Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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225 FXUS61 KILN 112325 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 725 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the central Great Lakes and middle Ohio Valley tonight. The high will then push east across the region Sunday into Sunday night. Clouds will increase on Monday. Showers and thunderstorm chances will increase Monday night into Tuesday ahead of the next low pressure system. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... A weak cold front/surface trof has pushed east of the forecast area this afternoon, taking pcpn chances with it. It will remain breezy to locally windy into this evening until diurnal cooling and a relaxing pressure gradient allow gusts to subside after 8 pm. For tonight, skies are forecast to become mostly clear as surface high pressure builds east into the central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The winds will continue to lighten up overnight. It will be cool with lows ranging from the lower to upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The surface ridge will move east across the region on Sunday. Mostly sunny skies are expected. A modifying and warming airmass will move in from the west during the day. This will allow temperatures to rise into the 70s for highs. For Sunday night, as the surface ridge moves east, a mid level ridge axis will move east into the middle Ohio Valley. Clouds will increase from the west overnight. Lows will be warmer, mainly in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... On Monday morning, ridging over the southeastern CONUS will be sliding off to the east, as an upstream trough (possibly with a closed low) moves into the middle Mississippi Valley by Tuesday morning. Deep-layer southerly flow ahead of this system will bring an increase in moisture, with showers beginning to move into the area by Monday afternoon, and a greater chance of widespread precipitation by Monday evening. As the upper trough slowly moves eastward across the Ohio Valley, there will be occasional chances for showers and storms through Wednesday, though both the upper low (and eventually open wave) and surface low will be weakening with time. A southward-moving cold front will follow into the region behind the surface low on Wednesday, providing drier and cooler air and ending the chances for precipitation by Wednesday night. Confidence in this part of the forecast is medium, with good confidence in the overall pattern, but still details to work out, particularly in timing the individual waves of forcing rotating around the trough. Some of the mesoscale details will help determine if there will be any severe or flood threats with this system, but there are no obvious signs of any major issues at this point. Some lower-end flood risk could develop whenever forcing and moisture transport maximize, perhaps on Tuesday. Ridging and surface high pressure will bring drier conditions on Thursday. Confidence is low in the pattern for Friday and Saturday, as there remains model disagreement in how quickly southerly flow and upstream troughing will return to the area. For now, will keep low chances for precipitation in on both days. Temperatures on Monday, ahead of the incoming system, will reach the mid 70s to around 80. Somewhat cooler conditions are expected for the next few days, before a warming trend begins again by the end of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A FEW/SCT diurnally-driven VFR Cu will linger about through the first several hours of the TAF period, especially at KCMH/KLCK where the clouds are expected to linger the longest before trending clear area-wide by/after 03z. For the overnight, sfc high pressure will build east into the central Great Lakes and middle Ohio Valley, allowing for gustiness to subside to 5kts or less. In fact, in sheltered locales, winds may go light/VRB/calm, including at KLUK where some river valley BR may lead to MVFR, or even brief IFR, VSBYs in the several hour period leading up to and around daybreak. After daybreak Sunday, winds will go more out of the WNW through the day (remaining 6-8kts or less), trending more westerly by the end of the period. A few cirrus will overspread the region during the day, with a few late-day VFR Cu possible near/W of the I-75 corridor. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions, along with thunderstorms, possible Monday night through Wednesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...KC