Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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972 FXUS62 KILM 031625 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1225 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A COLD UPPER LOW WILL DIP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING CHILLIER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED GUSTY SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRYING AND WARMING WILL FOLLOW INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1220 PM TUESDAY...WE ARE IN OUR EXPECTED LULL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTIAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST NOW IN PROGRESS. STILL EXPECT REGENERATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING LEADS TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWS: THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE THREAT OF DAMAGING TSTMS. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTION ARE EXPECTED TODAY...THE FIRST THIS MORNING AS A LINE OF MODERATE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTM DOWNPOURS PROGRESSES SEAWARD ACROSS NE SC AND SE NC THROUGH MORNING HOURS...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE IMPULSING TRACKING ENE OVERHEAD. SO FAR THIS ACTIVITY HAS NOT HAD A HISTORY OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS. RE-GENERATION APPEARS LIKELY AND POSSIBLY SEVERE...DURING OR FOLLOWING PEAK HEATING AND PERSISTING THROUGH EVENING. CAPE AXIS OF 2000 J/KG AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE OF 800 J/KG TRACK NE ACROSS THE AREA MID- AFTN TO MID- EVENING. HELICITY FIELDS ARE NOT HIGH BUT ENOUGH LAYERED BULKSHEAR APPEARS AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS 65-70...AND A HYBRID INVERTED-V PROFILE. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 4Z. PRIMARY THREAT DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND CLOUDS TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. LOCALIZED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO PARTIAL TRAINING OF SCT +TSRA CELLS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...CHIEF HEADLINE THIS PERIOD IS A DRYING AND COOLING TREND...AS MID-LEVEL DRYING GEARS UP WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL SWOOP SE AND BRING GUSTY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY BY 10 DEG F. CHILLY MINIMUMS EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW AS UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE AREA. FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES BUT DRYNESS ALOFT...SO MAY END UP WITH ISOLATED GUSTY SHOWERS AT TIMES BOTH WED/THU. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ESSENTIALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BY MONDAY A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH SOUTH BUT AS WE PROGRESS FURTHER TOWARD SUMMER...THESE SYSTEMS STRUGGLE TO MAKE INROADS THROUGH OUR AREA. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE REMAINS ON THE WARM SIDE AS WE HOLD TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW. THE ONLY POPS IN THE FORECAST ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MEANDERING UPPER LEVEL LOW FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 12Z...THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS AT TAF TIME. THE CONVECTION IS ENDING FROM SW-NE AS AN UPPER IMPULSE NOTED IN WV IMAGERY MOVES NE. WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE A DECREASING TREND IN THUNDERSTORM/SHOWER ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL FOR AOB VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. WITH SUBSIDENCE AND CLOUDINESS BEHIND THE DEPARTING ACTIVITY IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL JUST INDICATE VCSH/VCTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ATTM. AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS MORNING TAF SITES WILL BE VFR BUT CANNOT DISCOUNT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS LATE THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS DEVELOPS AND THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY RE-FORMS. VFR THIS EVENING BUT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT THE INTRODUCTION OF COOLER AIR MAY CAUSE MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO DEVELOP. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SCT 4SM SHRA THU AND && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1220 PM TUESDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS STILL PREVALENT OVER THE WATERS...WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS AND SW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. PRIMARY THREAT TO BOATING THIS MORNING MAY ACTUALLY BE FROM THUNDERSTORMS...WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWS: EXERCISE CAUTION MARINE CONDITIONS TO PRECEDE A COLD FRONT WITH 15-20 KT SW WINDS AND 4-5 FT SEAS OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL PRODUCE SEVERE MARINE WINDS OF UP TO 50 KT IN SPOTS. MARINERS SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE HEADING OUT TODAY OR TONIGHT. BUMPY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT...AND BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY MORE TREACHEROUS IN AND NEAR TSTMS...AND KILLER CLOUD TO WATER STRIKES. DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD WILL MAKE FOR STEEP SEAS...RUNNING EVERY 5-6 SECONDS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...THE MAIN MARINE HEADLINE THIS PERIOD IS DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER BANKS WED AND POTENTIALLY STRENGTHENING THU. THIS IS GOING TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN OFFSHORE NW WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT COOLER AIR TEMPERATURES. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF THE LOW IS DEEP ENOUGH FOR 25 KT NW WINDS THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. SEAS COULD REACH 5 FT OFFSHORE THU BUT INSHORE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FEET. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...CONSISTENT WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK PERIOD FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY. THE WATERS WILL BE IN NO MANS LAND...IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS SETUP WILL DELIVER NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE CONSISTENT AS WELL...WITH 2-4 FEET AND THE HIGHEST WAVES FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH THE FLOW.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MRR MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK

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