Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 200855 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 455 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A FRONTAL ZONE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV ARE EXITING THE EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. A COUPLE OF STRAY SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP TO THE WEST BUT THESE ARE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE. THE TRUE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT STILL APPEARS TO LIE OVER WESTERN INDIANA. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE SCIOTO VALLEY BY MIDDAY...AND MAY SERVE AS THE IMPETUS FOR RENEWED SHOWERS AND STORMS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT TIME LOCATION THESE MAY FORM...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY BASED ROUGHLY ON RECENT HIGH RES RUNS. AN AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING WILL LIKELY KEEP THE WESTERN CWA DRY. THERE IS A SLIGHT SUPPRESSION OF THE THERMAL FIELDS BEHIND THE FRONT...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN TUESDAY BUT STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN WITH DIGGING ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TROUGHING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AT THE SURFACE...AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SUBTLE DISTURBANCES DROP THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL JETS IMPINGE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN INSERTED THURSDAY AS MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND STRONG THETA-E AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES ABOUT HOW SOON THIS WILL ONSET ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE SEVERAL WAVES OF STORMS WHICH TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DESPITE INCREASED SHEAR...INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED BY ONGOING CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES...SO THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT MAY NOT BE TOO IMPRESSIVE. FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SPECIFIC FEATURES BECOME LESS DISCERNIBLE...ALTHOUGH GREATER CHANCES FOR STORMS SHOULD BE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COULD LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOPO THROUGH THE PERIOD. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME LOW 90S CREEP IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST. DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL RESULT IN MUGGY CONDITIONS AND HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST BOTH DAY. AFTER SOME UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL HOLD LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MANY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT THE ILN AREA ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE. IN THIS REGIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND THE AIRMASS WILL BE HUMID. THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS LEADING TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A VERY SIMILAR UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL PRODUCE GOOD CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO SHORT WAVE FORCING. THE UPPER RIDGE MAY SAG SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESS FORECASTS POINT TO THE WARMEST WEATHER WE WILL EXPERIENCE THIS SUMMER. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...WITH HIGHER READINGS TENDING TO BE IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE SUNSHINE SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING. TSRA WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND WILL AFFECT THE KCVG...KLUK AND KILN TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. KDAY IS ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF CONVECTION. HAVE GONE WITH VCTS AT KCMH/KLCK BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. LOW LEVEL FORCING MAY WEAKEN BY THE TIME STORMS GET THIS FAR EAST BUT WILL AMEND THESE TAFS IF NECESSARY. WITH RECENT RAIN AND CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE WEST TOWARD SUNRISE...MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRATUS AND SOME FOG MAY FORM. BEST CHANCE IS WHERE IT WILL RAIN THE MOST AND HAVE PLACED SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KCVG...KLUK AND KILN. STORMS WILL EXIT EAST OF KCMH/KLCK BY 12Z WHILE FOG/STRATUS DISSIPATE THROUGH 15Z. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR ERN REGION BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NEAR KCMH/KLCK BEFORE IT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SO HAVE LEFT THE TERMINALS DRY. REGION SHOULD BE MAINLY CONVECTION FREE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS FRONT LAYS OUT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY TONIGHT. STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION AFTER 06Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET TRIES TO KICK IN. HAVE PLACED A VCTS/CB AT THE KCVG 30 HOUR TERMINAL FOR NOW. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SNYDER NEAR TERM...SNYDER SHORT TERM...SNYDER LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...HICKMAN

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