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513
FXUS61 KILN 140138
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
938 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will slowly track across the Ohio Valley
through Wednesday, brining unsettled weather to the region. Dry
weather returns Thursday with high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Only subtle adjustments were made to the ongoing fcst for the
near term period. Pockets of light SHRA will slowly expand in
coverage as we progress toward/beyond midnight and especially as
we get closer to daybreak. Activity for the overnight period
should be light in nature as the column slowly saturates from S
to N through the period. Total rainfall through daybreak should
generally be a tenth of an inch or less, with isolated higher
pockets possible.

The extensive cloud cover and influx of deeper-layer and LL
moisture will translate into a much warmer night than has been
the case the past several days as temps only dip into the upper
50s and lower 60s area-wide.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
For tonight, a mid level low pressure system will slowly move
from western Missouri to central Missouri. However, a mid level
disturbance will eject northeast ahead of this main low into our
region. This disturbance will be located in a regime of
increasing deeper moisture and some low level forcing associated
with a modest low level jet. This will result in numerous to
widespread shower activity as it pivots northeast through the
region. An isolated thunderstorm may occur as well. Clouds,
higher humidity, and southerly flow will keep temperatures warm
in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Lead mid level disturbance will rotate northeast out of our
area Tuesday morning. This will then be followed by the main low
pressure system as it slowly moves east into Indiana. We may
get a brief respite in pcpn chances from about mid morning into
early afternoon. Then, large scale ascent, diurnal instability,
and weak low level lift will bring high chances for showers and
thunderstorms from west to east from mid afternoon into the
evening hours. MLCAPEs will be just under 1000 J/kg, and overall
deep layer shear will be weak, so not much is expected in the
way of severe storms. However, locally gusty winds and small
hail can not be ruled out. In addition, with PWATs approaching
1.50 inches, and with the prospect of slower moving
storms/training, there will be some threat of localized
flooding. Will continue to mention that in the HWO. Highs will
be kept down due to clouds and pcpn. They will range from the
lower 70s northwest to the mid/upper 70s southeast.

For Tuesday night, the mid level low will move into the middle
Ohio Valley. Showers and storms are forecast, but storms should
dwindle in probability as the night wanes as overall instability
decreases. Again, localized heavy rain will be possible which
could lead to some flooding issues. Lows will range from the mid
50s north to the lower 60s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
On Wednesday morning, a slowly-moving upper low will be
centered over the Ohio Valley, moving east through the area.
This upper low will also have an associated surface low, which
will generally remain stacked with the upper low. Surface flow
will be shifting to the north behind a front, though as the low
levels are cooling, the upper levels will also have some colder
air moving into the region. That may allow for some low-end
instability, and chances for thunder will be kept in the
forecast through Wednesday evening. Overall forcing is largely
expected to be associated with any remaining vorticity rotating
around the departing upper low, but chances will gradually
diminish from northwest to southeast in a general sense.

A very narrow ridge is expected to move into the area Thursday,
bringing drier conditions to the area. However, the forecast
has trended a little less pronounced with this ridge, indicating
that clouds and even some very low end precipitation chances
may remain for Thursday. Confidence is low in the pattern for
Friday and Saturday, as there remains model disagreement in the
amplitude and timing of the next upstream trough. Friday looks
quite likely to have rain in the area, but by Saturday, there
are conflicting signals on whether or not the system will be
pulling east, or if the deep-layer moisture transport in the
area ahead of the trough will still be in place.

As the pattern changes to something pseudo-zonal, weather may
remain somewhat unsettled heading into Sunday and Monday. The
forecast will contain low-end PoPs for both days.

Temperatures on Wednesday will be the coolest of the extended
forecast period, with highs in the lower 70s. This is near
normal. For the rest of the extended, temperatures will be on
the increase, with values reaching the 80s by Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An unsettled TAF period is on tap as several rounds of SHRA will
be possible through daybreak before a more widespread SHRA/TSRA
potential develops/expands by/past 18z area-wide. VFR CIGs
through at least 06z will transition to MVFR toward daybreak and
should linger through most of the daytime. Cannot completely
rule out brief IFR CIGs in the several hour period around
daybreak, nor can some brief VFR conditions be ruled out after
18z outside of SHRA/TSRA activity. But MVFR CIGs should prevail
for most of the daytime.

Some abrupt VSBY reductions will be possible in the heaviest
SHRA/TSRA activity, but have handled this with a prevailing MVFR
VSBY during the afternoon for now given the uncertainties in
time/location with heaviest activity toward the latter part of
the TAF period.

Light southerly winds through 06z will go more out of the SE,
and eventually ESE, beyond 18z. Non-convective winds should
generally stay 10kts or less through the period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR CIGs/VSBYs likely along with thunderstorms
tonight into Wednesday. MVFR CIGs/VSBYs are possible with thunderstorms
Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...KC/Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...KC