Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FNUS52 KILM 160756
FWFILM

Fire Weather Planning Forecast
for Northeast South Carolina and Southeast North Carolina
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
356 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A strong cold front will cross the area late this morning through
this afternoon, accompanied by a few showers and a sudden wind shift
to the north. Drier and much cooler air will build into the area
behind the front tonight and Tuesday, as Canadian high pressure
builds in. Dry weather and seasonable conditions will prevail
through the week, with a warming trend developing by the weekend.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain will become
unfavorable as the cold front arrives today:
Type 1-D, direction north, speed 30 mph at 1600 feet.

Fog potential for tonight...none.

NCZ105>110-170000-
Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-Inland New Hanover-Coastal New Hanover-
Inland Brunswick-Coastal Brunswick-
Including the cities of Burgaw, Surf City, Wilmington, Masonboro,
Myrtle Grove, Ogden, Carolina Beach, Seagate, Boiling Spring Lakes,
Leland, Shallotte, Oak Island, Long Beach, Southport,
and Sunset Beach
356 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Tue

Cloud amount          MCldy        PCldy        MClear
Precip chc (%)        50           40           0
Precip type           Tstms        Showers      None
LAL                   2            1            1
Min/Max Temp          74           46           68
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    W  4         NE  9 G20    NE 11 G23
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     N  7         NE 11 G20    NE 10 G22
Precip amount         0.12         0.07         0.00
Precip duration       2            1
Inversion             72/0900      0100         52/0900
Dispersion                         Excellent
Max/Min RH (%)        71           83           38
DSI                   1                         2
Haines Index          4            2            4
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)   3030                      3950
Transport wnd (mph)   N 17                      NE 16
Ventilation rate      51510                     63200
ADI early             13 Gen poor  58 Gen good  52 Gen good
ADI late              55 Gen good  11 poor      59 Gen good
Max LVORI early       9            3            4
Max LVORI late        3            4            1

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Maximum RH
88 percent. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH 51 percent.
Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Maximum RH
100 percent. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH 56 percent.
Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Maximum RH
96 percent. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 47 percent.
Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Maximum RH
94 percent. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH
51 percent. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. Maximum RH
89 percent. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH
53 percent. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

NCZ096-099-170000-
Bladen-Columbus-
Including the cities of Elizabethtown, Bladenboro, Whiteville,
Tabor City, Chadbourn, and Lake Waccamaw
356 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Tue

Cloud amount          MCldy        PCldy        Clear
Precip chc (%)        60           30           0
Precip type           Tstms        Showers      None
LAL                   2            1            1
Min/Max Temp          71           46           67
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    W  5         NE  8        NE  9
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     N  9         NE  8        NE  9
Precip amount         0.14         0.07         0.00
Precip duration       2            1
Inversion             70/0900      2200         52/1000
Dispersion                         Good
Max/Min RH (%)        71           82           35
DSI                   1                         2
Haines Index          3            3            4
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)   3100                      3990
Transport wnd (mph)   N 23                      NE 17
Ventilation rate      71300                     67830
ADI early             15 Gen poor  47 Gen good  53 Gen good
ADI late              56 Gen good  7 poor       64 Good
Max LVORI early       10           4            4
Max LVORI late        3            4            1

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Maximum RH 87 percent.
Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH 48 percent.
Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Maximum RH
100 percent. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH 51 percent.
North winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Maximum RH
98 percent. North winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 44 percent.
North winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Maximum RH
98 percent. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 47 percent.
Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Maximum RH
93 percent. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 50 percent.
Northeast winds around 5 mph.

$$

NCZ087-170000-
Robeson-
Including the city of Lumberton
356 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Tue

Cloud amount          MCldy        MClear       Clear
Precip chc (%)        60           30           0
Precip type           Tstms        Showers      None
LAL                   2            1            1
Min/Max Temp          69           44           67
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    W  6         NE  7        NE  9
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     N 11         NE  7        NE 10
Precip amount         0.16         0.07         0.00
Precip duration       3            0
Inversion             69/0900      2200         52/1000
Dispersion                         Good
Max/Min RH (%)        65           83           32
DSI                   1                         2
Haines Index          2            4            4
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)   2440                      4080
Transport wnd (mph)   N 25                      NE 17
Ventilation rate      61000                     69360
ADI early             20 Gen poor  37 Fair      52 Gen good
ADI late              51 Gen good  7 poor       68 Good
Max LVORI early       9            4            4
Max LVORI late        3            4            1

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Maximum RH
90 percent. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH 42 percent.
Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Maximum RH
98 percent. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH 45 percent.
North winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 50. Maximum RH
100 percent. North winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 42 percent.
North winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Maximum RH
100 percent. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH
44 percent. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Maximum RH
95 percent. East winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 48 percent.
Northeast winds around 5 mph.

$$

SCZ053>056-170000-
Inland Horry-Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-Coastal Georgetown-
Including the cities of Conway, Red Hill, Myrtle Beach, Socastee,
North Myrtle Beach, Garden City, Little River, Andrews, Georgetown,
and Murrells Inlet
356 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Tue

