Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 210559 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 159 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF TO THE EAST. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES SLOWLY EAST WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO THE AREA. PEA SIZE HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO THIS EVENING. EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT LIVED AND FOR VSBYS TO IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WORK INTO THE AREA. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ON TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SPINS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN COUNTIES. FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOISTURE AND UPPER AIR ENERGY TO SLIDE FARTHER EAST...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A DRYING TREND...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN PATCHY FROST MAY FORM LATE. RATHER CHILLY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SFC OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH. NORTHERN PORTION OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BE PINCHED OFF WITH EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LATEST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAFS AND EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR FOG...CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT THE TAF LOCATIONS. CIGS WILL LOWER TOWARDS 12Z AS ANOTHER H5 S/W ROTATES AROUND A UPPER LOW WHICH IS CLOSING OFF. ERN TAFS WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEE SHRA THIS MORNING...SOME WHICH MAY DROPS VSBYS TO MVFR. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. .OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...SITES

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