Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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116 FXUS61 KILN 291527 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1127 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will remain across the area through much of the weekend. This will lead to a chance of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day. High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the Ohio Valley Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Increased temperatures generally northwest of Interstate 71 where there has been more sun today. A few degrees away from convective temperature in northwest portions of the forecast area so expect that area to cu rather soon. Although some shower and isolated thunderstorm activity will continue to be possible across southern and eastern portions of the forecast area, better support and better conditions exist for thunderstorm activity across areas that have received more heating. This will gradually translate east later today into this evening. Cannot rule out some heavy rain and isolated strong to severe storms this afternoon as thunderstorms develop. Will continue to mention these threats in the HWO. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... While isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity should begin to taper off through the evening hours as we lose the diurnal enhancement, a few showers may linger into the overnight hours as some short wave energy will continue to push east across the region. We will then destabilize again through the day on Saturday and with the boundary still lingering across the area, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to redevelop once again through the afternoon hours. Diurnally driven activity will then taper off Saturday evening with lower end pops then possible on into sunday as we begin to dry out and the better forcing shifts off to our east. Highs both Saturday and Sunday will be in the low to possibly mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure and dry conditions are expected for Monday into Tuesday across the region. Some model solutions are showing a complex of storms working down into portions of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The best chance of precipitation with this appears to be across western portions of the area. There have been some run to run inconsistencies and the GFS is maintaining a dry forecast during this time, therefore limited any precipitation chances to the chance category at this time. The 12z ECMWF has come in drier for Wednesday night into Thursday, which better corresponds with the GFS. Due to this went with a dry forecast to only a slight chance of storms during this time. Better chances of precipitation look to hold off until after the end of the long term period on Friday as a frontal boundary moves through the region. High temperatures will generally be in the 80s with low temperatures in the 60s to around 70. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Fog has formed across some of the terminals this morning due to the light winds and dewpoint depressions near or at zero. Fog will lift this morning giving way to VFR clouds as an upper level low approaches from the west. PWATs remain elevated this afternoon around 1.80" on the NAM and 1.70" on the GFS with k index values in the mid 30s. The sun will then help to continue to destabilize the atmosphere this afternoon leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Given the unorganized nature of the convection have left the mention as vicinity. Later this evening coverage will begin to diminish as afternoon heating is lost. Some high res models are holding on to coverage slightly longer than usual (compared to normal diurnal based storms), but this makes sense given the upper level low just to our west. Have adjusted TAFs to account for this. There is uncertainty on how much coverage there will be Saturday as the GFS is trying to bring drier air into the area while the NAM holds on the the moisture longer. For now have left the mention of precip out of the CVG taf. Mostly light west winds will continue through the TAF period as surface low pressure remains north of the area. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday and Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Haines

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