Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 271934 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 334 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A slow-moving low pressure system and association cold front will push south toward the Ohio River tonight. The low will then pivot to the northeast toward West Virginia as the cold front pushes south on Friday. High pressure will build in behind the departing low for the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Low pressure over northeast Indiana will sag slowly southeast toward the Tri-State region tonight. As this occurs, an associated cold front will also sag south toward the Ohio River. An exiting MCV over central Ohio is currently responsible for showers here. Elsewhere, weak WAA ahead of the low is responsible for scattered showers/isolated thunder. For tonight, we should see at least likely PoPs for southern locations as the low pivots toward the Ohio River. The airmass is very moist, PWATs over 2 inches, along with WCDs near 4.0 km. Therefore, the showers will be efficient rain producers. The threat for flooding and/or flash flooding is there, but should be more relegated/limited to where thunderstorms occur. The coverage of thunder is expected to be in the chance category. Thus, with limited coverage, will continue to mention heavy rainfall in the forecast with a mention for flooding in the HWO. With winds become light near the low, we will likely see some patchy fog as well. Lows will range from the mid 60s north to near 70 along and south of the Ohio River.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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An upper level s/wv is expected to close off as a mid level circulation over Ohio/Pennsylvania on Friday as it digs southeast. This will pull the low northeast toward West Virginia. We will see mostly cloudy skies on Friday with the best chance for showers, perhaps a rumble of thunder, over the eastern zones closer to the low pressure system. Highs will be held down due to clouds and the threat for pcpn, which should range from the mid to upper 70s. For Friday night, the mid level closed circulation will move slowly southeast. As this occur, the surface low will slowly pivot east/northeast. The threat for pcpn will come to an end from west to east along with a clearing trend from the west as well. Drier air will filter in on northerly flow. Lows will range from the mid 50s northwest to the lower 60s southeast.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Highly amplified mid/upper level flow pattern with ridge building over the west and trof over the east. This will place the Ohio Valley in a northwest flow pattern this weekend. Surface high pressure of Canadian origin will build southeast across the Great Lakes. This high will provide dry conditions and seasonably cool temperatures. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday look to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, with highs generally in the mid and upper 70s. Dry weather to persist with some moderation to temperatures through the week. Expect highs by Wednesday close to normal and generally in the mid 80s. Next upper level trof to drop south across the Great Lakes late in the week. Some model solution timing differences exist regarding this feature. Have limited pops to low chance Thursday north and then increase chances across the Fa Thursday night into Friday with the approach of the associated surface front.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure and a slow-moving frontal boundary will move south toward the Ohio river tonight. As upper level energy digs southeast into Ohio/Pennsylvania on Friday, the low will pivot northeast toward West Virginia. An embedded disturbance currently moving into central Ohio is responsible for the showers/isolated thunderstorms across the region this afternoon. The northern terminals will have a period of mainly MVFR conditions with these showers as theY move east/southeast for the remainder of the afternoon. As the instability overall is marginal, thunderstorms will be more isolated. For tonight, low pressure and the front will make their way south toward the Ohio River. Likely showers with embedded thunder will move south as well with the low. With a very moist airmass in place, ceilings are forecast to drop to IFR for most terminals with some patchy fog associated with MVFR, local IFR, visibilities. On Friday, the low will pivot northeast toward West Virginia. Ceilings will lift to MVFR toward 16Z, and perhaps returning back to VFR most locations between 21Z and 00Z. Showers, perhaps a rumble of thunder, will be most likely near KCMH/KLCK closer to the low to our east/southeast. Precipitation will exhibit a decreasing trend from northwest to southeast Friday night as the low moves toward the east. OUTLOOK...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Hickman

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