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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 151439
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1039 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXTEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND LINGER BETWEEN THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND THE
OHIO RIVER THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LINE OF CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO.
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
OUR FA. THE 12Z ILN SOUNDING WAS VERY WARM WITH 19 DEGREES CELSIUS
AT 850 MB. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE 90S...BUT 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY FORECAST TO DROP OFF TO AROUND 14-15
DEGREES CELSIUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...CURRENT TEMP
FORECAST OF MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S SEEMS REASONABLE. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR GOOD INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AS WE HEAD INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ML CAPES UP INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE.
HOWEVER...WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A CAP THROUGH
AT EAST EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY WHY THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF MODEL DISCREPANCIES AS TO HOW SOON CONVECTION WILL
INITIATE LATER TODAY...IF AT ALL. WOULD THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING TO GET GOING WILL BE CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTH AND PRETTY LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN
DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DID NOT RAMP UP THE SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER 0Z AND ONLY NUDGED THEM
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH THE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL KEEP
SHOWERS FORMING ALONG IT. IF WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WERE MORE
SOUTHERLY I COULD SEE SOME OF THESE STORMS APPROACHING SEVERE
LIMITS. THIS IS NOT THE CASE AS 925 WINDS ARE ALMOST DUE WEST AND
IT IS THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THAT PROVIDES MOST OF THE
CONVERGENCE THAT THE STORMS ARE GOING TO USE TO GET
INITIATED...LET ALONE DEEPEN TO SEVERE LIMITS.

FRONT WILL LINGER NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A NARROW FOCUS IN THIS
AREA...SPILLING SOUTH OF THE OHIO AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
AT TIMES.

NO REAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS BEING SHOWN TO PUSH THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN INTO THE CATEGORICAL PERIOD AT THIS TIME NOR INDICATE A REAL
THREAT FOR SEVERE LIMITS TO BE REACHED.

THE MOIST AIRMASS AND PROXIMITY OF THE RAIN WITH THE FRONT WILL
KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS MILD TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 AND LIMIT
DAYTIME HIGHS AFTER TODAY TO THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A FOCUS FOR PRIMARILY DIURNAL CONVECTION.

APPEARS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WILL STILL BE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE. AT THIS POINT EXPECT MONDAY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THEN A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. MID CLOUDS THAT HAD
BEEN AFFECTING CMH/LCK ARE NOW WORKING TO THE E. LOW PRESSURE
CENTER MOVG THRU THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL PULL A CDFNT INTO THE
REGION. MODEL TIME SERIES ARE INDICATING THAT THE CU WILL BE LATE
TO DEVELOP...WAITING UNTIL AFT 18-20Z WHEN THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE REGION. SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE VCTS AT KDAY/KCMH/KLCK AT
21Z. THE FNT WILL SAG FARTHER SOUTH DURING WED NGT...BUT IN
GENERAL WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAFS...SO HAVE VCTS IN ALL THE TAFS
AFT 00Z.

INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH MIXING OF H8 JET WILL
KEEP WINDS GUSTY TODAY. HAVE GUSTS AROUND 25KTS...BUT A COUPLE
COULD APPROACH 30 KNOTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY 00Z SO WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SITES