Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FNUS52 KILM 032019
FWFILM

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST
FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
319 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND PUSH INTO THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT AND THEN STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OFFSHORE
DURING THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT. COLD AND
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE RISK OF MORE PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT...MODERATE.

NCZ105>110-041230-
INLAND PENDER-COASTAL PENDER-INLAND NEW HANOVER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-
INLAND BRUNSWICK-COASTAL BRUNSWICK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURGAW...SURF CITY...TOPSAIL BEACH...
WILMINGTON...CAROLINA BEACH...WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH...LELAND...
BOLIVIA...SHALLOTTE...OCEAN ISLE BEACH...HOLDEN BEACH...OAK ISLAND...
SOUTHPORT
319 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI

CLOUD AMOUNT          CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLEAR
PRECIP CHC (%)        100          100          80           0
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      RAIN         NONE
LAL                   2            1            1            1
MIN/MAX TEMP          59           62           38           50
WND20FT2MIN/EARLY(MPH)S 13 G22     W  8         N  7         N 16 G23
WND20FT2MIN/LATE(MPH) S 11         N  5         N 12 G21     N 11
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.86         0.75         0.61         0.00
PRECIP DURATION       11           12           8
INVERSION             NONE         61/0600      NONE         NONE
MAX/MIN RH (%)        95           82           94           42
DSI                                1                         2
HAINES INDEX          3            2            2            4
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)                1690                      4400
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 12                     N 17
VENTILATION RATE                   20280                     74800
ADI EARLY             45 GEN GOOD  30 FAIR      13 GEN POOR  69 GOOD
ADI LATE              13 GEN POOR  17 GEN POOR  26 FAIR      53 GEN GOOD
MAX LVORI EARLY       5            4            5            3
MAX LVORI LATE        5            5            4            1

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 30. MAXIMUM RH 82 PERCENT. NORTH
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. MINIMUM RH
45 PERCENT. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S. MAXIMUM RH 94 PERCENT. NORTH WINDS 15 TO
20 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.
MINIMUM RH 64 PERCENT. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. NORTH WINDS 15 TO
20 MPH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. MAXIMUM RH 89 PERCENT. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. MINIMUM RH 56 PERCENT.
WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. MAXIMUM RH 95 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 50. MINIMUM RH 57 PERCENT.
WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. MAXIMUM RH
86 PERCENT. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. MINIMUM RH
60 PERCENT. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.

$$

NCZ096-099-041230-
BLADEN-COLUMBUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELIZABETHTOWN...WHITEVILLE
319 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI

CLOUD AMOUNT          CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLEAR
PRECIP CHC (%)        100          100          70           0
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      RAIN         NONE
LAL                   2            1            1            1
MIN/MAX TEMP          56           61           37           49
WND20FT2MIN/EARLY(MPH)S 14 G25     W  6         N 10         N 15
WND20FT2MIN/LATE(MPH) SW 10        NW  5        N 13         N 12
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.96         0.74         0.48         0.00
PRECIP DURATION       12           12           6
INVERSION             NONE         60/0600      NONE         NONE
MAX/MIN RH (%)        94           83           90           41
DSI                                1                         2
HAINES INDEX          3            2            2            4
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)                1830                      4560
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                N  8                      N 16
VENTILATION RATE                   14640                     72960
ADI EARLY             52 GEN GOOD  17 GEN POOR  17 GEN POOR  62 GOOD
ADI LATE              12 POOR      24 FAIR      28 FAIR      49 GEN GOOD
MAX LVORI EARLY       5            5            4            3
MAX LVORI LATE        5            4            4            1

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. MAXIMUM RH 82 PERCENT.
NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. MINIMUM RH
40 PERCENT. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S. MAXIMUM RH 90 PERCENT. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S. MINIMUM RH 60 PERCENT. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 30S. MAXIMUM RH 88 PERCENT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. MINIMUM RH 54 PERCENT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. MAXIMUM RH 94 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. MINIMUM RH
56 PERCENT. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. MAXIMUM RH
87 PERCENT. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. MINIMUM RH
58 PERCENT. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

$$

NCZ087-041230-
ROBESON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LUMBERTON
319 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI

CLOUD AMOUNT          CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLEAR
PRECIP CHC (%)        100          100          60           0
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      RAIN         NONE
LAL                   2            1            1            1
MIN/MAX TEMP          55           59           37           50
WND20FT2MIN/EARLY(MPH)S 14 G25     W  5         N 11         N 15
WND20FT2MIN/LATE(MPH) SW 10        NW  6        N 14         N 11
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.89         0.83         0.38         0.00
PRECIP DURATION       12           12           6
INVERSION             NONE         58/0600      NONE         NONE
MAX/MIN RH (%)        94           80           88           39
DSI                                1                         2
HAINES INDEX          3            2            2            4
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)                1890                      5000
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW  6                     N 16
VENTILATION RATE                   11340                     80000
ADI EARLY             48 GEN GOOD  19 GEN POOR  23 FAIR      63 GOOD
ADI LATE              12 POOR      29 FAIR      30 FAIR      55 GEN GOOD
MAX LVORI EARLY       4            5            4            3
MAX LVORI LATE        5            4            3            1

