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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 151809
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
209 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXTEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND LINGER BETWEEN THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND THE
OHIO RIVER THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINE OF CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO.
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
OUR FA. THE 12Z ILN SOUNDING WAS VERY WARM WITH 19 DEGREES CELSIUS
AT 850 MB. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE 90S...BUT 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY FORECAST TO DROP OFF TO AROUND 14-15
DEGREES CELSIUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...CURRENT TEMP
FORECAST OF MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S SEEMS REASONABLE. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR GOOD INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AS WE HEAD INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ML CAPES UP INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE.
HOWEVER...WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A CAP THROUGH
AT EAST EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY WHY THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF MODEL DISCREPANCIES AS TO HOW SOON CONVECTION WILL
INITIATE LATER TODAY...IF AT ALL. WOULD THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING TO GET GOING WILL BE CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTH AND PRETTY LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN
DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DID NOT RAMP UP THE SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER 0Z AND ONLY NUDGED THEM
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH THE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL KEEP
SHOWERS FORMING ALONG IT. IF WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WERE MORE
SOUTHERLY I COULD SEE SOME OF THESE STORMS APPROACHING SEVERE
LIMITS. THIS IS NOT THE CASE AS 925 WINDS ARE ALMOST DUE WEST AND
IT IS THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THAT PROVIDES MOST OF THE
CONVERGENCE THAT THE STORMS ARE GOING TO USE TO GET
INITIATED...LET ALONE DEEPEN TO SEVERE LIMITS.

FRONT WILL LINGER NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A NARROW FOCUS IN THIS
AREA...SPILLING SOUTH OF THE OHIO AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
AT TIMES.

NO REAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS BEING SHOWN TO PUSH THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN INTO THE CATEGORICAL PERIOD AT THIS TIME NOR INDICATE A REAL
THREAT FOR SEVERE LIMITS TO BE REACHED.

THE MOIST AIRMASS AND PROXIMITY OF THE RAIN WITH THE FRONT WILL
KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS MILD TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 AND LIMIT
DAYTIME HIGHS AFTER TODAY TO THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A FOCUS FOR PRIMARILY DIURNAL CONVECTION.

APPEARS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WILL STILL BE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE. AT THIS POINT EXPECT MONDAY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THEN A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN PUSHING SLOWLY
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT OF ENHANCEMENT
DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO WITH THE PCPN MOVING INTO CENTRAL
OHIO...BUT EVEN THOSE SEEM TO BE HAVING A TOUGH TIME SUSTAINING
THEMSELVES. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO SOME WARM AIR ALOFT THAT IS
PROVIDING A CAP. AS WE CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE BOUNDARY SAGS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH....WE MAY
EVENTUALLY SEE SOME BETTER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FA. THESE STORMS WOULD THEN LIKELY PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT AS WE LOSE SOME OF
THE INSTABILITY. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THOUGH BETWEEN
THE MODELS AS TO EXACTLY HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT. THINK THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS EVENING
AND WILL TREND TAFS ACCORDINGLY. WILL THEN ALLOW FOR A BREAK IN
PCPN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE SOME POSSIBLE
REDEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL