Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 241757
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
157 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
High pressure will push east across the region through this
afternoon, resulting in another sunny and warm day. Above normal
temperatures will continue through the weekend as a series of
upper level disturbances push through the region. This will bring
a chance of showers and thunderstorms from time to time through
the end of the week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure will remain in place across the region
through this afternoon. Outside of a few high level clouds pushing
up over the ridge and a few diurnal cumulus, mostly sunny skies
are expected. As the airmass continues to modify, expect highs a
bit warmer than what we saw on Monday, with highs in the upper 70s
to the lower 80s.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As the surface high moves off to the east tonight into Wednesday,
some return flow will develop as the low level southwesterly flow
begins to increase. The combination of a weak mid level impulse
moving through the lower Ohio Valley and some developing waa could
lead to isolated to scattered shower and possibly thunderstorm
development off to our southwest later tonight. If this does
develop, it will lift northeast toward our area late tonight into
early Wednesday morning. Will therefore allow for some lower
chance pops to work into our southwest late, but with little if
any instability progged across our area, will keep any pcpn as
just showers through Wednesday morning.
In continued southwesterly low level flow and waa, we should push
up into the lower 80s through Wednesday afternoon. This will allow
for us to destabilize through the day and with another mid level
short wave lifting northwest across the area Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night, expect scattered shower and thunderstorms to
develop. We will destabilize once again through the day on
Thursday as we warm back up into the lower 80s. However, with a
little bit of mid level ridging possibly redeveloping across the
region, think thunderstorm development will be more limited so
will keep pops in the lower chance category through Thursday
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The H5 ridge continues to build up over the east coast into the
weekend. This will lock the summer pattern in for the extended.
Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s each day. Scattered diurnal
convection will also be the rule. Went with only chance pops each
day...tapering off overnight. Low temperatures should be mild
through the period, as they will generally be in the 60s.
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Surface high pressure will continue to move east of the region
through the TAF period. Meanwhile...a mid level disturbance to our
west will move east into the area on Wednesday. Moisture will
increase ahead of this feature in the form of mid level clouds at
first tonight. Forcing is weak with this system. However...there
could be enough lift for some spotty shower activity moving into
the western terminals around 12Z. On Wednesday...the combination
of the mid level feature and diurnal heating will result in some
scattered shower/perhaps thunderstorms...with coverage expected to
be low enough at this time to just carry a vcsh.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon through
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