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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 161038
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
638 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN THE I-70
CORRIDOR AND THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AND HELP SPARK SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR HAS LOST A LOT OF THE
LIGHTNING THAT WAS WITH IT EARLIER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE BUT ONCE DAYLIGHT HITS THE COLUMN THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD BIT MORE ENERGY ADDED TO THE ATMOSPHERE TO HELP THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE
LULL EARLY THIS MORNING BUT IN THE ENVIRONMENT THAT THE AREA IS
UNDER...REMOVING POPS AT ANY LOCATION IS NOT THE PRUDENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THOUGH NO ONE
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE A WASHOUT...OR PARTICULARLY DRY EITHER.
ZONE OF BETTER CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.

WITH THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO BE EXTENSIVE OVER THE REGION WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT AND SEE READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TONIGHT
TO THE LOW 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO
BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER 70S FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WITH NO DISTINCT FEATURE IN THE MID LEVELS TO KEY THE INITIATION
OF CONVECTION AND A RELATIVELY BROAD LOWER LEVEL OF CONVERGENCE IN
A RECEPTIVE ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.  THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OFF AND ON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS TIME.  WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IN PLACE  SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW.  A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
THE REGION.  THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME.  DUE TO
MODEL DISCREPANCIES DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE UP ACROSS THE PORTIONS FA THIS
MORNING AS A FNT SAGS INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. LATEST MESO
SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE STORMS WILL TAPER OFF
OR WORK E EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING.

THEN AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES FOR THE AFTN HOURS...SCT TSTM
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE
BETTER LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN TAFS. ACTIVITY
STILL LOOKS TO BE SCT SO ONLY WENT WITH VCTS AFT 18Z. DUE TO LACK
OF INSTABILITY IN THE NE...KEPT ONLY VCSH AT KCMH/KLCK.

CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE
ENDING. CARRIED THE AFTER VCTS UNTIL 02Z. SCT TO BKN VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. INCREASING DEWPOINT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
FOG BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WENT WITH MVFR FOG AT LUK FOR NOW.
DEPENDING ON WHEN AND WHERE PCPN FALL...OTHER LOCATIONS COULD BE
IMPACTED BY FOG.


OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES