Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 221923 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 323 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level low will drift slowly southeast across the Tennessee Valley tonight into Sunday. This will lead to a few showers mainly along and south of the Ohio River tonight. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through the first part of the week along with a gradual warming trend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Area radars are showing a fair amount of returns stretching from southeast Missouri eastward across much of Kentucky and southern Indiana. Returns are fairly light though along the northern portions of this and much of this does not appear to be reaching the ground. This is all associated with an upper level trough/low pressure system that is forecast to sag southeast into the Tennessee valley through tonight. This will allow for this pcpn to continue to work southward as it also pushes east as we head into tonight. Based on how paltry the precipitation has been so far, will limit pops to just a chance across our south and slowly taper it off overnight. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s in the northwest to the mid 40s across the southeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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The upper level low will continue to drift slowly southeast into the southeastern United States Sunday through Sunday night. The models have trended farther south with the pcpn associated with this feature with the northern fringe possibly sneaking up just into our far southeastern fa. Will therefore just allow for some slight chance pops down toward Portsmouth but otherwise have a dry forecast for Sunday and Sunday night. We will remain in northeasterly low level flow through the day on Sunday and as a result may not warm quite as much as indicated by guidance. Expect highs on Sunday mainly in the low to possibly mid 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Monday and Tuesday should have dry weather with a closed upper low traveling well to the south, leaving the ILN area under a ridge of high pressure. With models trending slower, mainly dry weather will continue into Wednesday, until the threat for showers and thunderstorms begins in increasing moisture and instability ahead of an approaching cold front. Thunderstorm chances will continue Wednesday night and Thursday as the front swings across the area. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday and Saturday when the front is forecast to stall and then lift back north toward I-70. Above normal geopotential heights suggest warmer than normal conditions. Temperatures forecast to rise into the 70s each day will indeed be above normal through the period.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The second wave of pcpn is continuing to overspread southern portions of our fa but much of it does not seem to be reaching the ground. As a result, will continue with just some VCSH coverage in the first few hours of the TAFS for KLUK/KCVG. Cigs are primarily VFR although we have seen some brief periods of MVFR from time to time and this will continue to be possible through at least mid afternoon. Otherwise, the models continue to trend farther south with additional pcpn later tonight and into the day on Sunday. Will keep the TAFs dry through the remainder of the period with VFR conditions expected. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...JGL

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