Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 021832 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 232 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN. A COLD UPPER LOW WILL DIP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRYING AND WARMING WILL FOLLOW INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1220 PM MONDAY...SHOWERS JUST STARTING TO POP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AND A FEW INLAND LOCATIONS. BASED ON EARLIER REASONING...THE FORECAST OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STILL LOOKS GOOD. RELEVANT PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FROM THIS MORNING FOLLOWS: ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDING DATA SHOWS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE COLUMN DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR CONVECTION. PRESENT FORECAST OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING STILL LOOKS GOOD...AS DOES THE POTENTIAL FOR THE ODD STRONG OR SEVERE STORM. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TODAY AS PLENTIFUL COLUMN MOISTURE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT LEE-SIDE TROUGH TEAM UP. ANY STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH UPSTREAM OF HERE WILL BE CAPABLE OF TRAVELING OUR WAY GIVEN THE STEERING FLOW IN PLACE. TRAINING OF CELLS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AS WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY...WHILE THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE LATER TODAY. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BRING MAXIMUMS INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 80S TODAY INLAND...UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT TONIGHT WILL SUSTAIN SCATTERED TO LIKELY POP VALUES INTO TUESDAY WITH MILD MINIMUMS OF 65-70 AND A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY MAY VERY WELL END UP AS THE WETTEST DAY IN TERMS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL AS AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS THE PRIMARY HEAVY RAIN AXIS CLOSER TO THE COAST. RAIN AMOUNT TOTALS TODAY AND TUESDAY 1-2 INCHES BUT CERTAINLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LOCALLY WILL BE SEEN DUE TO THE HIT AMD MISS NATURE OF ROBUST CONVECTION...OR CELL TRAINING. MID-LEVEL DRYING TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON CONVECTION AND A DECREASE IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY...TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN WAKE OF A FRONT. THE W WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND LACK OF COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MAXIMUM TEMPS TUE AND WED TO BE SIMILAR...OR A JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER WED. WITH GOOD LAPSE RATES IN PLACE TUE AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDING A FOCUS...A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST TUE. COOLING WILL BRING LOWS LATE WED INTO THU IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT AND THE RIDGE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SHALLOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWN SOMEWHAT. BY THE WEEKEND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST WEAKENS. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE LATEST MEX NUMBERS SOAR INTO THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS...AS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. I DID INCREASE THE VALUES FOR THE WEEKEND A BIT TO REPRESENT THE LATEST NUMBERS STILL REMAINING SOMEWHAT BELOW. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...LOCALIZED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG SEA BREEZE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AS BOUNDARY PUSHES INLAND FARTHER AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS ACTIVITY AND THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINING WEST OF LUMBERTON. THINK ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z. MVFR WILL BE THE FAVORED CATEGORY WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG COLD FRONT THROUGH WED MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1220 PM MONDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SEAS RIGHT AROUND 3 FT WITH S TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE...NO CHANGES REQUIRED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWS: MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...SUSTAINING A BUMPY 3-4 FT ACROSS THE NE SC AND SE NC 0-20 NM WATERS. TSTMS MAY POSE A THREAT LATER TODAY AS STEERING WINDS GUIDE STORMS TOWARD THE COAST. STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS...SEA HEIGHTS AND WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR STORMS. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SSW WAVES OF 3 FT EVERY 5-6 SECONDS...CO- MINGLED ON TOP OF A 1-2 FOOT E-SE WAVE EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40-50 KT GUSTS AND MARINERS OUGHT TO CONSIDER A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE VENTURING TO SEA. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 910 AM MONDAY...DESPITE AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AND A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY...NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED. AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE HOWEVER MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF TUE OR TUE NIGHT FOR 15-20 KT SW WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS WILL POSE A THREAT TO MARINERS AND RADAR UPDATES ARE SUGGESTED...AS SOME STORMS MAY REQUIRE WARNINGS. THE BRUNT OF WAVE ENERGY WILL BE TIED TO LOCAL WINDS AND THEREFORE SOMEWHAT STEEP WAVE-FACES RUNNING IN 5-6 SECOND INTERVALS. CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO PLAGUE THE WATERS THIS PERIOD. WED THE FLOW WILL EASE AND BECOME W BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. TSTMS WILL BE LESS IN NUMBER WED COMPARED TO TUE. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...EXPECT SOME STRONGER WINDS FOR THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL JUST BE MOVING OFFSHORE. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH SPEEDS REACHING 15-20 KNOTS BY DAYS END. BY FRIDAY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DIMINISH AS WILL THE WIND SPEEDS TO 10-15 KNOTS. GUIDANCE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL CRAFT SEAS FOR THURSDAY AS IT WOULD BE MARGINAL AT BEST. FOR NOW MAINTAINED A 2-4 FOOT RANGE WITH JUST A FEW HOURS OF FIVE FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...RGZ MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK

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