Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 250613 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 113 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. COLDER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... UPDATE FOCUSED MAINLY IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING, AREAS IN THE S AND W HAVE BROKEN OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MID CLOUDS WORKING E TOWARDS THE AREA...SO SKY SHOULD GO MOSTLY CLOUDY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARDS. HAVE CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NORTH AND INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH. 00Z NAM HAS TRICKLED IN ALONG WITH SOME RAP AND HRRR AND THEY HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF THE PCPN TOMORROW. SO BACKED OFF ON THE PCPN AT THE END OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD. PREVIOUS LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S STILL LOOK GOOD. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... TRICKY SNOW FORECAST WITH SOME DIGGING OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AS IT ENTERS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH THE ONLY LOCATION TO REMAIN PREDOMINATELY SNOW BEING THE FAR NW. THE S/WV STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF AMPLIFICATION AS IT DIGS SOUTH INTO FCST AREA. PRECIP IN MOST LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE SLOWED ONSET SLIGHTLY...AND DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LINGERING PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW IN ESPECIALLY CENTRAL OHIO...BEGAN SNOW ADVISORY AT 15Z/10AM. MOST LOCATIONS IN ADVISORY WILL SEE 3-5 INCHES WITH SOME 6 INCH AMOUNTS...BUT THE TRICK IS IN THE SURFACE/LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE SLOWLY PICKING UP ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...AS WELL AS GFS/ECMWF CONVERGING ON TRACK...WITH NAM WARMER AND SLOWER WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KDAY/KILN...CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW LIKELY NOT TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 7PM SUNDAY...WHICH IS BEHIND THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. GREATEST UNCERTAINTY WILL BE IN THE AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY...WHERE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING. EARLIER COLD AIR INTRUSION WILL RESULT IN MORE SNOW HERE...ALONG WITH HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH SNOW AT ONSET TO BE A 10:1 RATIO...THEN AS THE COLD AIR DIGS INTO ESPECIALLY THE UPPER GREAT MIAMI VALLEY AND ST. MARYS BASIN...RATIOS MORE IN THE 14:1 WITH THE COLDER AIR. HAVE CONTINUED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TACTIC OF A BLEND OF MODEL 2M TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENT...AND THEN BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY HAS THE SYSTEM RETREATING WITH JUST LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA YIELDING LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW TOTAL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A WEAK S/WV WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER WITH ITS PLACEMENT. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER WEST WHILE THE NAM/GFS ARE FARTHER EAST. HAVE GONE WITH THE LATTER WHICH KEEPS CONTINUITY. THIS CALLS FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODIFY SOME BY WEDNESDAY. FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF UPCOMING WEATHER SYSTEMS. A LEAD S/WV FOLLOWED BY A STRONG S/WV WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE BY LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT. PCPN SHOULD ENCROACH THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD EAST ON THURSDAY. HOW FAST TEMPERATURES WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY PCPN ONSET WILL DETERMINE PCPN TYPE. ALTHOUGH IT IS LOOKING LIKE A GOOD PART OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET...HAVE GONE WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX ATTM GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED THIS SYSTEM IS (GIVEN THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT MIXED PCPN TYPE THIS FAR OUT). THE ENTIRE REGION WILL LIKELY GO OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR A TIME THURSDAY AFTN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE PCPN MIX WITH THEN CHANGE OVER TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING. FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF ATTM WHICH IS FASTER AND PUSHES AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MVFR TO VFR CIGS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES EXPECT ALL AREA TAF SITES TO HAVE CIGS BECOME VFR. ALTHOUGH CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR...MVFR VSBYS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT SOME OF THE AREA TAF SITES. STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TAF SITES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE TAF SITES RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. AS THE INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION WORKS INTO THE AREA CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ICE PELLETS AT KDAY FOR A BRIEF AMOUNT OF TIME. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ICE PELLETS MIXING IN...LIMITED MENTION TO A ONE HOUR TEMPO GROUP AT KDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY THEN THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056. KY...NONE. IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...NOVAK

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