-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
028
FXUS61 KILN 131057
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
657 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and dry air will move off to the east today. Low
pressure tracking from the west will provide unsettled weather
Tuesday and Wednesday. Dry weather returns Thursday with high
pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure centered near the mid Atlantic Coast is forecast
to keep mainly dry weather over the ILN area today. Mid and
high moisture advection will allow increasing clouds. There will
be a low chance for showers and thunderstorms in far southwest
counties late this afternoon as low level moisture and
instability support isolated convective development there.
Winds from the south gusting to 20 mph this afternoon will help
boost high temperatures into the upper 70s to low 80s, 5 to 7
degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Low pressure will be getting organized over Missouri tonight,
before reaching Western Kentucky by late Tuesday. As moisture
and lift increase in the circulation ahead of the low, showers
will begin to impact the area tonight, with showers and a few
thunderstorms becoming widespread Tuesday afternoon. Have
backed off on timing of widespread showers relative to previous
model runs. Severe thunderstorm threat appears to be low due to
weak shear and relatively low CAPE under 1000 J/KG. Slow moving
cells, favorable thermodynamic profiles showing tall skinny
CAPE, and ample PWAT point to the possibility of heavy
downpours.

After mild lows around 60 tonight, readings reaching the near
normal low and mid 70s on Tuesday will be limited by clouds and
precip.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper low over Illinois at the beginning of the period will track
east and be off the mid Atlantic coast by Wednesday night.
Associated surface low will move across Kentucky, passing just south
of the forecast area. This will lead to showers and thunderstorms,
particularly Tuesday night while the upper system is over the area.
Precipitable water is forecast to rise to around 150 percent of
normal and weak wind fields will mean that individual precipitation
elements may not move much. So this could lead to some locally heavy
rainfall, although global ensemble systems have rather modest
probabilities of 1 inch or more of rain within 24 hours.

Heading into Wednesday, coverage and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms will likely decrease on the back side of the system,
although diurnal component will keep chances through the afternoon.
However, activity should quickly diminish by early Wednesday
evening.

High pressure will briefly build in for Thursday. But next trough
will already be approaching. Looks like a northern stream short wave
will pass across the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday with
lingering positively tilted trough extending into the southern
Plains will more gradually slide east. So surface low will track
north of the area, but trailing cold front will be somewhat slow to
pass through Thursday night through Friday night. There will be more
showers and thunderstorms associated with that. In the wake of this
system, high pressure will build in over the weekend.

Temperatures on Wednesday will be near normal. Otherwise, the period
will be characterized by slightly above normal readings with the
warmest days being over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Conditions will remain VFR through the early part of the
forecast as high pressure and dry air move east. Clouds will
increase through today while ceilings remain VFR. Winds
from the south will rise to 10 to 13 knots, with gusts around
20 knots possible this afternoon.

Conditions deteriorate quickly late in the forecast thanks to
low pressure advancing from the west. As moisture and lift
increase tonight, VCSH followed by -SHRA are forecast at all
sites. Once near surface air saturates, ceilings drop to MVFR,
and then IFR at CVG and LUK. Slight improvement back to MVFR is
possible at CVG near the end of their 30 hour TAF. Kept TS out
for now due to isolated nature.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities possible with
thunderstorms Wednesday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities
possible with thunderstorms Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Coniglio