLY PATTERN BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A VERY WARM WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS
PATTERN BEFORE A MID LEVEL WEAKNESS MOVES ACROSS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE GFS IS PAINTING A LITTLE LIGHT QPF ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS TO BE UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS AT WORK. THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT HAVE THIS AND
WILL DISREGARD FOR NOW. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR
WEDNESDAY AND I HAVE FOLLOWED SUITE. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WITH A
LOW AMPLITUDE MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW. THERE ARE SIGNS OF A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT ANY
IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA WOULD BE FURTHER DOWN THE LINE.
OTHERWISE...ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES WITH POPS EACH DAY MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON VIA THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MODULATED BY THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE BUT OVERALL READINGS ARE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CENTER SETS UP OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG AROUND SUNRISE...BUT LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL THEN SHIFT FURTHER OFF SHORE HEADING INTO WED MORNING.
GUSTY NE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT AROUND
BECOMING MORE ON SHORE AND LIGHTEN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
HIGH MOVES CLOSER OVERHEAD. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT MOST
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP
THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM REACHES DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN S-SW WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS AGAIN BY
MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND AN INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS. SPEEDS
WILL GET A LITTLE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY ON THE LOWER END OF A 20-25
KNOT RANGE. WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY THURSDAY BUT REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SEAS WILL GET CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH 3-5 FEET AND POSSIBLY A FEW SIX FOOTERS. HEIGHTS WILL
DROP A BIT THURSDAY TO 2-4 FEET.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WIND SPEEDS WILL HOVER AROUND 15 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER
NEARSHORE WITH THE SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT EACH AFTERNOON...FULLY
INDICATIVE OF A SUMMER PATTERN. NOT SURPRISINGLY...WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MINOR SWELL COMPONENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST BUT
OVERALL SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL