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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 170541
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
141 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION. STILL A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER ALL BUT THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THESE TO DECREASE AS WELL. WITH
LIGHT WINDS THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN AREAS THAT
HAD HEAVIER RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE DAY. WITH UNCERTAINTY HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. USED A MOS BLEND FOR FORECAST
LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED AND LIFT NORTH A LITTLE DURING THE DAY. SHOULD SEE
CONVECTION DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AGAIN THERE WILL BE LITTLE LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT. SO THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PRIMARILY BE DIURNAL WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SOME MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY START TO
SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS A
STACKED LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. MOS SEEMED REASONABLE FOR HIGHS
BUT WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER AROUND THE FA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FA ON MONDAY HOWEVER BELIEVE THAT THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LOW AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE.  ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION.  MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL HAVE THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW IN
CONFIDENCE...WITH NUMEROUS COMPLICATIONS AND POTENTIAL IMPACT TO
AVIATION.

OVERNIGHT...PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTRIBUTE TO FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. IN GENERAL...FOG SEEMS
TO BE FAVORED OVER THE AREA...WITH MORE AND MORE LOCATIONS
(INCLUDING THE ILN AND LUK TAF SITES) SHOWING 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITIES. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR THE COLUMBUS
TAF SITES...WHERE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SO...THE TAFS
ARE RATHER PESSIMISTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THOUGH ONLY
MVFR AT KDAY.

THE IMPACTS OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE DURING THE
MORNING...BUT EVENTUALLY...A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT THE
CINCINNATI TAF SITES...WHERE VCTS IS IN THE FORECAST. TIMING FOR
ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...THOUGH SOME COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE THREAT FOR
RAIN/STORMS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR CINCINNATI.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS