Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 080543 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1243 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure and drier air will build in overnight and Friday. Low pressure and a cold front traveling from the northwest will bring accumulating snow on Saturday. High pressure and cold, dry conditions are forecast to return for Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Cold air statocu have quickly eroded over the last couple of hours, only lingering in portions of Central and West Central Ohio. The low clouds should continue to erode. Some scattered high clouds will affect southeast sections overnight. Temperatures in the Whitewater Valley and parts of West Central oHio have dropped quickly as the clouds cleared. Therefore lowered temperatures in those areas a few degrees. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... For Friday, surface high pressure will build near the Ohio River, aligned under the southwest flow aloft on the east flank of an upper trough. The dry airmass and subsidence associated with the high will keep precip from developing through the day. High temperatures in the low to mid 30s will be about 10 degrees below normal, even with help from partial sunshine. On Friday night, a rather potent surface low pressure system forming ahead of a sharpening mid level short wave will swing toward Ohio from the northwest. Snow is forecast to develop late Friday night in increasing moisture and lift ahead of the low, with a dusting of accumulation possible toward Saturday morning in northwest counties. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Focus for the immediate long term will be how much snow is produced from low pressure and an associated cold front moving east across our region on Saturday. Models continue to fluctuate in the amount of forcing and thus QPF. It still appears that light snow will be likely, mainly north of the Ohio River, with the highest chance expected for west central Ohio. Will continue to go with 1 to perhaps 2 inches north of I-70, with an inch or less south of I-70. Highs will mostly be in the lower 30s. For Saturday night, weather system will move off to our east with another shot of cold air filtering into the region in its wake. There could be a few snow showers early, with skies becoming partly cloudy. Dry weather is expected Sunday, but temperatures will remain cold, with highs in the lower to mid 30s. For Sunday night into Monday night, models continue to advertise a clipper system to push southeast through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Isentropic lift will be greatest north with forcing weakening as one moves south of the Ohio River. Precipitation will be developing on Monday across the north, spreading south into the evening. Precipitation will be mostly in the form of snow, with perhaps a rain/snow mix along and south of the Ohio River early on before colder air filters back into the area Monday night. Highs on Monday will warm into the mid 30s to the lower 40s with lows dropping down into the lower to mid 30s by Tuesday morning. For the remainder of the extended, Tuesday through Thursday, our region will be locked in a cold pattern as a large scale upper level trough resides across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. There will be disturbances rippling through the northwest flow from time to time. The timing of these features will be difficult to pinpoint at this juncture, so the forecast will be broad brushed with low chance PoPs for snow showers. Temperatures will remain below normal. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MVFR stratocu will begin to move out of KCMH at the start of the TAF period, leaving VFR conditions. VFR conditions are expected at the other area TAF sites through the TAF period. For the remainder of the TAF period only expect some high and a few mid clouds across the region. More extensive VFR clouds will begin to work into KCVG at the end of the longer TAF period. Winds will pick up slightly for the day on Friday, however kept any wind gusts out of the TAFs at this time as they are expected to only be isolated in nature. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Saturday and then again Monday into Tuesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...Novak

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