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. MAXIMUM RH 83 PERCENT.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. MINIMUM RH
38 PERCENT. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S. MAXIMUM RH 84 PERCENT. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S. MINIMUM RH 58 PERCENT. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 30S. MAXIMUM RH 86 PERCENT. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. MINIMUM RH 54 PERCENT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. MAXIMUM RH 93 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. MINIMUM RH
53 PERCENT. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. MAXIMUM RH
85 PERCENT. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. MINIMUM RH
58 PERCENT. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

$$

SCZ053>056-041230-
INLAND HORRY-COASTAL HORRY-INLAND GEORGETOWN-COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CONWAY...MYRTLE BEACH...
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH...GARDEN CITY...ANDREWS...GEORGETOWN...
MURRELLS INLET
319 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI

CLOUD AMOUNT          CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLEAR
PRECIP CHC (%)        100          100          70           0
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      RAIN         NONE
LAL                   2            1            1            1
MIN/MAX TEMP          57           60           38           51
WND20FT2MIN/EARLY(MPH)S 14 G24     W  7         N  9         N 16 G22
WND20FT2MIN/LATE(MPH) SW 10        NW  7        N 13 G21     N 11
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.80         0.69         0.37         0.00
PRECIP DURATION       11           12           6
INVERSION             NONE         59/0600      NONE         NONE
MAX/MIN RH (%)        97           83           96           40
DSI                                1                         2
HAINES INDEX          3            2            2            4
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)                1570                      4450
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW  9                     N 17
VENTILATION RATE                   14130                     75650
ADI EARLY             46 GEN GOOD  21 FAIR      17 GEN POOR  65 GOOD
ADI LATE              12 POOR      20 GEN POOR  31 FAIR      54 GEN GOOD
MAX LVORI EARLY       5            5            5            3
MAX LVORI LATE        5            5            4            1

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 30. MAXIMUM RH 82 PERCENT.
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. MINIMUM RH
46 PERCENT. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. MAXIMUM RH 93 PERCENT. NORTH WINDS 15 TO
20 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S. MINIMUM RH 64 PERCENT. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. MAXIMUM RH 89 PERCENT. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. MINIMUM RH 58 PERCENT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S. MAXIMUM RH 91 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO
20 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. MINIMUM RH
53 PERCENT. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. MAXIMUM RH
85 PERCENT. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. MINIMUM RH
54 PERCENT. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.

$$

SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-041230-
MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-WILLIAMSBURG-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BENNETTSVILLE...DARLINGTON...DILLON...
FLORENCE...MARION...KINGSTREE
319 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI

CLOUD AMOUNT          CLOUDY       CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLEAR
PRECIP CHC (%)        100          100          60           0
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        SHOWERS      RAIN         NONE
LAL                   2            1            1            1
MIN/MAX TEMP          54           59           37           52
WND20FT2MIN/EARLY(MPH)S 13 G25     W  6         N  8         N 15 G20
WND20FT2MIN/LATE(MPH) SW  8        NW  5        N 14         N 11
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.84         0.71         0.32         0.00
PRECIP DURATION       12           12           6
INVERSION             NONE         57/0600      NONE         NONE
MAX/MIN RH (%)        93           76           87           34
DSI                                1                         2
HAINES INDEX          3            2            2            4
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)                1900                      5070
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW  6                     N 17
VENTILATION RATE                   11400                     86190
ADI EARLY             46 GEN GOOD  19 GEN POOR  16 GEN POOR  58 GEN GOOD
ADI LATE              10 POOR      21 FAIR      24 FAIR      58 GEN GOOD
MAX LVORI EARLY       5            5            4            3
MAX LVORI LATE        5            4            3            1

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. MAXIMUM RH
82 PERCENT. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. MINIMUM RH
41 PERCENT. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S. MAXIMUM RH 90 PERCENT. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S. MINIMUM RH 58 PERCENT. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 30S. MAXIMUM RH 89 PERCENT. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. MINIMUM RH 55 PERCENT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. MAXIMUM RH 90 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 50. MINIMUM RH 50 PERCENT.
WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. MAXIMUM RH
83 PERCENT. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. MINIMUM RH
53 PERCENT. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

$$

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.  PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

$$


     SC USERS                               NC USERS
===================================================================
VENTILATION RATE         BURN CATEGORY  VENTILATION RATE
===================================================================
    0 TO 17249                 1             0 TO 33499
17250 TO 34499                 2         33500 TO 44999
34500 TO 51749                 3         45000 TO 59999
51750 TO 68999                 4         60000 TO 111999
69000 OR GREATER               5        112000 OR GREATER

     SC USERS                               NC USERS
===================================================================
FORECAST SURFACE WIND    DISPERSION    FORECAST SURFACE WIND
===================================================================
                         STAGNANT       NEAR CALM
CALM                     VERY POOR      2 TO 4 MPH
2 TO 5 MPH                 POOR         5 TO 8 MPH
6 TO 8 MPH                 FAIR         9 TO 12 MPH
9 TO 13 MPH                GOOD         GREATER THAN 12 MPH
14 MPH OR MORE           EXCELLENT

ADI IS ATMOSPHERIC DISPERSION INDEX BY LAVDAS.
LVORI IS LOW VISIBILITY OCCURRENCE RISK INDEX.

$$

5



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