Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KILM 150902 CCA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
354 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017
High pressure will extend into the Carolinas through Monday night. A
warming trend will take place Tuesday and Wednesday in southerly
winds ahead of the next cold front. Cooler and drier high pressure
will build in behind this front, but low pressure moving up from the
Gulf coast may produce some unsettled weather through late week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Sunday...Uninteresting, flat, non-descript surface
pressure pattern will predominate as a flimsy high pressure cell
attempts to assert a push southward into our geo-domain this
afternoon and tonight. As a result, light wind this period. Looking
at satellite data this morning, reveals periods of sunshine will
beam down on NE SC and SE NC, that is, once mist-pockets and fog-
banks are burned by the sun, gradually vaporizing into the gaseous
portion of the water cycle. Temperature-wise, insolation should
boost max-T values in the middle 60s to lower 70s from NE to SW
respectively, the mildest readings over the deep interior of NE SC
with cooler air wedging SSW-ward from LBT to EYF to Burgaw.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Sunday...The main headline this period is that there
really is no significant headline. The corrosion of a feeble high
pressure wedge Monday gets eaten away by very early Tuesday as warm
air advection fans eastward. Fragile over-running could trip off
sketchy light rain monday night and early Tuesday, but here we have
a QPF forecast one cannot sink their teeth into. Great news if you
like mild January days, Tuesday into the lower 70s for much of the
region as SW winds broadcasts warm air across NE SC and SE NC.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Shortwave riding around a broad trough
over the Upper Great Lakes will push a cold front into the
Carolinas on Wed. This front should move through Wed aftn
accompanied by clouds and a chance of a shower. A warmer and
moister southerly flow ahead of the front will be replaced with
a drier and relatively cooler N-NW flow Wed night into early
Thurs as weak high pressure builds in behind front. Both models
show the front clearing the area but the ECMWF brings this front
back north as a warm front by late Thurs as low pressure moves
northward from the western Gulf up the Mississippi. The GFS is
slower pushing the front south and therefore keeps pcp into Wed
night and then shows a much weaker low moving north on Fri. With
all of this uncertainty and inconsistency with timing and
features, it makes for a tough long range forecast. Until these
features get resolved, will keep more unsettled weather in the
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 06Z...Patchy but dense fog appears poised to plague all
terminals as night-time 11-3.9 micron imagery shows partially
clear skies across SE NC and NE SC. As a result, areas of IFR
due to CIGS/VSBY BTWN 8Z-14Z can be expected. After daybreak,
lingering low CIGS will gradually disperse, with MVFR to VFR
conditions. WNW winds Sunday morning 4-8 KTS becoming NE in the
afternoon as a high pressure wedge is reinforced. Another round
of IFR/MVFR due to CIGS/VSBY may be on tap late Sunday night.
Extended Outlook...Stratus/fog possible each morning through
Tuesday. Cold front expected Wednesday will be accompanied by
showers and MVFR. Otherwise expect VFR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Sunday...Agreeable boating conditions today, will get a
little bumpy late afternoon to early evening, as high pressure noses
southward over the 0-20 NM waters. Gusts to 20 KT tonight expected
putting seas in a 3-4 foot range, but advisory flags not expected.
The bulk of wave energy for today remains linked with an E swell
train whose intervals are running at 11-12 seconds. Thus a lazy
undulation with light chop, not bad. No TSTMS this period but patchy
fog from Winyah Bay to Murrells Inlet early this morning will burn
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Sunday...A bit rugged and uneven in the early going as
sturdy NE winds bring a bluster, gusting to 20 KT from NE Monday
morning. After this however it`s smooth sailing with no flags or
marine hazards in the cards. High pressure over land will slip
offshore, turning winds from the S-SW during the day Tuesday and
sustained into Tuesday night. No TSTMS this period but patches of
light rain may fall Monday night and very early Tuesday. Wind-waves
will be dominant Monday, then handed over to longer period swell
Monday night and Tuesday.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Expect SW flow possibly reaching up to 15
kts or so ahead of cold front on Wed. This front will be slower
to move through and may get stretched from west to east and
possibly stall before dropping south Wed night into Thurs. Seas
may reach up to 3 to 5 ft, especially in the outer waters on
Wed. The off shore component to the flow will keep highest seas
off shore through much of Wed especially as the front draws near
and winds veer to a more westerly direction. Expect a deeper N
to NW flow behind it but on the weak side. Therefore expect seas
to lower through Thurs down less than 3 ft by Fri morning.