Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 190342 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1042 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will push through the region late this evening. In the wake of this front precipitation will taper off overnight. High pressure and a much cooler airmass will settle into the region for Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Mid level shortwave trof axis to pivot through the Great Lakes overnight. Surface front has swept east of ILN/s FA with deformation axis of pcpn coming through ILN/s area. This will lead to lingering showers into the overnight hours. Thermal fields continue to suggest that drier air works in limiting winter pcpn to only a mix of rain and snow across the far north prior to ending. In low level CAA pattern, strong northwest winds of 25 to 25 mph with gusts of 35 to 40 mph will continue to slowly diminish. With the winds expected to continue below wind advisory criteria have cancelled the advisory. Clouds to hang most of the night with only some partial clearing into the far sw counties possible late. Expect lows to range from the lower/mid 30s west to the mid/upper 30s east.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/... We will remain in weak cyclonic flow and low level CAA through much of the day on Sunday as a secondary mid level short wave pivots across the region. There will be a fetch off of Lake Michigan but moisture will generally be limited to below 850 mb. This could lead to a few snow showers through early afternoon, especially across northern portions of our area. In the CAA, expect highs on Sunday only in the mid to possibly upper 30s. Surface high pressure will build in from the southwest Sunday night allowing the low level flow to begin to back. This should allow for clearing skies Sunday night with lows dropping down into the mid 20s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Surface high pressure will push off the the east through the day on Monday. As we start to get into some return flow, temperatures will begin to moderate with highs rising into the mid to upper 40s. Short wave energy rotating across the upper Great Lakes will help push a cold front southeast across our area Tuesday into Tuesday night. Moisture is limited with this so will maintain a dry forecast at this point. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. We will remain in a northwest flow pattern through the end of the week. There are some timing and placement differences between the models with weak energy dropping down toward the area through Friday. However, the airmass will remain relatively dry with the next chance of pcpn not until some stronger energy drops down from the northwest heading into Saturday. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Deep surface low pressure over Lake Erie to continue lifting quickly northeast through the eastern Great Lakes overnight. Showers and perhaps an embedded thunderstorm with strong southward trailing cold front moving through the TAF sites early this evening. IFR CIGs and vsbys possible in some of the heavier downpours early this evening. This pcpn will push east across the TAf sites as the front sweeps east. As the front comes through, wind gusts up to 37 kts will be possible with winds veering to the northwest. Mid level Deformation zone over Indiana with additional showers will offer a chance of lingering pcpn into the overnight hours. Will continue MVFR CIGs overnight into Sunday with improvement expected Sunday afternoon. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL/AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...AR

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