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622
FXUS61 KILN 100812
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
412 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A fast moving upper disturbance will pass across the area early
this morning. High pressure will briefly build in during the
day. A trough of low pressure will swing across the region late
tonight into Saturday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Positively tilted upper trough is sliding across the region
early this morning. Showers are occurring out ahead of this
feature which will all pass east of the area toward daybreak.

Clouds will decrease in the wake of the trough and surface
ridging will extending into the region this afternoon. It will
be cooler with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Next short wave in active northwest flow will approach the
region late tonight and move across the area on Saturday,
deepening as it does. Surface low associated with this will stay
well north of the area, but a well defined trough (not really a
cold front as it will be warmer once this passes) extending
from the parent low will cross the area. A band of showers,
possibly with some embedded thunder, will occur just ahead of
this trough, developing southward as the entire system moves
east.

Will once again see an improvement in sky condition once this
system passes. But cannot rule out some additional isolated to
scattered showers or thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon,
generally in central Ohio where it will be a bit unstable due
to the juxtaposition of cooler temperatures aloft and surface
heating.

It will be a cool night with most places falling into the mid to
upper 40s. But some warming will occur on Saturday with highs
in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure tracking across Tennessee will provide dry weather
Saturday night and Sunday. A cold front developing to the northwest
will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms that may move in
Monday afternoon. Potent low pressure moving up the boundary from
the southwest is forecast to bring numerous to widespread showers
and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Lingering moisture to the southeast
may allow a few showers on Wednesday and Thursday.

Highs Sunday are expected to reach the low and mid 70s in the
circulation around high pressure, with mid and upper 70s forecast
for Monday in the increasing southwest flow ahead of the cold front.
A retreat to the upper 60s to mid 70s is indicated for Tuesday
behind the front, before temperatures rise through the 70s Wednesday
and the mid 70s to around 80 on Thursday under renewed warm
advection.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ceilings will be improving during the early part of the period
becoming VFR areawide before 12Z. Clouds will then scatter out
with just a few clouds late in the period. North winds will
persist around 10 kt until towards 00Z when then will decrease
and back.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings area possible late tonight into Saturday
morning. MVFR ceiling and visibilities as well as thunderstorms
possible Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...