National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 141513
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1113 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The ridge of high pressure has moved east of the region, allowing
for return flow to begin to usher in much warmer air to the
region. A few storms will be possible in central Ohio this
evening into overnight and then again in parts of northern
Kentucky on Monday. Much above normal temperatures are expected
through most of the week, with episodic showers and storms
through at least midweek. Cooler and drier conditions should
return by next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Northwest flow aloft with shortwave and surface low pressure
passing well north of the area thru the Great Lakes. WAA to take
place today ahead of an associated surface cold front that slips
into northern Ohio this evening. Some mid and high level clouds
along with scattered cumulus clouds will result partly sunny sky
conditions today.

Breezy conditions will develop with southwest winds of 15 to 20
mph and gusts of 30 to 35 mph at times. Under the influence of
strong WAA - much warmer air will move into the area with highs
mainly in the upper 70s. A few 80 degree readings may even be
possible, along and south of the Ohio River.

Drier air aloft is forecast to move into the area which will
steepen midlevel lapse rates to in excess of 8 deg C/KM and
increase deeper layer instby. Expect SBCAPES of 1000-1500 J/KG
across areas north of of I-70 this afternoon. With a strong cap
in place expect convective development to hold off across all
but the far north late in the day.

There looks to be the potential for some overlap of the moderate
instby, and sufficient deep layer shear to suggest that a few
of the storms could be strong to severe mainly over ILN/s
northeast counties late in the day into thru this evening. The
main impacts will be damaging winds with favorable DCAPES >1000
J/kg and large hail due to the steep midlevel lapse rates.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The aforementioned sagging frontal boundary will continue its
southward crawl early Monday morning, eventually making it into
N KY or near the OH Rvr. S of the front, the presence of more
ample LL moisture amidst daytime heating should allow for
robust diurnally-driven destabilization and perhaps for the
development of ISO TSRA in central KY, potentially grazing the
far srn parts of the ILN FA during the afternoon. It is worth
noting that on Monday, the LL wind fields should be much weaker
than will be the case today. The question that remains, once
again, is the presence of a cap and relatively meager
forcing/lift, both of which may limit TSRA development/coverage
to more of an isolated or spotty nature. But... if a few storms
are able to develop/mature Monday afternoon, a
conditional/localized severe threat (hail/wind) may evolve in
parts of central/N KY.

Highs Monday will range from the mid 70s in WC and central oH to
the lower 80s in N KY. Extensive early day cloud cover is
expected near the OH Rvr close to the front, with some
scattering and more sunshine expected by the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A northwest to southeast oriented warm front will move northeast
through the Ohio Valley overnight and early Tuesday. GFS is the most
robust generator of shower and tstorm activity under this feature.
Only the ECMWF in a reasonable agreement, and this just for Tuesday
during the day. Forecast builder is and has been the strongest
supporter of this solution. As this incorporates a significant
amount of ensemble data, the lack of a deterministic unification is
not terribly significant at this time.

Showers and some thunderstorms will move northeast during the day
and quickly give way to drier air in its wake. That is until later
overnight when deep layer moisture gets advected in on strong
southerly winds, particularly in the western half of the CWA between
midnight and daybreak. Activity wanes in the early morning, then
ramps up Wednesday afternoon as the cold front approaches exiting to
the east by midnight with the frontal passage. Stronger storms and
heavy rainfall will be found with the storms on Wednesday.

Forecast builder seems to be too generous with regard to rainfall
Thursday evening and overnight. This does not seem to be supported
by the evolution of the models over the past few nights. While a
lower confidence regarding occurrence of showers/storms during this
time, still left the higher chance pops given.

Pops on Friday and overnight remain possible, though the GFS and
European are significantly different in how any weather is generated
given the mass fields. They do come in line on Saturday with colder
air on northwest winds, clearing out any precip.

Highs in the 70s Tues and Wed will drop to the mid 60s and low 70s
Thursday, upper 50s to mid 60s Friday, and slightly below climo in
the 55-60 range Saturday. Overnight lows will follow a similar
trend. 50s Monday night rising to low 60s Tues night. Dropping to
low 50s Wed night, near 50 Thurs night, and low 40s Fri night. While
forecast doesn`t go out to the next period, current guidance shows
mid to upper 30s for overnight Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FEW/SCT mid clouds will move through the area during the
heart of the morning hours. Some Cu development is expected very
late in the day near/N of I-70 for KDAY/KCMH/KLCK close to 00z
as a front sags S into the area during the evening hours. Still
some uncertainties regarding convective coverage along the front
itself, but data continues to suggest the best potential for a
few TSRA will be near KDAY/KCMH/KLCK between about 01z-06z. But
certainly some activity may be possible near KILN between
03z-06z as well. Did not have confidence to go beyond a VCTS at
this point, but a TEMPO TSRA may eventually be warranted,
especially at KCMH/KLCK, should trends indicate slightly better
coverage of TSRA.

VFR CIGs will be maintained until close to 12z Monday where some
MVFR CIGs will be possible as the front continues to shift S.
The best potential for MVFR CIGs will be near KILN/KCVG/KLUK
between about 11z-15z.

Light southerly flow early in the TAF period will abruptly increase
through the morning hours, becoming gusty after about 14z-15z
or so. SW winds of 15-20kts, with gusts of 25-30kts, are
expected late morning through mid afternoon before slowly
subsiding a bit into early evening. Light/VRB winds should exist
near the front itself around 06z before winds go out of the NE
at 5-10kts by 12z Monday (progressively from N to S).

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Tuesday into Wednesday night.
Brief MVFR CIGs possible Monday morning. MVFR conditions are
also possible Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...KC