Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FNUS72 KILM 191345
FWSILM

SPOT FORECAST FOR PEA RIDGE...NC STATE PARK LURI
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
845 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EST ON DECEMBER 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NO RAINFALL
UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND DOWN INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL WEDGE DOWN THE
COAST DURING THE WEEKEND...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY
SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
ON WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.

FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT...LOW.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTH 5 TO
                    6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
                    AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
                    LATE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 1200-2500 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING.
MAX ADI.............21.
MAX LVORI...........6.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (459-16790 MPH-FT).

TIME (EST)          1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).............2      5      16
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................53     54     52
RH..................36     35     41
20 FT WIND..........N 4    N 3    N 3
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........2200   2500   1200
TRANSPORT WIND......NE 8   N 6    N 5
LVORI...............2      2      2
ADI.................21     16     7
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...17     15     6

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 35.
MAX HUMIDITY........82 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS.
MAX ADI.............2.
MAX LVORI...........4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (804 MPH-FT).

TIME (EST)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............27     44     58     63     69     74
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................46     40     38     39     38     38
RH..................54     75     78     75     73     74
20 FT WIND..........N 2    NE 2   NE 2   NE 2   NE 2   NE 2
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      5      5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........300    300    300    300    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND......NE 3   NE 3   NE 3   NE 3   NE 3   NE 3
LVORI...............2      4      4      3      3      3
ADI.................2      2      2      2      2      2
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...1      1      1      1      1      1

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48.
MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST 5
                    TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING
                    LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2200-2500 FT
                    AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
MAX ADI.............20.
MAX LVORI...........4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (919-20930 MPH-FT).

TIME (EST)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............91     100    100    100    98     93
WEATHER COV.........S CHC  DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE........RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN
TSTM COV............
TEMP................37     35     39     43     47     48
RH..................75     82     79     71     66     68
20 FT WIND..........NE 3   NE 4   NE 5   NE 5   NE 5   NE 4
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      10     10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........300    600    1500   2100   2400   2400
TRANSPORT WIND......NE 3   NE 7   NE 10  NE 10  NE 8   NE 7
LVORI...............4      4      3      3      3      3
ADI.................4      8      17     20     17     15
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...1      4      14     20     20     18

$$
FORECASTER...DIGIORGI
REQUESTED BY...BRANTLEY BOWEN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20141219.PEARI.01/ILM






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