Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 292322 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 722 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN FOR THURSDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AREA OF SC ASSOCIATED WITH H5 S/W AND H8 CAA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR PUSH IT JUST PAST THE OHIO RIVER BEFORE STALLING OUT. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND H5 RIDGING BUILDS IN AFT 06Z...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO ERODE FROM THE SW....WITH CLEARING MAKING IT INTO THE CVG TRI-STATE REGION AFTER 06Z. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO ALLOW PATCHY FROST TO FOG. WAS TOSSING AROUND THE IDEA OF ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CVG TRI-STATE...BUT THE OFFICES TO WEST WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT SOONER ARE HOLDING OFF...SO DONT WANT TO STAND OUT AND BE METEOROLOGICALLY INCONSISTENT. WILL MENTION PATCHY FROST IN THE SW. ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO LINGER WHICH WILL PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 30S TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER 30S IN THE SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP SCATTER OUT ANY LINGERING SC. HOWEVER ANOTHER H5 S/W DROPPING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS IN FROM THE WEST. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND COLD FRONT WILL WORK TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SFC CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE WESTERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A DIGGING H5 S/W WHICH CUTS OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FOR FRIDAY. ADDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME SE WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD POSSIBLY HELP CREATE AN ISOLATED BOLT OR THUNDER. AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS S OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. 1000-850 CRITICAL THICKNESS DROPS ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH THE RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE TO WORK BACK INTO THE 50S TOMORROW AS THE HIGH PASSES OVER. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. ON FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE NW WONT JUMP TOO MUCH BEFORE BEGINNING TO FALL BACK DURING THE AFTN. ELSEWHERE THE DIURNAL TRACE WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACE WAS STILL NECESSARY. NLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY. UPPED THE GUSTS TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES IN SE COULD DROP BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT PCPN SHOULD HAVE ENDING BEFORE THAT OCCURS. IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH. IN THE E...LINGERING PCPN ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND WIND WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID 30S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SATURDAY STARTS OUT WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ATOP THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ARE COMBINING TO CREATE STRONG NORTH WINDS THAT WILL PULL COLD AIR OVER THE REGION...HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE THEY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLDER THAN SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA AT 12Z. GUIDANCE WOULD HAVE HAD ME RAISE THE READINGS THAT WERE IN THE 25-28 DEG RANGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME. I WAS HESITANT TO FORECAST A RISE IN TEMPERATURES AND DECIDED TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS COOLER FORECAST IN PLAY FOR ANOTHER DAY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND THAT WILL PUT READINGS MORE TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES...SLIGHTLY WARMER ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. INITIAL FORECAST HAD THE FRONT CROSS EARLY TUESDAY AND HAVE DRY WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL COMES THROUGH WITH AN ELONGATED NE-SW TROUGH WITH A MID LEVEL STRONG SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG IT ON WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST BLENDED THE TWO WITH AN INITIAL NOD TO THE GFS. FEEL THAT THIS MAY NEED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WETTER AND MORE DYNAMIC EURO MODEL SOLUTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD PUSH BEFORE BEGINNING TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL WORK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT UNDER 5 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN SHOWERS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...NOVAK

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