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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 152006
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
406 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTAINING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF I-70 SO WENT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THERE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE AREA IS FREE OF PRECIP. AS A FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE AND
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATER. WENT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
MID 60S...CLOSE TO LATEST GUIDANCE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST LOCATIONS. STORMS MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS IN
EASTERN COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND
SHORT WAVE ENERGY. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE CLOSE TO SEVERE AS
THEY TAP INTO A RATHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL FLOW IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AND
BECOME LESS NUMEROUS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE EXITS TO
THE EAST AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE MOVES SOUTH WITH THE FRONT.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY FOR SUNDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT
PRECIP COULD PREVENT HIGHS FROM REACHING THE PREDICTED LOWER 80S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT ACRS KY
MONDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
NAM APPEARS OVERDONE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THEREFORE THE
PRECIPITATION. PREFER A BLEND TOWARD THE ECMWF...ONLY ALLOWING LOW
CHC POPS IN THE SOUTH.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL END ANY MENTION OF PRECIP
EARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS EVIDENCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG A SECONDARY
FRONT TUESDAY AFTN/EVENING BUT AT THIS TIME THIS CHC APPEARS LOW.

MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SE PROVIDING GENERAL DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND.

UPR FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY WITH SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT WEEKEND. WILL ALLOW A LOW POP CHC FOR PRECIP TO RETURN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH THE BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS INTO MID WEEK THEN
RECOVER TO READINGS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MOST OF TODAY WILL BE DRY...SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
IN NORTHERN INDIANA WILL POSSIBLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH GENERALLY DRIER AIR OVER OHIO (COMPARED
TO INDIANA)...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...AND CLOUD BASES IN THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
HIGH.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL FIRST AFFECT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES...BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST. A TEMPO GROUP WAS REFINED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THESE SHOWERS...BUT THE GENERALLY SLOW
MOTION OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEAN THAT SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY...BUT A SPECIFIC FORECAST FOR THIS ACTIVITY
WILL HAVE TO BE MADE AFTER THE SITUATION OVERNIGHT IS MORE
CERTAIN. REDUCED AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS
OR HEAVIER SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS