-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
606
FXUS61 KILN 081546
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1146 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A narrow ridge of high pressure will offer fair and warm
conditions through most of today before a disturbance brings a
return of showers and thunderstorms late in the day extending
into Thursday morning. Cool high pressure will provide dry
weather to close the work week before a fast-moving system
moving through the Great Lakes brings showers on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Updated the pops for this afternoon through tonight with a
model blend that approximated current thinking. This generally
slowed the onset of precip but was an overall minor change. With
regards to severe potential, added a chance of severe in the
forecast for much of northern KY and far southeast IN. Threat
should diminish a few hours before daybreak. Later forecasts
will take a deeper dive on timing and severe potential.

SPC day 1 outlook morning update pulled enhanced area
south/southwest and out of the CWA. That area was where severe
potential tonight is noted in previous paragraph.

WPC has southern/southwest CWA in a slight chance for excessive
rainfall tonight. Combined with last night`s rain, a
significantly deep moist atmosphere, and expected thunderstorms,
a flash flood watch has been issued for the southern 1/2 of CWA.

Main concern for this watch is a narrow corridor running from
south of Wilmington to the Ohio River, then northwest through
metro Cincy and following I-74 through Indiana. Rainfall along
the I-74 corridor into Cincinnati was quite high, with reports
of 2-4" quite common and more than a handful over 3".

Southwest mid-level flow ahead of a persistent Western U.S.
trough will continue the warm and humid pattern today. A
shortwave will eject northeast into the middle Mississippi
Valley by the end of the period, bringing increasing clouds.
Isolated showers and storms may begin to develop toward the end
of the period near and south of the Ohio River along a
developing warm front.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Some high-res guidance shows the potential for a few strong to
severe thunderstorms along the warm front to start the period
this evening. While hodographs remain rather straight, bulk
shear near 50 knots will be more than enough to allow for deep
cores with a large hail and damaging wind risk.

Later this evening into the overnight period, the shortwave will
shift east. This will bring a wave of low pressure and a
trailing cold front into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Recent
trends shift the bulk of the strong to severe convection
further south, probably even south of our CWA. At any rate,
there will likely be a large shield of showers and embedded
storms moving through our CWA overnight.

The cold front will clear our area to the east on Thursday with
cooler and dry air finally arriving late in the day. Highs to
the north will remain in the 60s but will still reach into the
70s south of Interstate 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper level trough will settle over the region through the
weekend, bringing cooler temperatures to the Ohio Valley. An
embedded weak mid level short wave will drop down through the area
on Friday and this could lead to a few afternoon showers. A stronger
mid level short wave will pivot across the area on Saturday,
bringing a better chance for showers and a chance of thunderstorms.
Surface high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley for Sunday
with mostly dry conditions expected. Temperatures will remain below
normal through the weekend with daytime highs mainly in the 60s.

We will transition to a more zonal flow pattern aloft through early
next week with daytime highs back into the 80s Monday and Tuesday.
Some embedded mid level energy will lead to some lower end chances
for showers and a few thunderstorms both days.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Patches of stratus have developed near the Dayton and Columbus
terminals early this morning. Due to the scattered nature of the
low clouds, expecting burn off to occur rather quickly.

Otherwise, fair conditions will occur through much of the day
under a narrow ridge of high pressure. The next disturbance will
arrive very late this afternoon into tonight. Initially,
scattered storms are possible along a developing warm front near
the Cincinnati terminals. After this, there should be an
increasing coverage of rain showers with embedded storms
overnight. MVFR cloud bases are likely to develop during the
widespread rain late.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGs possible into Thursday morning and
again on Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday
     morning for OHZ070>073-077>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday
     morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday
     morning for INZ066-073>075-080.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...