-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
038
FXUS61 KILN 130532
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
132 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move off to the east tonight and Monday. Low
pressure will move out of the Ozarks and track east across the
Ohio Valley Monday night through Wednesday, resulting in
unsettled conditions across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Tranquil conditions are on tap through the near term period as
some cirrus spill into the region through the night. The wind
will stay up just a bit tonight at around 3-5kts, especially in
comparison to Saturday night, meaning that temps won`t dip
quite as much. That being said, lows will range from the upper
40s in rural/sheltered locales in central/south-central OH and
NE KY to the mid 50s near/W of I-75... about normal for this
time of the year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
For the first part of Monday, a mid level ridge axis will
traverse east across the Ohio Valley. Once this axis goes by,
there will be an increase in mid and high level clouds, mixed
with some diurnal cumulus clouds. Southerly flow will increase,
becoming locally gusty (20 to 25 mph) in the afternoon. By late
in the day, deeper moisture will increase from the southwest
ahead of the next weather system. This may bring a low chance of
a shower late in the day, mainly west of the I-75 corridor. It
will continue to warm from the previous day with highs ranging
from 75 to 80.

By Monday night, a lead s/wv ejecting ahead of a mid level
trough over the middle Mississippi River Valley will bring
moisture and lift. This feature, coupled with a modest low
level jet, will result in numerous showers as they pivot
southwest to northeast overnight. There will be enough
instability for a few embedded thunderstorms. Clouds and
higher humidity will keep overnight lows warm, mostly in the
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
On Tuesday morning, an upper low over the middle Mississippi
Valley region will be opening up into a wave, moving very slowly
eastward into the Ohio Valley. Flow into the ILN CWA will
generally be southerly at the surface, switching to
southwesterly through the 850mb-700mb layer. This pattern will
support general ascent over the region, with enough moisture and
destabilization to provide a chance for showers and
thunderstorms. There may be a diurnal minimum at the beginning
of the day, with additional showers and storms developing by
afternoon and evening. Broader forcing in the southern sections
of the forecast area will exist, as well as some more focused
forcing ahead of a cold front moving southward into northern
Indiana and Ohio. By Tuesday night, a surface low associated
with this entire system will be weakening as it tracks east into
the area. Would not be surprised to see some slow storm motions
and localized heavy rain. However, the overall instability and
wind shear projections are not looking especially favorable for
severe weather.

By Wednesday morning, the surface low will be washing out, but
the upper trough will still be lumbering its way to the east.
This will keep a chance of some additional showers in the
forecast -- and possibly a thunderstorm, with some cooler air
moving in aloft providing some steeper lapse rates. Once the
trough axis has departed the area, dry conditions are expected
late Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Ridging and surface high pressure will bring drier conditions
on Thursday. Confidence is low in the pattern for Friday and
Saturday, as there remains model disagreement in how quickly
southerly flow and upstream troughing will return to the area.
There are also differences in just how amplified the pattern
will get heading into next weekend. Friday is looking a little
more likely to have rain in the area, with lower confidence in
timing for the next system or two beyond that.

With the trough still in the area, temperatures on Tuesday and
Wednesday will be in the lower 70s for highs. A warming trend is
expected beyond that, with values reaching the upper 70s to
lower 80s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Conditions will remain VFR through the forecast, except at CVG
where MVFR ceilings may develop with showers near the end of
their 30 hour TAF. Otherwise, clouds will increase ahead of low
pressure advancing from the west. VCSH are forecast at CVG LUK
DAY and ILN as moisture increases near the end of the 24 hour
forecast. Have backed off on timing relative to previous model
runs. Winds from the south will rise to 10 to 13 knots, with
gusts around 20 knots possible this afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities possible with
thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. MVFR ceilings and
visibilities possible with thunderstorms Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...Coniglio