Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 182049 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 349 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers and thunderstorms will continue into early evening as a strong cold front pushes through the region. Precipitation will then taper off overnight as a much cooler airmass settles into the region for Sunday into Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The surface low is moving into far northwest Ohio attm with the attendent cold front extending southwest from it across central Indiana and into far southeast Illinois. The front is forecast to sweep east across our area through early evening, As it does, the convective line along and ahead of the front will continue to overspread our area through late afternoon. These storms are being enhanced by a narrow band of marginal ML capes (generally less than 500 j/kg) advecting up into southern Indiana. The models continue to show this weakening as it progresses east into our area through early evening which may help limit the severe threat across our area. A period of heavy rain will also be likely with the storms. Overall, they should be progressive enough to limit widespread flooding concerns. However, the line does appear to be laying out a bit more west to east across our north. This is also in the area that received the heavier rain this morning, so will go ahead and continue with the flood watch and also expand it about a tier of counties to the south. A deformation axis back to the west across Illinois will pivot east across our area later this evening and into the early morning hours. This will lead to some lingering showers into tonight but they should taper off from the west later tonight as drier air works in from the west. Gradient winds out ahead of the front continue to be impressive with occasional winds gusts in excess of 40 knots occurring across our southern areas. The low level thermal fields off the NAM and GFS are both keeping pcpn mainly rain through the night over all but possibly our northwest. The cobb method is trying to show a mix developing up across our northwest later this evening possibly working east through the overnight hours and this may be more representative given the good CAA developing in the low levels. Will therefore go ahead and at least allow for a rain snow mix for a brief period before tapering off the pops overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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We will remain in weak cyclonic flow and low level CAA through much of the day on Sunday as a secondary mid level short wave pivots across the region. There will be a fetch off of Lake Michigan but moisture will generally be limited to below 850 mb. This could lead to a few snow showers through early afternoon, especially across northern portions of our area. In the CAA, expect highs on Sunday only in the mid to possibly upper 30s. Surface high pressure will build in from the southwest Sunday night allowing the low level flow to begin to back. This should allow for clearing skies Sunday night with lows dropping down into the mid 20s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Surface high pressure will push off the the east through the day on Monday. As we start to get into some return flow, temperatures will begin to moderate with highs rising into the mid to upper 40s. Short wave energy rotating across the upper Great Lakes will help push a cold front southeast across our area Tuesday into Tuesday night. Moisture is limited with this so will maintain a dry forecast at this point. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. We will remain in a northwest flow pattern through the end of the week. There are some timing and placement differences between the models with weak energy dropping down toward the area through Friday. However, the airmass will remain relatively dry with the next chance of pcpn not until some stronger energy drops down from the northwest heading into Saturday.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... An intense line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front will push east across the TAf sites through late afternoon and into early this evening. These storms will produce heavy rainfall with cigs/vsbys likely dropping to VLIFR for a period of time. Ahead of the front, southerly gradient winds will continue to produce sustained winds in the 20-30 knot range with a few gusts up close to 40 knots. As the line of storms comes through, wind gusts in excess of 40 knots will be possible with any stronger storm. Given the strong flow at and just above the surface, will also hang on to a mention of LLWS through early evening. Once the cold front moves through, winds will swing around to the west-northwest with wind gusts up to around 40 knots persisting through the evening. Some showers will also likely linger into the overnight hours before tapering off as some drier air works in from the west. Will continue with MVFR cigs through the remainder of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. Flood Watch until midnight EST tonight for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046. KY...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for KYZ089>100. IN...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...JGL

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