Cloud amount          MCldy        PCldy        MClear
Precip chc (%)        50           40           0
Precip type           Tstms        Showers      None
LAL                   2            1            1
Min/Max Temp          77           47           68
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    W  4         NE 11 G20    NE 12 G22
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     N  8         NE 11 G20    NE 11 G22
Precip amount         0.13         0.06         0.00
Precip duration       2            1
Inversion             72/0900      0100         53/0900
Dispersion                         Excellent
Max/Min RH (%)        69           79           39
DSI                   1                         2
Haines Index          4            2            4
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)   3290                      3690
Transport wnd (mph)   N 18                      NE 17
Ventilation rate      59220                     62730
ADI early             13 Gen poor  58 Gen good  59 Gen good
ADI late              55 Gen good  15 Gen poor  59 Gen good
Max LVORI early       9            3            3
Max LVORI late        3            3            1

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Maximum RH
86 percent. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH 53 percent.
Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Maximum RH
98 percent. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH 55 percent.
Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Maximum RH
93 percent. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 48 percent.
Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Maximum RH
91 percent. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH
53 percent. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Maximum RH
89 percent. East winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH
54 percent. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

SCZ024-032-033-039-170000-
Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-
Including the cities of Dillon, Florence, Marion, Mullins,
and Kingstree
356 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Tue

Cloud amount          MCldy        PCldy        Clear
Precip chc (%)        60           30           0
Precip type           Tstms        Showers      None
LAL                   2            1            1
Min/Max Temp          76           46           68
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    W  5         NE  9        NE 10
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     N 11         NE  8        NE 10
Precip amount         0.14         0.06         0.00
Precip duration       2            1
Inversion             71/0900      2200         52/1000
Dispersion                         Good
Max/Min RH (%)        63           80           34
DSI                   1                         2
Haines Index          3            3            4
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)   3270                      3990
Transport wnd (mph)   N 23                      NE 17
Ventilation rate      75210                     67830
ADI early             16 Gen poor  48 Gen good  55 Gen good
ADI late              54 Gen good  7 poor       63 Good
Max LVORI early       9            3            4
Max LVORI late        3            3            1

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Maximum RH 86 percent.
Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH 46 percent.
Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Maximum RH
96 percent. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH 48 percent.
Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Maximum RH
97 percent. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 43 percent.
Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Maximum RH
98 percent. East winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH
46 percent. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Maximum RH
92 percent. East winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH
50 percent. Northeast winds around 5 mph.

$$

SCZ017-023-170000-
Marlboro-Darlington-
Including the cities of Bennettsville, McColl, Hartsville,
Darlington, and North Hartsville
356 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Tue

Cloud amount          MCldy        MClear       Clear
Precip chc (%)        60           30           0
Precip type           Tstms        Showers      None
LAL                   2            1            1
Min/Max Temp          73           44           68
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    W  6         NE  7        NE  8
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     N 11         NE  7        NE  9
Precip amount         0.15         0.06         0.00
Precip duration       3            0
Inversion             69/0900      2200         52/1000
Dispersion                         Good
Max/Min RH (%)        58           83           31
DSI                   1                         2
Haines Index          2            4            4
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)   2960                      4170
Transport wnd (mph)   N 23                      NE 15
Ventilation rate      68080                     62550
ADI early             32 Fair      37 Fair      48 Gen good
ADI late              52 Gen good  6 Very poor  60 Gen good
Max LVORI early       9            4            4
Max LVORI late        2            3            1

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Maximum RH
86 percent. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH 37 percent.
Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Maximum RH
93 percent. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH 43 percent.
North winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 50. Maximum RH
99 percent. North winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 41 percent.
Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Maximum RH
98 percent. East winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH
42 percent. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Maximum RH
94 percent. East winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 47 percent.
Northeast winds around 5 mph.

$$

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
Temperatures above normal.  Precipitation above normal.

$$


     SC USERS                               NC USERS
===================================================================
VENTILATION RATE         BURN CATEGORY  VENTILATION RATE
===================================================================
    0 TO 17249                 1             0 TO 33499
17250 TO 34499                 2         33500 TO 44999
34500 TO 51749                 3         45000 TO 59999
51750 TO 68999                 4         60000 TO 111999
69000 OR GREATER               5        112000 OR GREATER

     SC USERS                               NC USERS
===================================================================
FORECAST SURFACE WIND    DISPERSION    FORECAST SURFACE WIND
===================================================================
                         STAGNANT       NEAR CALM
CALM                     VERY POOR      2 TO 4 MPH
2 TO 5 MPH                 POOR         5 TO 8 MPH
6 TO 8 MPH                 FAIR         9 TO 12 MPH
9 TO 13 MPH                GOOD         GREATER THAN 12 MPH
14 MPH OR MORE           EXCELLENT

ADI is Atmospheric Dispersion Index by LAVDAS.
LVORI is Low Visibility Occurrence Risk Index.

$$

TRA



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