Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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619
FNUS52 KILM 202019
FWFILM

Fire Weather Planning Forecast
for Northeast South Carolina and Southeast North Carolina
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
419 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper and surface ridging will result in a warm and dry
forecast for this upcoming weekend. Both ridging, surface and
aloft, will slide offshore from the East coast of the U.S.
late this weekend. This will allow a potent low pressure system,
having dropped to the to Gulf Coast States by late this weekend,
to progress toward and across the local forecast area late Mon
afternoon thru Tue morning of next week. Showers along with
strong to possibly severe thunderstorms will accompany it.
Strong cold front will clear the area by midday Tue followed
by strong, cool and dry Canadian High pressure thru the mid
to late week period of next week.

Fog potential for tonight...Moderate to High.

NCZ105>110-211230-
Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-Inland New Hanover-Coastal New Hanover-
Inland Brunswick-Coastal Brunswick-
Including the cities of Burgaw, Surf City, Wilmington, Masonboro,
Myrtle Grove, Ogden, Carolina Beach, Seagate, Boiling Spring Lakes,
Leland, Shallotte, Oak Island, Long Beach, Southport,
and Sunset Beach
419 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

                      Tonight      Sat          Sat Night    Sun

Cloud amount          Clear        Clear        MClear       PCldy
Precip chc (%)        0            0            0            0
Precip type           None         None         None         None
LAL                   1            1            1            1
Min/Max Temp          51           79           54           81
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     LGT/VAR      E  6         LGT/VAR      E  5
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00
Precip duration
Inversion             1800         59/0900      1800         63/0900
Dispersion            Very Poor                 Very Poor
Max/Min RH (%)        99           43           100          54
DSI                                2                         2
Haines Index          4            4            4            4
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)                4160                      3700
Transport wnd (mph)                SE  6                     E  9
Ventilation rate                   24960                     33300
ADI early             9 poor       24 Fair      13 Gen poor  42 Gen good
ADI late              1 Very poor  25 Fair      1 Very poor  41 Gen good
Max LVORI early       5            9            6            10
Max LVORI late        7            2            8            2

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Maximum RH
90 percent. East winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs
around 80. Minimum RH 62 percent. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers with isolated
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH 97 percent. Chance
of precipitation 50 percent. South winds 15 to 20 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers likely with isolated
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH 70 percent. Chance
of precipitation 60 percent. South winds 15 to 20 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers with
isolated thunderstorms. Cooler. Lows in the mid 50s. Maximum RH
91 percent. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. West winds 10 to
15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Minimum RH
54 percent. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Maximum RH
87 percent. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Minimum RH 46 percent.
Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 50. Maximum RH
82 percent. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH 44 percent. West
winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

NCZ087-096-099-211230-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-
Including the cities of Lumberton, Elizabethtown, Bladenboro,
Whiteville, Tabor City, Chadbourn, and Lake Waccamaw
419 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

                      Tonight      Sat          Sat Night    Sun

Cloud amount          Clear        Clear        MClear       PCldy
Precip chc (%)        0            0            0            0
Precip type           None         None         None         None
LAL                   1            1            1            1
Min/Max Temp          50           80           53           81
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     LGT/VAR      E  4         LGT/VAR      E  4
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00
Precip duration
Inversion             1800         57/0900      1800         61/0900
Dispersion            Very Poor                 Very Poor
Max/Min RH (%)        100          37           99           53
DSI                                2                         2
Haines Index          4            4            4            4
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)                4220                      3840
Transport wnd (mph)                SE  6                     E  6
Ventilation rate                   25320                     23040
ADI early             11 poor      21 Fair      14 Gen poor  41 Gen good
ADI late              1 Very poor  24 Fair      1 Very poor  39 Fair
Max LVORI early       6            10           6            10
Max LVORI late        8            2            8            2

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Maximum RH
94 percent. East winds around 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the lower 80s. Minimum RH 61 percent. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers with isolated
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH 99 percent. Chance of
precipitation 50 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers likely with isolated
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 65 percent. Chance
of precipitation 60 percent. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers with
isolated thunderstorms. Cooler. Lows in the lower 50s. Maximum RH
90 percent. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. West winds 5 to
10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Cooler. Highs in the mid 60s. Minimum RH
50 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Maximum RH
88 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Minimum RH 45 percent.
Northwest winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Maximum RH
82 percent. Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny, warmer. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH
41 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

SCZ053>056-211230-
Inland Horry-Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-Coastal Georgetown-
Including the cities of Conway, Red Hill, Myrtle Beach, Socastee,
North Myrtle Beach, Garden City, Little River, Andrews, Georgetown,
and Murrells Inlet
419 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

                      Tonight      Sat          Sat Night    Sun

Cloud amount          Clear        Clear        MClear       PCldy
Precip chc (%)        0            0            0            0
Precip type           None         None         None         None
LAL                   1            1            1            1
Min/Max Temp          51           80           56           81
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      E  3         NE  3
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     LGT/VAR      E  7         LGT/VAR      E  7
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00
Precip duration
Inversion             1800         60/0900      1800         65/0900
Dispersion            Very Poor                 Very Poor
Max/Min RH (%)        99           44           99           57
DSI                                2                         2
Haines Index          5            4            4            3
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)                4230                      3810
Transport wnd (mph)                SE  7                     E 13
Ventilation rate                   29610                     49530
ADI early             9 poor       24 Fair      18 Gen poor  52 Gen good
ADI late              1 Very poor  29 Fair      2 Very poor  51 Gen good
Max LVORI early       6            8            5            8
Max LVORI late        7            2            7            2

