Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 301523 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1123 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WHEN A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO OHIO. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL WORK IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN MOIST ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LLJ WILL PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE WARM FRONT COMES CLOSE TO OUR SOUTHWEST CWFA...SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. RAIN TODAY WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH A QUARTER TO HALF INCH EXPECTED. SPC SWODY1 HAS OUR FAR SRN/SWRN CWFA IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH JUST A SMALL PORTION IN THE FAR SWRN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY MAY WORK INTO OUR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING TO PRODUCE THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. IF ANYTHING...WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS...I.E...LOW LCLS...IT MAY BE ONE OF THOSE INSTANCES THAT ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES ARE LOW (2 PERCENT PER SPC)...ANY ROTATING SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED DUE TO HIGHER LEVELS OF HELICITY AND LOW LCLS FOR AN ISOLATED SPIN UP. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUTED TODAY GIVEN RAIN AND CLOUDS...BUT WILL SHOW SOME WARMING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE RIVER...WHERE THE WARM FRONT NEARS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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TONIGHT...THE WRMFNT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS...INCLUDING CAMS...DIFFER ON THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. PWATS INCREASE TO 1.50 INCHES...WHICH IS BEYOND THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR PWAT VALUES BASED ON ILN SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. ALSO...ANOTHER KEY WILL BE HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS TODAY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HOW IT AFFECTS FFG VALUES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR AND HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THIS WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW...LOCATIONS ACRS OUR SRN CWFA HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. CHANCES OF PCPN SHOULD DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AS FA BECOMES WARM SECTORED. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH TONIGHT...ONLY FALLING BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO THE UPPER 50S AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. ON SUNDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN EJECTING UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...A SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO OHIO. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEVERAL MODELS ARE TRYING TO POINT TO A DRY MORNING...BEFORE AFTERNOON HEATING KICKS OFF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE MORNING...SINCE THE FA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE. INCREASED THE POPS TO THEIR HIGHEST DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR EAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S...EXCEPT TO THE NW PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DROPPING ENERGY OUT OF CANADA AND CUTTING A H5 LOW OFF OVER THE LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. INCREASED POPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE AREA. WITH THE UPPER LOW CUT OFF OVER THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS LOW...SO LEFT THE PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. AFTER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL COOL OFF TO AROUND 60 FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 40S. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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EASTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLOUDS BACK INTO CMH/LCK AREA. THIS SHOULD DECREASE BY MID MORNING WHILE APPROACHING LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST RETURNS MOISTURE. VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WEST SHOULD BECOME MVFR LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN AND FOG REDUCING VSBYS AND CIGS LOWERING. SOME IFR MAY DEVELOP FOR A TIME EARLY EVENING BUT SHOULD RETURN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH MIXING AND DRYING AS STEADIER RAIN PUSHES EAST. WILL BE A LULL IN RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS PERSISTING. HAVE LEFT OUT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR NOW BUT SCATTERED THUNDER COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING NEAR OHIO RIVER IN BETTER INSTABILITY. OUTLOOK...MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/SITES SHORT TERM...HICKMAN/SITES LONG TERM... AVIATION...PADGETT

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