Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 220548 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 148 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE INTO THE FA OVERNIGHT. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND THEREFORE FLOODING CONCERNS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS WELL. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE FA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RAIN COOLED AIR AS THIS SYSTEM WORKS INTO THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD AS H5 S/W DROPS SE IN THE NW FLOW. INITIAL CONVECTION SHOULD DROP SE DURING THE MORNING...THEN ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE NW AND WORK DOWN INTO THE FA DURING THE AFTN. WENT LIKELY POPS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FA...THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EXTREME SW CORNER...WHERE KEPT THE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHARPENING THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE PCPN TO PUSH S OF THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF FRIDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY SHOWED DIE DOWN DURING THE SATURDAY EVENING HOURS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. HEAT INDICES IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE NEAR 100. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE ON EITHER SIDE OF 70....WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TRYING TO WORK INTO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEAK AS THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH OUR AREA STILL ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...WE COULD SEE A LOW END CHANCE OF POPS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF FORCING...BUT WE WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT SO SUPPOSE THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOMETHING TO DROP DOWN SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...PRIMARILY DURING THE MORE DIURNALLY FAVORABLE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY...BETTER INSTABILITIES WILL WORK MORE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TOO. HOWEVER...WITH WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS AND A CONTINUED LACK OF FORCING...THINK ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT THROUGH MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARD OUR AREA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...BEFORE A POSSIBLE COOL DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT WAVE ENERGY ON A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CARRYING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING. AFTER A LULL DURING LATE MORNING...MORE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE TYPICAL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS HUMID AND UNSETTLED REGIME. WINDS HAVE SETTLED DOWN FROM EARLIER GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS AS INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED EARLY THIS MORNING. COULD SEE MORE STRONG GUSTS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS INSTABILITY RISES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SITES/SNYDER NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...CONIGLIO

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.