Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 160627 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 227 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Humid conditions and spot showers or thunderstorms will continue early this morning. Cooler temperatures are expected today and Monday with more thunderstorms as a stalled front lingers across the area. This front should dissipate Tuesday. Hot and humid conditions should redevelop for the second half of next week as high pressure expands eastward from the Central Plains states.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 225 AM Sunday...06Z surface map shows a quasi-stationary frontal boundary along or just north of the NC-VA line. Marginal instability still lingers after widespread convection Saturday evening, but will only be supportive of isolated shower-tstm activity for the remainder of the night. Mid-level trough sagging across the Carolinas today will help keep max temps in the upper 80s despite much of the forecast area likely remaining on the south side of the frontal boundary until perhaps late in the period. This boundary, along with the sea breeze, will provide the focus for thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Precipitable water values will be in excess of 2 inches generally south of a Darlington-Elizabethtown line, and this area coincides with the area highlighted by WPC for a slight risk of excessive rainfall during the period.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 225 AM Sunday...A weak front stalled in the vicinity will continue to dissipate as the western extension of the Bermuda ridge attempts to re-assert itself. A long-wave trough aloft will maintain its position over eastern CONUS. Model soundings and moisture profiles along with a continued boundry-rich environment and transient upper disturbances means we will continue to see a favorable environment for convection through the period. Model soundings do show significant drying at the mid-levels beginning Monday night so will be gradually ramping down pops through Tuesday night. Best chances for convection will be Monday afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms likely. SPC has not highlighted the area in any sort of risk category for severe weather. Temperatures may actually be a shade cooler than normal Monday with extensive cloud cover, precipitation and only a weak southerly flow in place. Temperatures will be more climatologically correct on Tuesday as the Bermuda ridge strengthens from the east.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Saturday...Deep mid to upper trough digging down from the Great Lakes to Georgia will lift north Tues into Wed. Both the GFS and Canadian models show H5 low cutting off at base of this mid to upper trough and then retrograding westward as ridge tries to build over area Wed through Sat. Tuesday will be transitional day with lingering convective development but clearing trend should develop from west to east as drier air advects in in the mid levels. Overall expect diminishing chances of convection with mainly localized shwrs/tstms focused along sea breeze boundary and Piedmont Trough Wed through Fri. A broad trough will push a cold front south but that should not affect our local area until next weekend. Plenty of sunshine and rising heights will push temps back into the 90s Wed through the end of the week with warmest days Thurs into Fri. Overnight lows will remain in the 70s in a continued warm and humid summertime air mass.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 06Z Saturday...Some potential for IFR visibilities in the few hours before sunrise due to residual moisture and light winds, but confidence is low. For now will continue with forecast for low stratus inland and monitor for fog development. Expect numerous thunderstorms to develop early to mid afternoon, with the prime window 18-00Z. Any storms will likely persist at least a few hours after sunset. Extended Outlook...The threat for flight restrictions due to numerous thunderstorms will occur Sunday night and Monday. The frontal boundary should dissipate during Tuesday, ending the threat for significant convection. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 225 AM Sunday...Shower and tstm activity has waned over the waters, and despite latest hi-res model guidance indicating continued potential for activity overnight, expect any storm development for the rest of the night to remain isolated. Otherwise, southwesterly flow around Bermuda high will continue through the period, with a gradient generally supportive of 10-15 knots of wind and accompanied by seas of 2-3 feet. Numerous storms are expected to develop over land by mid afternoon today, and move offshore across the waters late, similar to Saturday. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 AM Sunday...A weak pressure gradient will continue to prevail through the short term as the western extension of the Bermuda ridge attempts to re- assert itself and a stalled front dissipates inland. Winds will remain primarily from the SW at around 10 kts through the period with seas ranging from 2 to 3 ft. The primary threat to mariners through this period will continue to be in the form of convection, with the good chance for showers and thunderstorms for both days. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Any remnants of cold front will dissipate allowing Bermuda High to regain control at the surface with S-SW flow mainly 10 kts or less. Expect less widespread showers and thunderstorms as ridge builds aloft through mid week with more of a nocturnal peak in convection. Sea/land breeze will produce a spike and backing of winds in the afternoon into early evening and veering of winds to a more off shore flow overnight.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...REK NEAR TERM...CRM SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...CRM MARINE...REK/RGZ/CRM

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