Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 241417 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1017 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION FOR ONE MORE DAY. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...MOIST...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ALOFT TO BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY AS RIDGE AXIS POKES NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE A BIT THICKER THAN ANTICIPATED BUT RADAR ECHOES APPEAR TO SHOW PRECIP REMAINING ALOFT. IT WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S. DEPENDING ON HOW HIGH IT CAN MIX ALONG WITH A DRYING GROUND FROM LACK OF MOISTURE THIS MONTH...THERE COULD BE A FEW UPPER 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... HAVE USED A COMBINATION OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND SYNOPTIC MODELS FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER...A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS HAVE BEEN USED. FOR TONIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATE. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH A RETURN FLOW OF DEEPER MOISTURE. WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET POKING MORE INTO THE GREAT LAKES...THE PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD STAY TO OUR WEST IN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND SUBTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S. ON MONDAY...A S/WV AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ARE FORECAST TO PIVOT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER MS RIVER VLY WHILE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO NUDGE SLOWLY EAST. DEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION WITH A LOW TO MID LEVEL TROF AXIS PIVOTING ACRS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE LACK OF STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED WITH POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL TIGHTEN. IN FACT...SOME WIND GUSTS ACRS OUR NW ZONES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE WHILE IN THE SOUTHEAST THEY WILL BE AROUND 20 MPH. AM NOT LOOKING FOR SVR WX...HOWEVER... WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD EXHIBIT SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OUTSIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE GUSTS. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S ONCE AGAIN. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...S/WV AND LOW WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO SRN ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST THAT POPS WILL DECREASE ACRS THE NRN/WRN ZONES DURING THE EVENING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REMAINING ACRS THE ERN/SERN ZONES. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER S/WV WILL PIVOT NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. MODELS INDICATE THAT A MORE FOCUSED LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A RESULT...HAVE RAMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY BY LATER IN THE DAY. SPC HAS THE SW PART OF THE CWFA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS WITH A MARGINAL RISK OUT SIDE OF THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACH LOW END MODERATE...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS STILL IN QUESTION GIVEN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. IN FACT...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE EXHIBITING TALL SKIN CAPE PROFILES...INDICATIVE OF THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE LACKING GIVEN SKINNY CAPE IN THE -10 C TO -30 C RANGE. IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS...THEN THERE WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. WILL MAKE A MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING HEAVY RAIN BUT SINCE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK...THE THREAT FOR FLOODING SHOULD BE LOW. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE S/WV PASSING TO THE NORTH AND WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY AND FORCING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK S/WV WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...WITH COVERAGE HIGHEST DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 50S NW TO THE MID 60S SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE EAST COAST RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING A BIT MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF PCPN PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH ANY CIG REMAINING ABOVE 10KFT. LIGHT/SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING WILL VEER AND INCREASE BY LATER IN THE MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS TOWARD 16-18KTS BY MID AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN SSWLY. AFTER WINDS BACK AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING...ARRIVING LOW LEVEL JET WILL INDUCE SOME INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE A STEADY INCREASE IN WINDS/GUSTS FOR MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH A PUSH OF MOISTURE THAT WILL LIKELY BRING BETTER CLOUD COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT STILL EXPECT VFR CIGS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE SITES ON MONDAY MORNING WITH THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE...AND HAVE INDICATED A VCSH IN THE CVG 30 HOUR PORTION OF THE TAF. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...BINAU

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