000
FXUS62 KILM 161945
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
345 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFFSHORE. A MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CREATE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DRIER AND CONTINUED WARM WEATHER WILL DEVELOP THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...VERY WARM SUMMER LIKE DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 MOST PLACES. WILMINGTON
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REACHED 90 FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ALONG
WITH ELIZABETHTOWN AND FEW OTHER PLACES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA.
CLOUDS WERE SLIGHTLY THICKER OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON
HELPING TO STABILIZE THE RISING TEMPS THERE AND KEEPING MOST TEMPS
JUST BELOW 90. A GREATER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS  HELPED THE HEATING PROCESS AND KEPT SEA
BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS IT PENETRATED INLAND A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS DROPPED A FEW DEGREES RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
UNLIKE YESTERDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PASS OVERHEAD FILTERING
OUT THE SUN AT TIMES AND THE WINDS WERE MUCH LIGHTER. CLOUDS WERE
SLIGHTLY THICKER OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO
STABILIZE THE RISING TEMPS THERE.

SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE.  LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS
AND MOISTURE PROFILES...THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE RISING. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE MOST PART WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. THE WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE MID 60S MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A BERMUDA RIDGE WILL KEEP IT WARM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS PERIOD. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND SHOULD BE NEAR THE
ONSLOW-PENDER COUNTY LINE FRI NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED AS IT STALLS OUT COMPLETELY. THE
FRONT SHOULD TEND TO LIFT BACK TO THE N AS THE FLOW BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY SW...AND S BELOW 5 KFT ON SAT. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

A SHARP SEABREEZE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ON
FRI...RETARDED SOMEWHAT BY THE RATHER DEEP...BUT WEAK...WESTERLY
FLOW. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE MUCH BETTER PROGRESS INLAND ON SAT
GIVEN THE PREVAILING FLOW.

IN TERMS OF HOW THIS WILL AFFECT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. IT WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRI SHOULD BE WARMER THAN SAT GIVEN
THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ISOLATED. EITHER WAY...BOTH DAYS WILL BE WELL UP IN THE
80S. A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE FRI...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE. THE BEACHES AND NEARBY LOCATIONS WILL BE
WARMEST ON FRI...PERHAPS REACHING 80 DEGREES. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL
ALSO BE ABOVE NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

GIVEN SUBSIDENT FLOW WILL LINGER AND DRY AIR WILL BE TOUGH TO
DISPLACE FRI...WILL INCLUDE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE FRI EVE ACROSS PENDER AND BLADEN COUNTIES WHICH WILL
BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT. A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON SAT AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION. CAPE VALUES BECOME SIGNIFICANT...IN
EXCESS OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...INDICATIVE OF GOOD INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BELOW 7 DEG C/KM WHICH SHOULD
HINDER MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. STILL...WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING SEABREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH. COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENHANCED
BY THE WEAK MID-LEVEL SUPPORT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND W OF INTERSTATE
95. WILL CARRY UP TO LOW-END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES
OF OUR FORECAST AREA SAT AFTERNOON AND EVE...WITH POPS DECREASING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE PUMPING WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO
THE REGION. WHILE THIS TYPICALLY SUPPORTS TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION...THE BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL BE SUN/MON.
UPPER IMPULSE ROTATING SLOWLY AROUND BUILDING 5H RIDGE WILL TRACK
NEARLY OVERHEAD SUN AND MON. THIS OCCURS IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS APPROACHING 1.8 INCHES...OR NEARLY 2 SD`S
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-MAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER
FORCING...SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OF 1000-2000 J/KG...SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH...AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID
60S...SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BOTH SUN AND MON AFTN. ML LAPSE
RATES WILL BE ONLY MARGINAL HOWEVER...5-6 C/KM...SO WHILE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE PRETTY WIDESPREAD...SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY.

BY TUESDAY...UPPER VORT SWINGS OFFSHORE LEAVING SOME SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND IT IN CONJUNCTION WITH BUILDING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES. WHILE
COLUMN REMAINS QUITE MOIST...OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
DECREASED ON TUESDAY...AND EVEN MORESO WED/THU WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE REGION AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING DUE TO THE
BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
60S. A SLIGHT WARM UP MAY OCCUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
CIRRUS OPACITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...BECOMING BKN IN NATURE...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...BKN/OVC SKY COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT...WITH FEW
MID CLOUDS AROUND IN THE MORNING AND WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 8 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...KEEPING EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR OUR NC
WATERS THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR 3 TO 5 FT SEAS AND SW WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS. GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING OVER NEW ENGLAND LIFTS FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL LEAVE A SW RETURN FLOW AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS HEADING INTO
THE MORNING. SEAS OVER SC WATERS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE
WITH SW WINDS CLOSER TO 15 KT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SSW TO SW THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE PROXIMITY OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE SHOULD KEEP WINDS 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST N OF THE WATERS FRI NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING
BACK TO THE N.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE CREATES PERSISTENT S/SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS. WHILE
MINOR DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS IN DIRECTION/SPEED ARE LIKELY DURING
THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED. EVEN THOUGH E/SE SWELL WILL SLOWLY GROW IN AMPLITUDE
WITH AN INCREASING PERIOD DURING THE EXTENDED...TO
2-3FT/10SEC...WAVES WILL STILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE DOMINATED.
SEAS OF 2-4 FT CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH A S/SW WIND WAVE
OVERLAYING THE E/SE SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ/SGL
MARINE...RJD/JDW/RGZ