Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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111 FXUS61 KILN 290524 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 124 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this evening as a weak cold front pushes through the area. A drier airmass will settle into the region heading into Monday before some lower chances of precipitation return through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Mid level s/w to pivot through the the srn Great Lakes tonight as low develops over the western Great Lakes. ILN/s FA was in the warm sector today with 00Z sounding showing marginal instby with CAPE only around 600 j/kg. The sounding also shows convective inhibition which kept ILN/s FA dry through the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms developed along and ahead of weak sfc cold front approaching from the west. These storms are weakening as they push into western Ohio into a less favorable thermodynamic environment. Expect these storms to track east across the FA through about midnight with the passage of the front. With lack of favorable instability the severe threat is very marginal and continues to diminish as the storms push east. Drier air will then work in overnight, leading to decreasing clouds from northwest to southeast in the wake of the front. Expect lows from the upper 50s west to the lower 60s east. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... The drier airmass will continue to settle into the region through the morning hours on Monday. Some energy rotating around an upper level low centered over the northern Great Lakes will push down toward our area later Monday afternoon into Monday night. This will help push an associated weakening surface trough down into northern portions of our area. Forcing and instability appears to be fairly weak so will just hang on to some slight chance pops across the area for mainly Monday night. Seasonable temperatures are expected on Monday with highs in the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A few showers and thunderstorms may develop Tuesday in the vicinity of a weak cold front, affecting mainly eastern counties. A similar scenario is indicated for Wednesday near the stalled boundary, with thunderstorm chances enhanced by increased short wave energy rounding the base of a broad upper trough. High pressure and dry weather to start Thursday will decay rather quickly as another frontal boundary forms across the Great Lakes, allowing for a chance of showers and thunderstorms to return by Thursday night. Thunderstorms will affect mainly northern locations to start, with convection chances spreading south and persisting Friday through Sunday as the front meanders over the region. Temperatures are likely to be near normal through the period, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s to around 60. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Chances for thunderstorms are ending at the TAF sites, perhaps just to persist for another hour or so at Columbus. While a few light showers are located upstream over Indiana, these are most likely to dissipate, and very unlikely to hit one of the airports. Aside from a few MVFR ceilings in the next couple hours, VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the TAF period, with clearing skies. Late this afternoon, there will be an increase in mid level clouds from the north, reaching the northern TAF sites by late in the forecast period. There may be a chance for a few scattered showers or thunderstorms, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs as of now. A VCSH will be used at TDAY. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible on Friday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Hatzos

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