Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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119
FNUS72 KILM 261257
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for Western, Caison, Wesley...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service WILMINGTON NC
857 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on June 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
Drier air and slightly cooler temperatures will begin spreading
across the area today as high pressure edges in from the west.
An upper disturbance will bring a few showers late on Tuesday
followed by a reinforcement of cooler and drier air through mid
week. Summer warmth and humidity will return late week into next
weekend.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable

Fog potential for tonight...Moderate

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 7 mph becoming east.
Max Mixing Hgt......5500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....North around 3 mph, increasing to northeast 12
                    to 20 mph in the late morning and early
                    afternoon, then decreasing to 5 to 9 mph early
                    in the afternoon.
Max Vent Rate.......53359 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........8.
Max ADI.............39.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........76  79  72  66  59  54  49  44
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............77  79  81  82  83  84  85  85
RH..............66  59  53  49  47  46  46  47
CHC Pcpn (%)....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..6   6   7   6   6   6   5   5
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 3.1 3.9 4.7 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5
Trans Wnd Dir...NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Trans Wnd Spd...17  16  14  12  9   8   7   5
Haines Index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VR MPH-FT*1000..39  50  53  53  53  45  37  28
Stability.......D   D   D   D   D   D   C   C
LVORI...........3   1   1   1   2   2   2   2
ADI.............35  39  38  34  29  26  30  20
Aparnt Tmp (F)..77  81  82  83  84  85  85  85
Sfc pres (in)...003 003 003 003 999 999 999 999

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 66.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds.
Min Mixing Hgt......300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....East around 5 mph, becoming west 2 to 3 mph
                    early in the evening.
Min Vent Rate.......459 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........8.
Min ADI.............1.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........40  35  30  26  22  19  22  26  30  30  30  29
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............83  81  79  76  74  73  71  70  68  67  66  66
RH..............52  57  64  71  79  85  90  93  96  100 100 100
CHC Pcpn (%)....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
20 FT wind dir..E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  S   SW  SW  W   W   NW
20 FT wind spd..4   4   4   3   3   2   2   2   2   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5                   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...3.5 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Trans Wnd Dir...E   SE  S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   NW
Trans Wnd Spd...5   5   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Haines Index....3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   5   5   5   5
VR MPH-FT*1000..15  7   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   0   0   1
Stability.......B   G   G   G   G   G   G   G   G   G   G   G
LVORI...........2   3   3   3   4   5   5   6   7   7   8   8
ADI.............20  2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Aparnt Tmp (F)..84  83  79  76  74  73  71  70  68  67  66  66
Sfc pres (in)...999 999 998 998 998 998 998 998 995 995 995 995

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Isolated showers
                    early in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds.
Max Mixing Hgt......5400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest 2 to 3 mph, increasing to 5 to 12 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Max Vent Rate.......35650 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........7.
Max ADI.............42.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........33     35     28     37     58     61
Weather cov.....                            ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............67     72     79     84     86     86
RH..............100    83     65     53     49     48
CHC Pcpn (%)....10     10     10     10     20     20
20 ft wind......NW 3   N 3    N 4    N 3    E 2    E 3
20 ft wind gust.5      5      5      5             5
Mix hgt (ft)....300    300    2800   4200   4600   5100
Transport wind..NW 2   N 3    N 10   N 8    N 5    N 6
Haines Index....5      5      5      4      5      5
VR MPH-FT*1000..1      1      29     34     23     31
Stability.......G      B      B      B      C      C
LVORI...........7      5      1      1      2      2
ADI.............1      4      36     40     18     24
Aparnt Tmp (F)..67     72     81     86     87     88
Sfc pres (in)...29.95  29.99  29.99  29.99  29.95  29.95

$$
Forecaster...Neuherz
Requested by...Angie Carl
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1711624.0/ILM
.EMAIL acarl@tnc.org



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