Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS62 KILM 192213
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
514 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017
Weak high pressure will slowly build across the area through
Monday, shifting offshore mid week. Temperatures will remain
unseasonably warm through much of the week. A risk for showers
will increase late Friday into Saturday ahead of an approaching
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 245 PM Sunday...Upper ridge will build eastward overnight with
its axis remaining west of the Forecast Area. Weak surface high
pressure across the area will be reinforced by high pressure
centered across eastern Canada overnight.
Skies will be clear with lows dropping into the mid and upper
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Sunday...Upper ridge will continue to drift eastward
with its axis moving across the area Tue and then offshore Tue
night. The strong surface high centered across eastern Canada will
ridge southward Mon with the center migrating to off the Mid-
Atlantic coast Tue and the Carolina coast Tue night. Cooler air will
work its way into the area Mon night and Tue with 850 mb temps
dropping to around 6 deg C. A series of shortwave troughs, embedded
in developing NW flow late in the period may bring a shower late Tue
night, but given the residual dryness below 5-6 kft, will refrain
from including even a small POP at this time. There may be some late
night fog Tue night as onshore flow brings increasing dewpoints.
Highs Mon will still be well above normal, lower to mid 70s with the
beaches stymied in the mid and upper 60s. Highs on Tue will be
mainly in the mid and upper 60s with a few 70 degree readings across
portions of the Pee Dee Region which is still above normal. Lows
will be in the 40s Mon night and mainly lower 50s Tue night.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 PM Sunday...The mid level pattern will be mostly zonal
through the period. A shearing system will move through the
Ohio Valley late Friday into early Saturday with a cold front at
the surface. This will replace a very warm and moist airmass
that will be in place Wedensday through Friday. The highest pops
through the period occur with the front but are capped at low
chance. There are low pops for Wednesday and Thursday based on
interestingly enough a diurnal convective signature but activity
seems a stretch. Temperatures cool off for Sunday but otherwise
expect highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 00Z...High confidence in VFR through the valid period.
Light northwest flow tonight. Moisture profiles due not support fog,
however there could be some ground fog in the usual prone areas just
before sunrise. Predominately northeast flow on Monday with high
pressure centered north of the region. Quite dry at all levels.
Extended Outlook...VFR. Showers possible Wednesday and Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Sunday...High pressure will be reinforced overnight as
Canadian high pressure ridges south. NW winds will veer to N late
tonight. Wind speeds will increase from near 10 kt to 10 to 15 kt.
Seas will remain 2 ft or less.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Sunday....The center of high pressure will drift south
and be centered just offshore Tue night. N winds near daybreak Mon
will veer to NE Mon morning. NE winds will then remain into Tue
before veering to SE to SW Tue night. Given the proximity of high
pressure, the wind direction may become light and variable for a
time Tue night. Wind speeds will be highest Mon and especially Mon
night, around 15 kt. Seas will be highest Mon night, up to 3 to 4 ft
and lowest Tue night, 1 to 2 ft.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM Sunday...Essentially a summer like pattern for the marine
community throuigh the period. With Bermuda high pressure being the
main driver of winds expect a southeast flow of ten knots or less
through the period. There is a Piedmont trough analyzed both
Wednesday and Thursday with the westerly flow aloft but it appears
weak and doesn`t seem to bump up the winds any. Significant seas
will be reflective of the light wind fields with 1-3 feet and in
most cases 1-2 feet.