Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 011916 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 316 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES THE COAST. A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WARM FRONT IN PROCESS OF MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ATTENDANT PRECIP IS A BIT MORE VIGOROUS AND WIDESPREAD THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED AND THINK THAT GUIDANCE UNDERESTIMATED ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND STRENGTH OF UPPER SUPPORT. IN ANY CASE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDINGS STILL THINK THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MARGINAL BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE ODD STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. AREA OBSERVATIONS HOWEVER HAVE NOT SHOWN ANY STRONG WINDS ACCOMPANYING PRESENT CONVECTION AND SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ANY UPPER WINDS THAT MIX DOWN WOULD BE IN THE 25 KT RANGE. OF COURSE...RAIN- COOLED DOWNDRAFTS COULD BE MUCH STRONGER. HAVE LEANED ON THE HRRR FOR THE VERY NEAR TERM AS IT HAS INITIALIZED WELL. THIS DEPICTS OUR PRESENT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. S TO SW FLOW IN WAKE OF WARM FROPA WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST PLACES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN CONUS. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SERIES OF FACTORS COME IN TO PLAY...INCLUDING FAVORABLE UPPER WINDS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT...IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED MORE OR LESS ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT THAT BULK OF PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SURFACE SYSTEM EXITS AS THE PERIOD BEGINS WHILE ALOFT A MID LEVEL BLOCK WILL START SETTING UP. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THU...DRIVEN WELL OFF THE COAST BY LARGE 5H EAST COAST TROUGH/CUTOFF. THIS CUTOFF WILL FORM THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE BLOCK AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER LOWER MS VALLEY EXPANDS EAST. MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE LIMITED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH DEEP WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST FLOW PREVENT ANY MOISTURE RETURN. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WED-FRI CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED. IN ADDITION TO DEEP DRY AIR LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST SLOWLY EXPANDS EAST...WILL DROP NEAR CLIMO TEMPS WED BELOW TO WELL BELOW CLIMO THU THROUGH SAT. MID LEVEL RIDGING AND MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH EAST WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RETURNING NEAR CLIMO.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 17Z...MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN TEMPO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS INVOF SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA WITH S-SW FLOW...WHILE THE WIND FIELD REMAINS SKEWED IN AREAS OF CONVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY SHRA/TSRA. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PCPN MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY...LEAVING SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS IN ITS WAKE. SEAS WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM PRESENT HEIGHTS...RIGHT AROUND 3 FT...THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT WILL NOT LIKELY MAKE IT OFFSHORE BEFORE DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL STAY SW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ALTHOUGH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT ON TUESDAY MAY SEE WINDS BUMPED UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS FOR A TIME IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR UP TO 5 FT SHOULD WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. PERIOD BEGINS WITH LOW/FRONT COMBO MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH WESTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE ON THU WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. PINCHED GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION THU NIGHT AND FRI WILL PUSH WEST WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. GRADIENT AND ADVECTION RELAX ON FRI AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND WINDS DROP TO 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT THU IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS. REDUCTION IN SPEEDS LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO SEAS FALLING TO 2 TO 3 FT FRI.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...III AVIATION...SRP

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