Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 210541 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 141 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1100 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED. RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER. GUSTY NE WINDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL ABATING TREND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM. FOR THE SAME REASON CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE DRY AIR IMPINGING UPON WESTERN ZONES WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING. $$ .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...STACKED LOW EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST DRIFT MON. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HELPS DRY THINGS OUT. PRECIP WILL LIKELY END BEFORE THE START OF THE PERIOD SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH INHERITED DRY FORECAST FOR MON AND MON NIGHT. CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/NORTHEAST FLOW TRAPPED UNDER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND BY MIDDAY THINK MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE NC COAST WILL SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. BRIEF MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE MON AND MON NIGHT BUT BY TUE MORNING THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OFFSHORE AND HEIGHTS START FALLING AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW ALLOWS SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION ON TUE. INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH RISE IN SURFACE BASED MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT. COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED IN PART DUE TO DEEPEST MOISTURE ARRIVING AFTER PEAK INSTABILITY AND PALTRY CONVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL JETTING. TEMPERATURES START OFF BELOW CLIMO MON THEN APPROACH CLIMO MON NIGHT. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH HIGHS ABOVE CLIMO TUE WITH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO TUE NIGHT DESPITE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPMENT OF COLD ADVECTION AS PERIOD ENDS.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM LEADS TO A GOOD CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE LOWERS BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME AS SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. TO START OFF THE LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST WITH GRADUAL WARMING. EXPECTING VERY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN BY THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. FOR FRIDAY A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AS A BROAD AND RELATIVELY FLAT H/5 TROUGH DROPS OVER EASTERN CONUS. AS UPPER SUPPORT AND THERMAL CONTRAST ARE ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH THIS SYSTEM IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT WHEN A REAL CLEAR-CUT FROPA WILL OCCUR. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. LACKING ANY CONVINCING SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE SEASONAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE ANY MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENTS LIKE THAT RECENTLY EXPERIENCED ARE LIKELY. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS APPROACH AND MOISTURE ADVECTS IN THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE SPOTTY DIURNAL-TYPE CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN VFR THRESHOLDS. THE LAST OF THE RAINFALL WAS WELL OFFSHORE AND WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY. NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 15 KT AND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST AROUND 20 KT. AFTER DAYBREAK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 12 KT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE ADVISORY EXPIRES FROM S TO N THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N AT UP TO 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH DAYBREAK. AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE AREA...WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND SHOULD FALL BELOW THRESHOLD DURING THE DAY. HIGHLY AGITATED SEAS...FROM DAYS OF NE FLOW...WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...SOUTH...AND MID EVE...N WATERS. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE MON THOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN. CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE BORDERLINE SCA BUT BY MIDDAY ANY HEADLINES SHOULD BE ENDING. NORTHERLY FLOW DROPS UNDER 10 KT BY MON NIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS TUE WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING THEN INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW PEAKS AROUND 20 KT JUST BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY TUE NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND SURFACE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. SEAS FLIRTING WITH 6 FT NEAR 20 NM AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SUBSIDE DURING MON...FALLING TO 2 TO 4 FT MON AFTERNOON AND 2 TO 3 FT MON NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW LATER TUE BUMPS SEAS BACK TO 3 TO 5 FT BUT DURATION AND STRENGTH OF SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO REQUIRE ADDITIONAL HEADLINES. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...EXPECTING RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSIT THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THAT WILL GRADUALLY DROP FROM A 2 TO 4 FT RANGE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 2 FT OR LESS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SW ON FRIDAY TO 15 TO 20 KT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ254-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...REK AVIATION...SGL/RJD

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