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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 191051
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
651 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOG HAS EXPANDED ACRS PARTS OF THE TRI-STATE...WHITEWATER AND
MIAMI VALLEYS THIS MORNING. HAVE INCREASED FOG WORDING IN THE
FORECAST AND HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LOCALLY
DENSE SPOTS. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING.

OTHERWISE...PESKY UPR LVL DISTURBANCE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A MID LVL RIDGE
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT LATER TONIGHT. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FEATURE
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
POP ONCE AGAIN. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES EXPECTED ACRS OUR SOUTHEAST. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD DISSIPATE AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT AN
IMPLIED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
SIGNALS THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD POP WITH ITS
PASSAGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL RIDGING ON MONDAY SHOULD GIVE OUR AREA A REPRIEVE FROM
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACRS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT.
THUS...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...IT WILL
ALSO FEEL QUITE HUMID.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 19.00Z
CMC AND THE 19.00Z ECMWF. THE GFS SUFFERS FROM CONVECTIVE FEED
BACK WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO USE. DURING THIS PERIOD...MID LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST. OUR AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN THIS
RIDGE AND A LARGE SCALE MID LVL CLOSED LOW OVER THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS. THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL DEPEND ON ANY EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES THAT MAY EJECT NE AROUND
THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE ALLOWED POPS TO INCREMENTALLY
INCREASE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STILL BE VERY WARM...RANGING FROM
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL BLEND. IT LOOKS LIKE AS THE UPR LVL
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR REGION...A MORE
BONAFIDE S/WV AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HAVE GONE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO THESE FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A
SLOW DOWNWARD TREND DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND THE THREAT FOR PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH PCPN TAPERING
OFF TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED.
THESE PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE...SOME
MVFR CEILING MAY LAST LONGER THAN THE TAFS CURRENTLY INDICATE.

DIURNAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED YET AGAIN ON TODAY. CONFIDENCE
IN THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH
TODAY...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER IS ALSO NOT AS EASY TO
PINPOINT. IN GENERAL...THE TIMING LOOKS TO BE MORE FAVORABLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON OR VERY EARLY EVENING...WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING EAST OF THE TAF SITES BEFORE 00Z. THINGS WILL BE
KEPT RATHER GENERAL IN THE TAFS FOR NOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARING TO BE AT THE EASTERN (COLUMBUS) TAF
SITES.

A DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST IS ALSO SETTING UP FOR
TONIGHT...VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. WITH QUITE A
BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN LOCATIONS WHERE ANTECEDENT CLOUD
COVER DEPARTS OR DISSIPATES.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN/JGL
AVIATION...HATZOS