Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 210255 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 955 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO...AND THEN MOVES ACROSS...THE REGION. A DEVELOPING STORM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BRINGING MILDER...BUT WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY WILL USHER COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION MID-WEEK INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS BEING DISPLACED SOUTHEAST BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT...CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM ABOUT PHILADELPHIA, PA...TO KNOXVILLE, TN...TO JACKSON, MS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY TO THE SE...BEFORE TAKING ON A MORE E-TO-W ORIENTATION AS IT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE ILM CWA LATE TONIGHT. NO PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY...AND EVEN VERY LITTLE CLOUDINESS IS PROGGED THANKS TO VERY LOW PWATS IN THE COLUMN. THE BIGGEST NOTICEABLE IMPACT WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT AND A RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...W/SW WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THANKS TO A PINCHED GRADIENT...AND THUS TEMPS WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO FALL TONIGHT. EXCEPT ONLY A VERY SLOW FALL THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT ONCE WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE FROPA...EXPECTED BETWEEN 2AM AND DAWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...CAA WILL OCCUR IN EARNEST AND TEMPS WILL FALL RAPIDLY UNTIL MORNING. THIS CREATES A DIFFICULT MIN TEMP FORECAST...BUT MOS NUMBERS ARE IN TERRIFIC AGREEMENT. HAVE USED A CONSENSUS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE FROPA WILL OCCUR LATER...BUT GONE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MOS FOR THE NORTH WHERE A LONGER PERIOD OF CAA WILL OCCUR. THUS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 IN THE FAR NW TO ABOUT 37 ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER HEADLINE THIS PERIOD...DRY AND COOL. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE AREA KEEPING MAX/MIN TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHERN KY AT 12Z FRIDAY WILL MIGRATE TO RALEIGH NC 12Z SATURDAY TO OFFSHORE ALONG 35N BY 12Z SUNDAY. AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD RETURN FLOW AND MOUNTING COLUMN MOISTURE WILL TREND...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT POP VALUES ARE PLANNED UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. APPEARS THE AREA MAY BE GRAZED WITH HIGH ALTITUDE ICE CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY EXPECTED. COLDEST PART OF THIS PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING WITH AIR TEMPERATURES MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID 30S BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS. MILDEST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE PEAK HEATING OF SATURDAY WITH MIDDLE 50S NORTH TO LOW/MID 60S SC INTERIOR. LIGHT WIND THIS PERIOD EXPECT MODERATE WIND VERY BEGINNING AND END OF THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INCLUDING THE NAM AT 84 HOURS AS WELL AS THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY...A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE ALIGNED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEARING MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT. I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR ALL AREAS DUE TO THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE. AS WE DRAW CLOSER...ITS WORTH TAKING A LOOK AT SEVERE PARAMETERS AND THESE YIELD A HIGH SHEAR...NEAR 60 KNOTS 0-6 KM AND LOW CAPE...LESS THAN 200 J/KG EVENT. WHILE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW IT REMAINS WORTH MONITORING IN COMING DAYS. BEYOND SUNDAY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AND THE MOISTURE DEPICTION CONTINUES TO JOG EAST AND WEST WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS SO WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW CHANCE VALUES WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. DEEP TROUGHING FINALLY MOVES BELT OF MOISTURE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. A SECOND AND MORE POTENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MAY BRING A FEW SPRINKLES AND A QUICK SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR...AGAIN FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURE TRENDS REMAIN IN PLACE...VERY MILD SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A COOLING TREND THEREAFTER. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS. EXPECT FEW/SCT THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA AS A DRY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MAKING ITS WAY WELL OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS AND OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AND SUSTAINED WINDS WILL DROP TO AOB 8 KTS...WITH SKIES CLEARING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH PATCHY -RA. TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR/-RA COASTAL TERMINALS. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: SLOWLY TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW...AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEING DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH...IS CREATING GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTN. W/SW WINDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 15 KTS AT THE BUOYS...WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MAY EVEN STRENGTHEN A BIT TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL CREATE A RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 15-20 KTS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE PRESENTLY 2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND A FEW 5 FOOTERS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE 20 NM BOUNDARY OF THE NC WATERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. EVEN WITH THESE WINDS AND SEAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW CAUTIONARY THRESHOLDS AND THUS NO SCEC CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS TO KICK-OFF FRIDAY WITH 15-20 KT NNW-NNE WIND FOLLOWING DAYBREAK FRIDAY...IN WAKE OF A PRE-DAWN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BRIEF BREAK/LULL IN WIND SPEEDS LATE SATURDAY AS WINDS VEER TO SE 10 KT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIPS OFF LAND. SE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH. A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR 15-20 KT WIND AND 4-5 FT SEAS OFFSHORE MAY BE NEEDED VERY EARLY SATURDAY BUT FOR THE MOST PART WIND ALREADY EASING BY THIS TIME THOUGH SEAS MAY STILL BE AGITATED. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS A POTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 20-25 KNOTS DEVELOPS. THIS WILL RAMP SEAS QUICKLY UP FROM 1-3 FEET TO 6-8 FEET BY DAYS END. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONDITIONS NOT QUITE AS RUGGED MONDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWEST AND WEAKENS TO 15-20 KNOTS. SIMILAR FOR TUESDAY. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA MONDAY... 4-6 FEET DROPPING TO 3-5 FEET TUESDAY.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...REK/JDW SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MRR MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK

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