Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 230651 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 251 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Waves of low pressure will develop along stalled cold front producing a good chance of showers and thunderstorms through mid week. A cold front trailing from a deep low pressure system over the Ohio Valley on Thursday will push through, bringing the final round of storms to the area. High pressure will build in on Friday maintaining quieter weather for much of the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 3 AM Tuesday...Moisture laden broad southwest flow will continue to impact the area through the near term period. Guidance has been somewhat consistent in showing another wave of showers and thunderstorms across the coast this morning and another more potent feature later this afternoon and evening. With some areas, albeit somewhat isolated showing 3-6 inches of storm total qpf already, it is prudent to issue a flash flood watch beginning this morning and lasting through 2 AM tonight. Based on the events of Monday we could easily see another 2-4 inches of rain with isolated higher amounts. Fortunately we haven`t seen a lot of rain the past couple of weeks so this will mitigate the situation to a certain degree. Severe threat remains in place but with very warm and obviously moist profiles it will take some doing for precipitation loading to manifest itself into severe gusts. SPC has most of the area in a marginal risk. Highs in the lower 80s with overnight lows in the middle to upper 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 3 AM Tuesday...Unsettled weather continues into the Short Term as a very slow moving frontal system tracks across the eastern Carolinas. Model disparities makes precip timing an issue for Wednesday so have opted for categorical pops, indicating widespread convection, through that 24 hour period. Although confidence is high that all locations will see measurable precip, if not a substantial amount for most places, confidence is low as to actual timing of the event. Thursday is a little more clear cut in that the front will be moving offshore early in the period, so bulk of remaining precip will be during the daytime, likely early, with a dry overnight.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 3 PM Monday...Deep frontal moisture to be offshore by the start of the period. However the main trough axis and strongest shortwave will be crossing the area and this should manage to squeeze a few light and short-lived showers. Continued dry advection and the lifting of the trough Thursday night should keep us dry despite one last final and moderately strong vorticity center streaking by. Zonal flow will keep the weekend dry and fairly seasonable with only gradually increasing surface dewpoints.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 06Z Tuesday...Challenging conditions for the aviation community the next 24-36 hours and maybe beyond. For the near future, expect MVFR conditions area wide with some intervals of IFR mingled in as areas of showers and thunderstorms move through occasionally. During the next six to eight hours inland sites have the highest chances of IFR and have addressed with TEMPO groups through about 15 UTC. A little more iffy at the coast as another round of showers and thunderstorms move across which oddly enough keeps the boundary layer a little more active somewhat precluding fog and persistent lower ceilings. The best chance of widespread IFR conditions is late tonight in the wake of another round of convection when a weak surface pattern is left behind to work with all the low level moisture. Extended Outlook...Reduced flight categories will be possible in periodic showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. The strongest convective activity should occur Wednesday. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Tuesday....Somewhat distorted wind fields across the waters this morning due to earlier and current convection. A good southwest flow should reemerge in just a few hours however. Winds speeds increase to 15-20 knots later today and increase even further tonight leading to some marginal small craft seas of 5-7 feet. Will go ahead and raise an advisory for the afternoon and overnight hours. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Tuesday...The overall trend during the Short Term will be one of gradually increasing SW winds and building seas in advance of a slowly moving cold front. The front will be over or near the waters on Thursday morning, at which point we will likely see some loosening of the gradient and a subsequent decrease in winds and seas during the afternoon. Until then, though, it is likely that Small Craft Advisory conditions will be breached on Wednesday or Wednesday night. Expect frequent period of shower and thunderstorm activity Wednesday and Wednesday night, with improving conditions on Thursday. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...Small Craft Advisory will be in effect on Thursday just ahead of a cold front that will pinch the gradient. Within the agitated wind field of the pinched gradient a strong upper disturbance will traverse the area possibly to enhance wind gusts. In the wake of this boundary there will be west winds to round out the period of gradually diminishing speed. Wave heights will similarly abate somewhat slowly.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through late tonight for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056. Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ054-056. NC...Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through late tonight for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...REK NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SHK MARINE...REK/MBB/SHK

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