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH
92 percent. East winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
around 80. Minimum RH 68 percent. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with showers likely with isolated
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH 99 percent. Chance
of precipitation 60 percent. South winds 15 to 20 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers with isolated
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 67 percent. Chance
of precipitation 50 percent. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers with
isolated thunderstorms. Cooler. Lows in the mid 50s. Maximum RH
88 percent. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. West winds 10 to
15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Cooler. Highs in the mid 60s. Minimum RH
52 percent. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Maximum RH
86 percent. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Minimum RH 48 percent.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 50. Maximum RH
80 percent. West winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH 44 percent. West
winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

SCZ024-032-033-039-211230-
Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-
Including the cities of Dillon, Florence, Marion, Mullins,
and Kingstree
419 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

                      Tonight      Sat          Sat Night    Sun

Cloud amount          Clear        MClear       MClear       PCldy
Precip chc (%)        0            0            0            0
Precip type           None         None         None         None
LAL                   1            1            1            1
Min/Max Temp          50           81           53           82
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     LGT/VAR      E  5         LGT/VAR      E  6
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00
Precip duration
Inversion             1800         57/0900      1800         62/0900
Dispersion            Very Poor                 Very Poor
Max/Min RH (%)        99           38           100          54
DSI                                2                         2
Haines Index          5            4            4            3
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)                4260                      3930
Transport wnd (mph)                SE  7                     E 10
Ventilation rate                   29820                     39300
ADI early             10 poor      20 Gen poor  18 Gen poor  45 Gen good
ADI late              1 Very poor  26 Fair      1 Very poor  44 Gen good
Max LVORI early       6            10           5            10
Max LVORI late        7            2            8            1

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Maximum RH
94 percent. East winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
around 80. Minimum RH 65 percent. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with showers likely with isolated
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH 100 percent. Chance
of precipitation 60 percent. South winds around 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers with isolated
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 63 percent. Chance
of precipitation 50 percent. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers with
isolated thunderstorms. Cooler. Lows in the lower 50s. Maximum RH
88 percent. Chance of precipitation 20 percent. West winds 5 to
10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Cooler. Highs in the mid 60s. Minimum RH
48 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Maximum RH
87 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. Minimum RH 45 percent.
Northwest winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Maximum RH
83 percent. Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH 40 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

SCZ017-023-211230-
Marlboro-Darlington-
Including the cities of Bennettsville, McColl, Hartsville,
Darlington, and North Hartsville
419 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

                      Tonight      Sat          Sat Night    Sun

Cloud amount          Clear        MClear       MClear       PCldy
Precip chc (%)        0            0            0            0
Precip type           None         None         None         None
LAL                   1            1            1            1
Min/Max Temp          49           81           53           81
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     LGT/VAR      E  4         LGT/VAR      E  5
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00
Precip duration
Inversion             1800         56/0900      1800         59/0900
Dispersion            Very Poor                 Very Poor
Max/Min RH (%)        99           36           98           51
DSI                                2                         2
Haines Index          5            4            4            3
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)                4250                      3940
Transport wnd (mph)                SE  6                     E  6
Ventilation rate                   25500                     23640
ADI early             6 Very poor  16 Gen poor  14 Gen poor  37 Fair
ADI late              1 Very poor  22 Fair      1 Very poor  33 Fair
Max LVORI early       4            9            5            10
Max LVORI late        7            2            8            2

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Maximum RH
94 percent. East winds around 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
around 80. Minimum RH 65 percent. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with showers likely with isolated
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH 100 percent. Chance
of precipitation 70 percent. Southeast winds around 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers with isolated
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH 62 percent. Chance
of precipitation 50 percent. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers with
isolated thunderstorms. Cooler. Lows in the upper 40s. Maximum RH
94 percent. Chance of precipitation 20 percent. West winds 5 to
10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Cooler. Highs in the mid 60s. Minimum RH
46 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Maximum RH
89 percent. Northwest winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Minimum RH 43 percent.
Northwest winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Maximum RH
84 percent. Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny, warmer. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH
39 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
Temperatures below normal.  Precipitation near normal.

$$


     SC USERS                               NC USERS
===================================================================
VENTILATION RATE         BURN CATEGORY  VENTILATION RATE
===================================================================
    0 TO 17249                 1             0 TO 33499
17250 TO 34499                 2         33500 TO 44999
34500 TO 51749                 3         45000 TO 59999
51750 TO 68999                 4         60000 TO 111999
69000 OR GREATER               5        112000 OR GREATER

     SC USERS                               NC USERS
===================================================================
FORECAST SURFACE WIND    DISPERSION    FORECAST SURFACE WIND
===================================================================
                         STAGNANT       NEAR CALM
CALM                     VERY POOR      2 TO 4 MPH
2 TO 5 MPH                 POOR         5 TO 8 MPH
6 TO 8 MPH                 FAIR         9 TO 12 MPH
9 TO 13 MPH                GOOD         GREATER THAN 12 MPH
14 MPH OR MORE           EXCELLENT

ADI is Atmospheric Dispersion Index by LAVDAS.
LVORI is Low Visibility Occurrence Risk Index.

$$

dch



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