Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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062 FXUS61 KILN 272010 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 410 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level low will work into the region on Wednesday and influence the weather pattern through the remainder of the week. This feature will allow for cool and cloudy conditions with scattered shower activity.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Clear to mostly clear skies will give way to an increase in clouds overnight as an upper level low approaches the area. Precipitation will hold off most of the night, however some light shower activity will move into northwestern portions of the forecast area by morning. Although initially there will be dry air in place, expect an increase in moisture and lift late in the overnight hours. Expect a quick drop off in temperatures for the first half of the night with less cloud cover and drier air. Went on the cooler side of guidance for low temperatures overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Increased precipitation chances for the day on Wednesday as the upper level low pressure system approaches the area. Showers with isolated embedded thunder is expected. An initial push will move through during the morning and into the afternoon with additional scattered shower activity behind this first push of precipitation. Precipitation during this time will be somewhat diurnal with less coverage at night and more during the day. Cloudy and cool conditions will be quite prevalent through this time with high temperatures in the 60s and lows in the middle 40s to middle 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Closed upper low will be working gradually northward to SE Indiana on Friday. Showers will be likely in the moist and weakly unstable circulation around the upper low and its cold pool aloft, aided by low level convergence associated with an inverted surface trough. As the upper low continues to exhibit slow movement on a path to the central Great Lakes, a good chance of showers will persist through Saturday. When the low lifts farther to the northeast on Sunday, decreasing moisture and forcing will be evident. There will be a slight chance of showers in shallow residual moisture. Dry weather appears in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday under high pressure at the surface and aloft. Expect below normal highs in the 60s Friday and Saturday under clouds, precip, and low geopotential heights. A rebound back into the 70s should be noted by Tuesday in a regime of warm advection and insolation.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mostly clear skies will continue through the afternoon across the area, with just a few VFR Cu for northern sites. A large and pronounced stacked low pressure system will continue to drift south from the Great Lakes area into the Ohio Valley through the TAF period. For this afternoon, a tightening of the pressure gradient will combine with efficient mixing to allow winds to gust to 25-30kts for northern sites of KDAY, KCMH, and KLCK, with gusts to 20-25kts possible elsewhere. These west/southwesterly gusts will be diurnally-driven, with a fast drop off expected towards 23z as temperatures begin to cool with the approach of sunset. Between 00z-12z Wednesday, moisture will gradually be on the increase as the low moves south from the Great Lakes. Past 12z, dynamic lift will increase in association with upper- level energy rotating around the low pressure system. As such, expect showers will develop and move west to east from mid- morning through early afternoon. Expect a quasi- linear cluster of showers to move east through terminal sites toward 18z, with best chance of showers for eastern sites of KCMH and KLCK. Additional (re)development is possible during the afternoon and early evening hours behind (farther west of) initial activity. While VFR conditions are anticipated through the majority of the TAF period, some brief MVFR CIGs/VSBYs are possible in heaviest shower activity Wednesday. Slight model differences on location and timing of activity precludes anything other than a VCSH at this time. While instby will be on the increase after 18z, expect potential isolated TS development to be fairly limited. OUTLOOK...Local MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible with showers on Wednesday. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible. Widespread MVFR ceilings with local MVFR visibilities possible with showers Thursday through Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...KC

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