Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 162350 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 750 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER ALL BUT THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THESE TO DECREASE AS WELL. WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN AREAS THAT HAD HEAVIER RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE DAY. WITH UNCERTAINTY HAVE ONLY INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. USED A MOS BLEND FOR FORECAST LOWS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED AND LIFT NORTH A LITTLE DURING THE DAY. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AGAIN THERE WILL BE LITTLE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT. SO THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PRIMARILY BE DIURNAL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY START TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS A STACKED LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. MOS SEEMED REASONABLE FOR HIGHS BUT WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER AROUND THE FA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FA ON MONDAY HOWEVER BELIEVE THAT THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOW AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL HAVE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. APPEARS THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP AT KCVG KLUK AND KILN WHERE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH AND RAIN OCCURRED AT OR NEAR THE STATIONS EARLIER IN THE DAY. BUT HOW LOW VISIBILITIES DROP IS UNCERTAIN. HAVE OPTED TO LOWER TO IFR AT THIS POINT. DRIER AIR WILL SAG TOWARDS THE OTHER TERMINALS WHICH WERE ALSO NORTH OF TODAYS RAINFALL. SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THERE. CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AREA WIDE AFTER 12Z WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS FOR THE PERIOD WHEN THE CHANCE OF STORMS IS HIGHEST. BUT PRECIPITATION IS A POSSIBILITY EARLIER IN THE DAY. JUST TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS THAT FAR OUT IN TIME. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY... SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...

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