Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FNUS72 KILM 211206
FWSILM

SPOT FORECAST FOR LITTLE ISLAND...TNC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
806 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1130 EDT ON AUGUST 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH BRUNSWICK COUNTY FROM
THE VERY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW THIS PASSAGE.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. SLIGHT COOLING
THIS WEEKEND WILL ARRIVE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.

WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.

FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT...NONE TO LOW.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO
                    6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING
                    AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4700-5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (0-28404 MPH-FT).

TIME (EDT)          11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).............37     42     44     44
WEATHER COV.........S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
TEMP................89     92     93     91
RH..................62     57     54     58
20 FT WIND..........S 2    S 4    S 5    S 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      10     10     15
MIX HGT (FT)........3500   4700   5500   5200
TRANSPORT WIND......W 6    W 5    W 5    SW 6
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...19     22     23     28

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MAX HUMIDITY........91 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-3700 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 0-300 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (0-22540 MPH-FT).

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............44     43     37     32     26     32
WEATHER COV.........S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............S CHC
TEMP................90     85     83     81     79     79
RH..................60     71     76     82     85     87
20 FT WIND..........S 5    S 5    S 4    S 3    S 2    SW 2
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     10     5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........3700   300    BLW100 300    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 6   S 7    S 6    S 3    S 2    SW 1
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...23     2      0      1      1      0

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95.
MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING WEST AROUND
                    5 MPH LATE...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
                    LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6100-7200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (0-37835 MPH-FT)...INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (69690 MPH-FT) LATE IN THE MORNING.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............39     45     48     51     54     54
WEATHER COV.........                            S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............                            S CHC  S CHC
TEMP................78     78     87     94     95     94
RH..................90     89     64     52     51     52
20 FT WIND..........W 2    W 2    W 2    NW 3   W 3    W 4
20 FT WIND GUST.....       5      5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........BLW100 300    5000   7200   6100   6700
TRANSPORT WIND......W 2    W 3    W 8    W 13   W 15   W 14
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...0      1      38     88     90     90

$$
FORECASTER...COLBY
REQUESTED BY...ANGIE CARL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140821.LITTL.01/ILM






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