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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 162350
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
750 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION. STILL A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER ALL BUT THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THESE TO DECREASE AS WELL. WITH
LIGHT WINDS THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN AREAS THAT
HAD HEAVIER RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE DAY. WITH UNCERTAINTY HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. USED A MOS BLEND FOR FORECAST
LOWS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED AND LIFT NORTH A LITTLE DURING THE DAY. SHOULD SEE
CONVECTION DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AGAIN THERE WILL BE LITTLE LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT. SO THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PRIMARILY BE DIURNAL WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SOME MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY START TO
SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS A
STACKED LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. MOS SEEMED REASONABLE FOR HIGHS
BUT WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER AROUND THE FA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FA ON MONDAY HOWEVER BELIEVE THAT THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LOW AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE.  ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION.  MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL HAVE THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. APPEARS THAT FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT KCVG KLUK AND KILN WHERE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH AND RAIN OCCURRED AT OR NEAR THE STATIONS EARLIER IN THE DAY.
BUT HOW LOW VISIBILITIES DROP IS UNCERTAIN. HAVE OPTED TO LOWER TO
IFR AT THIS POINT. DRIER AIR WILL SAG TOWARDS THE OTHER TERMINALS
WHICH WERE ALSO NORTH OF TODAYS RAINFALL. SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL
THERE. CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AREA WIDE AFTER 12Z WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED VCTS FOR THE PERIOD WHEN THE CHANCE OF STORMS IS
HIGHEST. BUT PRECIPITATION IS A POSSIBILITY EARLIER IN THE DAY.
JUST TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS THAT FAR OUT IN TIME.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...