Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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783
FNUS72 KILM 131337
FWSILM

SPOT FORECAST FOR SPARKLEBERRY LANDING...TNC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
837 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2017

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EST ON JANUARY 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AT 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
WARM AIR WILL SURGE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL LEAD TO A COOLDOWN OVER THE WEEKEND, THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES LIKELY
DO NOT RETURN UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.

FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT...LOW/MODERATE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........57 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING WEST AROUND
                    5 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
                    AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
                    LATE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2800 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 10 MPH.
MAX VENT RATE.......35420 MPH-FT.
MAX LVORI...........8.
MAX ADI.............39.

TIME (EST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........19  21  23  24  26  33  41  48  53
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............60  65  68  71  73  73  73  72  70
RH..............80  70  64  60  57  56  56  56  62
CHC PCPN (%)....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
20 FT WIND DIR..W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD..4   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   3
20 FT WIND GUST.5           10          5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 1.1 2.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 1.7
TRANS WND DIR...W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  N   N
TRANS WND SPD...8   9   9   10  10  9   9   8   7
HAINES INDEX....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VR MPH-FT/1000..1   1   9   20  35  31  21  14  8
STABILITY.......B   C   C   C   C   C   C   C   D
LVORI...........4   3   2   2   1   1   2   2   3
ADI.............4   4   11  25  39  35  24  16  8

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46.
MAX HUMIDITY........82 PERCENT.
MIN VENT RATE.......1150 MPH-FT.
MAX LVORI...........5.
MIN ADI.............3.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........57     71     74     77     78     75
WEATHER COV.....                            S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RAIN   RAIN
TSTM COV........
TEMP............66     61     58     55     52     50
RH..............68     78     80     74     69     69
CHC PCPN (%)....0      10     10     10     20     20
VR MPH-FT/1000..5      1      2      2      2      2
STABILITY.......E      E      E      D      D      D
LVORI...........4      5      3      3      3      3
ADI.............3      4      5      7      7      7

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 13 MPH.
MAX VENT RATE.......10810 MPH-FT.
MAX LVORI...........3.
MAX ADI.............12.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........71     70     70     70     70     71
WEATHER COV.....S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RAIN   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............48     47     48     51     53     51
RH..............70     73     74     72     71     74
CHC PCPN (%)....20     10     10     10     10     10
20 FT WIND......NE 5   NE 5   NE 4   N 4    N 4    N 4
20 FT WIND GUST.              5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....300    300    300    1100   1500   1500
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 13  NE 10  NE 9   N 7    N 7    N 6
HAINES INDEX....2      2      3      3      3      3
VR MPH-FT/1000..2      2      2      5      9      11
STABILITY.......D      D      D      D      D      D
LVORI...........3      3      3      3      3      2
ADI.............8      8      8      6      10     11

$$
FORECASTER...KREITNER
REQUESTED BY...ANGIE CARL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1700382.0/ILM
.EMAIL ACARL@TNC.ORG



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