Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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163
FNUS52 KILM 241944
FWFILM

Fire Weather Planning Forecast
for Northeast South Carolina and Southeast North Carolina
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
344 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front will approach from the north and should slip into the
area later Tuesday night and on Wednesday before stalling and then
dissipating by Thursday. This will produce a focal point for the
development of showers and thunderstorms with potentially heavy
rain. After a brief drier and warmer period Thursday and Friday, the
arrival of a stronger cold front this weekend will bring numerous
thunderstorms back into the eastern Carolinas.

Fog potential for tonight...None to Low.

NCZ105>110-251145-
Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-Inland New Hanover-Coastal New Hanover-
Inland Brunswick-Coastal Brunswick-
Including the cities of Burgaw, Surf City, Wilmington, Masonboro,
Myrtle Grove, Ogden, Carolina Beach, Seagate, Boiling Spring Lakes,
Leland, Shallotte, Oak Island, Long Beach, Southport,
and Sunset Beach
344 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud amount          PCldy        PCldy        PCldy        MCldy
Precip chc (%)        40           40           50           60
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
LAL                   3            3            3            4
Min/Max Temp          75           92           73           87
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    SW  8        SW  3        SW  5        NE  3
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     SW  6        S  5         LGT/VAR      E  5
Precip amount         0.09         0.21         0.21         0.50
Precip duration       2            2            2            8
Inversion             2000         80/0900      2000         78/0900
Dispersion            Fair                      Very Poor
Max/Min RH (%)        97           57           100          64
DSI                                2                         2
Haines Index          3            3            4            3
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)                5260                      4840
Transport wnd (mph)                SW  7                     E  8
Ventilation rate                   36820                     38720
ADI early             34 Fair      27 Fair      27 Fair      24 Fair
ADI late              9 poor       28 Fair      2 Very poor  24 Fair
Max LVORI early       4            8            6            10
Max LVORI late        7            3            10           3

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 99 percent.
East winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 62 percent. East
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s. Maximum RH
98 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Minimum RH 61 percent.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Maximum RH 94 percent.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 66 percent. Chance of
precipitation 60 percent. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms
likely. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 93 percent. Chance of
precipitation 60 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 61 percent.
Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 97 percent.
East winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 59 percent. East
winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

NCZ087-096-099-251145-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-
Including the cities of Lumberton, Elizabethtown, Bladenboro,
Whiteville, Tabor City, Chadbourn, and Lake Waccamaw
344 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud amount          PCldy        PCldy        PCldy        PCldy
Precip chc (%)        40           40           50           60
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
LAL                   3            3            3            4
Min/Max Temp          73           92           73           87
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    SW  7        SW  3        S  3         NE  4
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     SW  5        S  3         LGT/VAR      E  6
Precip amount         0.07         0.20         0.22         0.39
Precip duration       2            2            2            2
Inversion             2000         78/0900      2000         77/0900
Dispersion            Fair                      Very Poor
Max/Min RH (%)        100          53           100          61
DSI                                2                         2
Haines Index          3            3            3            3
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)                5790                      4930
Transport wnd (mph)                SW  6                     E  7
Ventilation rate                   34740                     34510
ADI early             36 Fair      23 Fair      18 Gen poor  33 Fair
ADI late              9 poor       22 Fair      1 Very poor  34 Fair
Max LVORI early       4            10           7            10
Max LVORI late        9            3            10           3

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 100 percent.
East winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs around 90. Minimum RH 58 percent. East winds
around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s. Maximum RH
100 percent. South winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Minimum RH 55 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Maximum RH 95 percent.
Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 64 percent. Chance of
precipitation 60 percent. Northwest winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 95 percent.
Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 59 percent.
Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 98 percent.
East winds around 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 55 percent. East
winds around 5 mph.

$$

SCZ053>056-251145-
Inland Horry-Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-Coastal Georgetown-
Including the cities of Conway, Red Hill, Myrtle Beach, Socastee,
North Myrtle Beach, Garden City, Little River, Andrews, Georgetown,
and Murrells Inlet
344 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud amount          PCldy        PCldy        PCldy        MCldy
Precip chc (%)        40           50           40           60
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
LAL                   3            3            3            4
Min/Max Temp          74           91           73           87
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    SW  7        SW  4        SW  5        LGT/VAR
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     SW  5        S  5         SW  3        SE  4
Precip amount         0.08         0.20         0.16         0.59
Precip duration       2            2            2            8
Inversion             2000         80/0900      2000         78/0900
Dispersion            Fair                      Poor
Max/Min RH (%)        99           57           100          66
DSI                                2                         2
Haines Index          3            3            4            3
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)                5020                      4550
Transport wnd (mph)                SW  3                     E  5
Ventilation rate                   15060                     22750
ADI early             31 Fair      11 poor      15 Gen poor  10 poor
ADI late              9 poor       16 Gen poor  3 Very poor  16 Gen poor
Max LVORI early       4            8            6            10
Max LVORI late        9            3            10           3

