Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 200027 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 827 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE...AND THEN PRECIPITATION SPREADS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT KEEPING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... WITH NEUTRAL AND THEN WAA BEGINNING OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SEASONAL LOWS TO EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEST...WITH UPR 30S EAST WITH MORE CLEARING AHEAD OF THE HIGH CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THE APPROACHING S/WV AND LL FLOW STILL FROM THE SE IN THIS AREA. HAVE KEPT OFF THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE DRIER LOW/MID LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WELL OFF TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY MON MORNING AND THE TROUGH ON OUR DOORSTEP BY 12Z. AM SIDING WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS WHICH DONT BRING IN PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER 12Z WITH SOME LACK OF LL MOISTURE. BETTER ISENT LIFT DOESNT GET INTO FCST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z...WITH THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE NRN FCST AREA INTO THE DAY. FOR MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPR TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND SLOWING DOWN OVER THE EASTERN GRT LAKES. THIS WILL LINGER PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH AMPLE CLOUDS. AS THE PRECIPITATION TRIES TO PULL EAST MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPR LOW SO AM KEEPING CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A RETURN OF SOME GOOD FETCH OFF WARM LAKE MI...SO HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED/ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR WESTERN FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE FLOW BECOMES MORE DUE NORTHERLY AND THE CHANCES DIMINISH AREA WIDE. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH WITH COMPLETELY PULLING OUT PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST...AS WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION (OR LACK THEREOF) OF THE UPR LOW. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW WITH A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION AND A MEAN TROF OVER THE EAST COAST TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF TO OUR EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY. FLOW AROUND THIS LOW WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. EXPECT MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO BE EAST OF ILN/S FA WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURG THE DAY. EXPECT WED/S HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. UPPER LOW TO TRANSLATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC BUILDING INTO THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP ILN/S FA DRY WITH EMBEDDED S/W TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME MODERATION THROUGH THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 30S ON WED AND THURS NIGHTS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FROST FORMATION. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION IN THE GRIDS AND HWO PRODUCT. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH SOME MODERATION ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. NORTHERN PORTION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OHIO VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND AND ACTIVE WEATHER TO STAY WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... GOING TAFS WERE WELL TRENDED. CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z TO 15Z. TOWARD SUNRISE SOME HIGH-BASED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP IN A SCATTERED FASHION OVER SERN IND/NRN KY/SRN OH AND SPREAD QUICKLY EAST. THESE SHOULD MOSTLY FALL OUT OF A 8-10KFT ALTOSTRATUS DECK...SO EXPECT NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS OR CIG ISSUES. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SW...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20KTS LIKELY AT ALL AIRFIELDS. BY ABOUT 16Z...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF KDAY AND SPREAD QUICKLY TOWARD KCMH/KLCK...WHERE PREVAILING VFR -SHRA HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE MAY ALSO AFFECT ILN/CVG/DAY/LUK BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH RIGHT NOW TO GO BEYOND VFR CIGS/VSBY. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS IN THE AT KCMH/KLCK...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW. ALSO OUTSIDE THREAT FOR MVFR CIGS IN THE 30 HOUR PORTION OF CVG TAF AS FURTHER MOISTENING OCCURS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. .OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR/SITES NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...BINAU

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