Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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912 FXUS62 KILM 240150 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 850 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm air will prevail across the Carolinas through Saturday. A cold front approaching from the west will move offshore late Saturday. Cooler and drier air will build in Saturday night through Monday. Shower chances will increase mid week as a cold front approaches from the west. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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As of 745 PM Thursday...Have indicated the low chance, below 20 percent, POPs for mainly along the immediate coast from Cape Fear northward. Latest sat imagery shows cu/sc moving onshore. Latest KLTX 88D indicates just enough DB`s shown in conjunction with the onshore movement of the low level clouds for pcpn to occur. Will continue this low pcpn threat thru the night. QPF, a couple one hundredths of an inch possible. Overnight lows will remain unchanged however, hourly sfc temps and dewpoints will need updating based on latest trends along with hourly RH and apparent temps. However you look at it, another mild night in store for the bi-state region. The back edge of the mid and upper level clouds extended from Elizabethtown to Georgetown. Not much movement in any direction this evening, other than the clouds themselves. But do expect the back edge to progress to the immediate coast by sunrise Fri and further eastward during daytime Fri. Previous................................................... As of 230 PM Thursday...An isolated coastal shower is possible through early evening along the NNW periphery of a low pressure system moving northward out of the Bahama chain. The eastward progressing component of the system will pull low-end shower chances away from the NE SC/SE NC coasts overnight. Complete clearing however may not transpire as low-level marine flow slips beneath an inversion. Minimum temperatures by daybreak Friday should settle to 53-56 inland, and 57-60 near the sea. Partial clearing and a damp low-level moisture profile will lend to patchy fog pockets overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Thursday...Morning clouds will break Friday and in tandem with an upper ridge axis over the region, near record temperatures may be reached or exceeded. Record highs for tomorrow include CRE-78 in 1996, ILM-81 in 1982, FLO-82 in 1962, LBT-77 in 2016. Afternoon heat-induced cumulus expected Friday. Another warm one Saturday in a pre-frontal sector and breezier. Maximums may be similar to Friday, to a few degrees cooler near the coast and well inland. The moisture profiles are quite dry Saturday and an isolated shower may even be too hopeful with FROPA in the mid afternoon to very early evening west to east. Mammoth temperature differences from Saturday afternoon to Sunday morning, drops of 35-40 degrees. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 230 PM Thursday...Cold advection weakens on Sun but the colder air will be in place and temperatures will drop near to slightly below climo, despite plenty of sun and deep westerly flow aloft. Surface high moves off the coast later in the day with return flow developing then increasing for Mon as 5h trough to the west starts to amplify. Southern stream shortwave will emerge from the southwest this weekend but its evolution remains the subject of much debate between the medium range guidance. It appears likely that the wave will be deamplifying as it heads east, lifting northwest of the area Mon night. The associated surface low will drag a boundary into the region but lack of strong mid level trough/push leaves the surface boundary hanging. Latest GFS has it stalled in the area with a period of unsettled weather Mon night through Wed night (albeit with temps above to well above climo). The ECMWF depicts a stronger 5h ridge over the southern Gulf of Mexico which expands north Wed leading to a slightly warmer and drier forecast compared to the GFS. Wed night into Thu medium range guidance converges on a cold front pushing across the area, pushed east by longwave 5h trough. Front would be accompanied by showers and likely some thunder with cold advection following the front dropping temps back near climo as the period ends. Confidence for much of the period is low due in large part to the problems guidance tends to have with split flow.
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&& .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 23Z...Latest satellite loop showing some clearing along the coast from KCRE up to KILM with a mid deck of bkn clouds across KMYR as well as over KFLO. High pressure across inland VA/NC/SC with a weak coastal trough off the NC/SC coast. issue for tonight will be the light onshore flow across the region bringing in some low level moisture and the chance of fog across the terminals. Models differ on the extent of the cloud cover which will impact our fog potential. Previous tafs had introduced some IFR over inland zones where cloud cover may be hard- pressed to materialize, but also extended to tempo group for KMYR and KCRE. Otherwise VFR through the remainder of the evening as well as soon after sunrise friday. Extended Outlook...VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 745 PM Thursday...SCA in effect for all waters, mainly due to seas reaching SCA thresholds. Update concerned with the timing of the increasing seas. Frying pan shoals 41013 buoy already having surpassed 7 ft with inshore buoys at 3 to 5 ft. Overall, looking at 3 to 6 ft for seas by daybreak Fri and holding steady thru Friday. Both the upper and sfc lows respectively, were located over the Bahamas this evening and are progged to lift northeast to a location at approximately 300 miles southeast of Cape Fear by daybreak Fri. The sfc pg will remain somewhat loose, with 10 to 15 kt resulting, and the sfc pressure pattern will yield NE wind directions. Could see isolated light showers over the coastal waters, mainly north of Little River Inlet. Previous................................................. As of 230 PM Thursday...Advisory posted tonight mainly for seas as a SE swell begins to propagate to shore, courtesy of a low pressure system moving north out of the Bahamas. Latest wave guidance shows SE waves at 7 feet every 9 seconds overnight at Frying Pan Shoals through much of Friday. An under- lying E swell of 1-2 feet will boost significant wave heights in the 4-8 foot range from outer to inner waters. A few marine showers will dot the waters tonight but should remain light with no TSTMS or marine fog expected. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Thursday...Advisory for seas much of Friday as a SE swell plays out. NE 5-15 knot winds to accompany the formidable swell, will become light and variable Friday night. As a front approaches Saturday SW winds 10-20 knots to prevail before a shift to the NW-N Saturday evening. An advisory or exercise caution statement is possible just before and then after the frontal passage. Very little precipitation expected so no restrictions to visibility expected Saturday or in the night, but the winds may be challenging and chop will run moderate to strong. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 PM Thursday...Offshore flow will weaken Sun as cold advection shuts off and gradient weakens due to approach of the center of the surface high. Northerly flow becomes light and variable Sun night, becoming southerly Mon morning as the high pushes off the coast. South to southwest flow increases to 10 to 15 kt Mon into Tue as gradient becomes a little more defined. Seas 2 to 4 ft Sun drop to 2 to 3 ft Sun night and Mon before the slight increase in southwest flow later Mon and Tue pushes seas back up to 2 to 4 ft.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ254-256. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...III NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...III AVIATION...MAC MARINE...

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