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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 171758
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
158 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINGERING DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE THROUGH LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE DESTABILIZE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH IN AREA OF
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE. FORCING REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK
THOUGH...SO ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE 17.00Z GFS AND THE 16.12Z ECMWF FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST AS THEY SEEM TO DEPICT THE MOVEMENT OF THE
APPROACHING UPR LVL LOW THAN THE NAM/CMC. HAVE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT
THE GFS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AS WELL.

FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN UPR LVL LOW WILL SLOW PUSH INTO THE
OUR REGION...HUGGING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL OSCILLATE AND INTERACT
WITH THIS UPR LVL FEATURE. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DECREASE IN
CONVECTION THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH
PERHAPS AN UPTICK ACRS THE FAR SWRN CWFA TOWARD MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW. ON SATURDAY...THE COMBINATION OF
THE UPR LOW ACRS THE SOUTH WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS  THERE WITH DECREASING CHANCES TO THE NORTH.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...UPR LVL LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND OPEN UP AS A WAVE WHILE IT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN SATURDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A MID LVL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WHILE THE WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. HAVE ALLOWED THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO END EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE HELD DOWN SOME ON SATURDAY
DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE RAIN THREAT...PEAKING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
70S. ON SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST TO
THE LOWER 80S WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FA ON MONDAY HOWEVER BELIEVE THAT THE COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOW AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL HAVE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
EARLIER LOW CLOUDS HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO MORE OF A DIURNAL CU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO...BUT EXPECT THESE TO LIFT UP INTO VFR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO. MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDS AND PCPN IS ROTATING UP
ACROSS KENTUCKY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
CLOUDS...THE AIRMASS HAS DESTABILIZED AND THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST INTO FAR
NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KCVG/KLUK.
WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE CU FIELD FARTHER
NORTH...STRETCHING FROM NEAR KMIE TO AROUND KILN AND WE MAY
EVENTUALLY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS POP UP ALONG THIS LINE TOO. THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT TO
SEE THEM DIE OFF THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS
OUR SOUTH...WOULD EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS TO
BE AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. WILL INCLUDE SOME MVFR BR LATER
TONIGHT AT THE TAF SITES TOO...BUT THIS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT
ON HOW MANY BREAKS EXIST IN THE CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL