Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 230325 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1025 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure in the southern Ohio Valley will move east late tonight and Thursday. A cold front will pass over the region early on Saturday. High pressure will build back in on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Temperatures have dropped off quickly this evening and expect some additional drops in temperatures especially southeast of Interstate 71. Clouds are beginning to work into portions of the area northwest of Dayton and these clouds will overspread the region through the night. As they do temperatures will slowly begin to climb.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Expect a gradual switch to southwest flow Thursday with a general warming trend until Saturday`s cold front. The clear skies and light winds should allow highs to reach the low and mid 40s on Thanksgiving, with overnight lows reaching the upper 20s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Southerly flow will increase early in the period ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will push across the region Friday night into Saturday morning. Moisture looks quite limited with this with just a small chance of measurable precipitation in central Ohio. Insolation should mostly offset initial cold air advection on Saturday. So near to slightly above normal temperatures from Friday will continue through Saturday. High pressure will build in Sunday and already start to move off to the southeast on Monday. 12Z models continue to trend towards less cooling with this air mass and forecast temperatures have been adjusted slightly warmer. There remains considerable spread in speed and strength of the next system progressing across the country early to middle of next week. Given continued differences, opted to use an ensemble mean which would bring a front into the area on Wednesday. Temperatures will become mild ahead of the front with a chance of showers as it moves through. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Expect the stratocu that are generally around KCMH and KLCK to continue to dissipate this evening with the change in wind direction. High clouds and then mid clouds will work into the region later in the overnight and into the day on Thursday. Before the extensive high and mid clouds move into the region, cannot rule out some MVFR vsbys overnight at KLUK. Elsewhere across the TAF sites expect VFR conditions through the TAF period. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM... AVIATION...Novak

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