Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 222351 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 751 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... SCATTERED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO POP UP AGAIN AS WE REACH PEAK HEATING. THE EASTERN HALF THE FA HAS A CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE HEAVY RAINS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LAST NIGHT INTO TODAY HAS ONLY ADDED MOISTURE TO A VERY HUMID AIRMASS. PUT THE MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG IN THE W AND PATCHY FOG IN THE E. DIDNT MENTION DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. AFTER 06Z...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTERACTS WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY TO POSSIBLY KICK OFF A SHOWER OR MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM IN THE EXTREME WRN COUNTIES. AS FOR LOWS TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR THE NE 3/4 OF THE REGION...LEAVING THE MAJORITY OF THE TRI- STATE REGION IN THE LOWER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT IN SHARPENING THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNDER THE H5 RIDGE. SWRN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY. H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A POP UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS. COOLED OFF THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO THE MID 60S IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE SW WILL STILL SE LOWS AROUND 70. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF MOS HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AS WE HAVE NOT COME CLOSE TO THE WARMER MAV TEMPS. KEPT THE HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SITUATED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY SO WILL NUDGE TEMPS UP A BIT WARMER THAN WHAT IS SUGGESTED BY GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT INSTABILITIES TO DEVELOP BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD AND LIMITED FORCING...THINK ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK BUT THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO EXACTLY HOW FAST THIS WILL HAPPEN. THE 12Z GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...PUSHING IT THROUGH FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CMC. HAVE GENERALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE MODELS...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING POPS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AND ON INTO THURSDAY...THEN LINGERING SOME LOWER END POPS INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF/CMC. TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE BE DEPENDENT ON THE FRONTAL TIMING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY BY KCMH...KLCK...AND KILN WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE FOG THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS DEVELOPING AT THE AREA TAF SITES EXCEPT KCVG AND KLUK. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD CU WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE VCSH MENTION IN AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KDAY AND KILN. OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...NOVAK

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