Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FGUS72 KILM 291505
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NCC017-019-047-129-141-155-SCC031-033-041-043-051-067-069-089-
121515-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1005 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...

RAINFALL DURING THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS HAS BEEN NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR...THE AREA IS DROUGHT FREE DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL.
THE TABLE BELOW SUMMARIZES PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT AREA OBSERVATION
SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...JANUARY 28TH...FOR VARIOUS TIME SCALES.

WILMINGTON NC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      4.91      3.59      1.32       137%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      9.90      7.11      2.79       139%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)     14.58     10.37      4.21       141%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     29.57     29.18      0.39       101%
                ONE YEAR      62.16     60.74      1.42       102%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     68.96     67.48      1.48       102%

LUMBERTON NC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      4.69      2.77      1.92       169%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      7.47      5.60      1.87       133%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)     10.31      8.45      1.86       122%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     17.78     21.07     -3.29        84%
                ONE YEAR      44.09     45.97     -1.88        96%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     53.85     51.59      2.26       104%

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH SC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      4.09      3.41      0.68       120%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      7.29      6.79      0.50       107%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)     11.15      9.84      1.31       113%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     21.91     27.08     -5.17        81%
                ONE YEAR      43.37     55.00    -11.63        79%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     49.45     61.34    -11.89        81%

FLORENCE SC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      2.43      3.12     -0.69        78%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      5.63      6.02     -0.39        94%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)      9.25      8.69      0.56       106%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     22.76     20.41      2.35       112%
                ONE YEAR      44.63     45.62     -0.99        98%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     52.82     51.16      1.66       103%

SEVEN DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOW VALUES ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY
AT NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
UPSTREAM RESERVOIRS ARE ALSO AT NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS...A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE WEATHER UNTIL THEN
WILL BE DRY AND COLD. DURING THE EIGHT TO FOURTEEN DAY
PERIOD...NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE OUTLOOKS FOR
FEBRUARY AND FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL FROM THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER CALL FOR NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE
HEADWATERS OF AREA RIVERS.

IN CONSIDERATION OF THE ABOVE FACTORS...THIS OUTLOOK CALLS FOR
A NORMAL RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH APRIL.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
FEBRUARY 6TH.

$$

RAN







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