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 100 percent.
Southeast winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 65 percent.
Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s. Maximum RH
99 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Minimum RH 61 percent.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Maximum RH 94 percent.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 65 percent. Chance of
precipitation 60 percent. West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms
likely. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 94 percent. Chance of
precipitation 60 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 65 percent.
Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 96 percent.
East winds around 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 60 percent. East
winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

SCZ032-033-039-251145-
Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-
Including the cities of Florence, Marion, Mullins, and Kingstree
344 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud amount          PCldy        PCldy        PCldy        MCldy
Precip chc (%)        40           40           40           60
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
LAL                   3            3            3            4
Min/Max Temp          74           91           73           87
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    SW  7        SW  3        S  4         E  3
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     SW  5        S  3         LGT/VAR      E  5
Precip amount         0.08         0.20         0.15         0.56
Precip duration       2            2            2            8
Inversion             2000         79/0900      2000         77/0900
Dispersion            Fair                      Very Poor
Max/Min RH (%)        99           55           100          65
DSI                                2                         2
Haines Index          3            3            4            3
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)                5030                      4880
Transport wnd (mph)                SW  3                     E  5
Ventilation rate                   15090                     24400
ADI early             31 Fair      8 poor       14 Gen poor  15 Gen poor
ADI late              7 poor       15 Gen poor  2 Very poor  15 Gen poor
Max LVORI early       4            9            6            10
Max LVORI late        9            3            10           3

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 100 percent.
Southeast winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 62 percent.
Southeast winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s. Maximum RH
99 percent. South winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Minimum RH 56 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Maximum RH 94 percent.
Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 64 percent. Chance of
precipitation 60 percent. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 95 percent.
Southeast winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 63 percent.
Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 97 percent.
East winds around 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 59 percent. East
winds around 5 mph.

$$

SCZ017-023-024-251145-
Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-
Including the cities of Bennettsville, McColl, Hartsville,
Darlington, North Hartsville, and Dillon
344 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud amount          PCldy        PCldy        PCldy        MCldy
Precip chc (%)        40           40           50           50
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
LAL                   3            3            3            3
Min/Max Temp          73           92           73           88
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    SW  8        SW  3        S  4         NE  5
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     SW  5        S  3         LGT/VAR      E  6
Precip amount         0.07         0.19         0.20         0.40
Precip duration       2            2            2            2
Inversion             2000         78/0900      2000         77/0900
Dispersion            Fair                      Very Poor
Max/Min RH (%)        99           53           100          61
DSI                                2                         2
Haines Index          3            3            3            2
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)                5860                      4950
Transport wnd (mph)                SW  5                     E  7
Ventilation rate                   29300                     34650
ADI early             34 Fair      15 Gen poor  15 Gen poor  33 Fair
ADI late              6 Very poor  17 Gen poor  1 Very poor  36 Fair
Max LVORI early       4            9            6            10
Max LVORI late        9            2            10           3

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 100 percent.
Southeast winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs around 90. Minimum RH 58 percent. Southeast
winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s. Maximum RH
100 percent. South winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Minimum RH 53 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Maximum RH 93 percent.
Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 63 percent. Chance of
precipitation 60 percent. Northwest winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 94 percent.
East winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 58 percent.
Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 97 percent.
East winds around 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 55 percent. East
winds around 5 mph.

$$

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
Temperatures near normal.  Precipitation above normal.

$$


     SC USERS                               NC USERS
===================================================================
VENTILATION RATE         BURN CATEGORY  VENTILATION RATE
===================================================================
    0 TO 17249                 1             0 TO 33499
17250 TO 34499                 2         33500 TO 44999
34500 TO 51749                 3         45000 TO 59999
51750 TO 68999                 4         60000 TO 111999
69000 OR GREATER               5        112000 OR GREATER

     SC USERS                               NC USERS
===================================================================
FORECAST SURFACE WIND    DISPERSION    FORECAST SURFACE WIND
===================================================================
                         STAGNANT       NEAR CALM
CALM                     VERY POOR      2 TO 4 MPH
2 TO 5 MPH                 POOR         5 TO 8 MPH
6 TO 8 MPH                 FAIR         9 TO 12 MPH
9 TO 13 MPH                GOOD         GREATER THAN 12 MPH
14 MPH OR MORE           EXCELLENT

ADI is Atmospheric Dispersion Index by LAVDAS.
LVORI is Low Visibility Occurrence Risk Index.

$$

RGZ



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