Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 291609 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1109 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY WORK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONGER SYSTEM BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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DRY SLOT AND WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO SW OHIO WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ACRS THE FA. THEREFORE...HAVE DROPPED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES HAVE NUDGED UP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MID LEVEL S/W AND ASSOCIATED 8H AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS LED TO A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. WITH COLD AND DRY AIR IN PLACE...INITIAL PCPN TYPE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE WAS FREEZING RAIN. THIS INITIAL BAND OF PCPN IS MOVING EAST AND THE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP. ADDITIONAL PCPN DEVELOPING IN WARM SECTOR AHD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN INDIANA. HAVE DROPPED COUNTIES ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 30S AND ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING. HAVE ALLOWED A LITTLE LAG FOR ROAD TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP ABOVE FREEZING ACRS THE SCIOTO VLY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CONTINUE LATER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE FA RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE AS WELL WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE ALREADY TRANSITIONED OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND H8 WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A BAND OF SNOW OFF OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND UNDER AN INCH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AT TIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA. A LARGER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING SNOW TO THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WITH MODEST AMPLITUDE WHILE THE CANADIAN IS DEEPER/SHARPER AND THUS SLOWER. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARDS GFS/ECMWF WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z GEFS MEAN. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT A COMPARATIVELY WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER A LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS SNOW. THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR ERROR AS MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING TO BUMP POPS UP SLIGHTLY FROM EARLIER FORECAST. THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THIS ALTHOUGH IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO THINK ABOUT SPECIFICS IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS. MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. DEPENDING ON SNOW ON THE GROUND AND SKY COVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO BE EVEN COLDER PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT. 00Z MODELS SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. GFS SEEMED TOO FAST AND SO IGNORED IT. THUS BROUGHT A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE PAST THE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN THE COLUMBUS AREA...SO SOME LIGHT ICING CAN BE EXPECTED THERE. VISIBILITIES MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO START. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY WHILE SLOWLY VEERING. APPEARS THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND REMAIN GUSTY WITH CEILINGS LOWERING FURTHER AND A PERIOD OF IFR IS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS LIFTING ABOVE 2000 FT TOWARDS 12Z. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM... AVIATION...

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