Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 311759 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 159 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL SPAWN SOME ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WHILE THE OVERALL TREND OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS FOR A H5 RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...MODELS ARE FORECASTING SOME WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS DIRTY PATTERN WILL ALLOW ENERGY TO SLIP ACROSS THE AREA TO INTERACT WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT HAS SETTLED OVER THE AREA. THE END RESULT WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IN THIS SUMMER LIKE PATTERN. WHILE WE HAVE SEEN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH FURTHER MIXING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS TO BE THE CASE. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT 20 POP ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED OTHER HOURLY GRIDS AS APPROPRIATE. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE ATTM. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE DIRTY PATTERN UNDER THE PREVAILING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL FORECAST 20 POPS FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR BOTH DAYS...MID TO UPPER 80S BY DAY AND MID TO UPPER 60S BY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDING EAST INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF ENHANCED FORCING. CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY FROM THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90 OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL INDIANA BORDER THROUGH 12Z WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR EAST. THEREAFTER...THE CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AIRMASS CHANGE BETWEEN TODAY AND TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. DUE TO THE WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC SCALE ENVIRONMENT...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOCUS WITH A SLOW MOVING NATURE NOTED TO THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE EMPLOYED VCTS/CB ONCE AGAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 01Z TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY QUICK DISSIPATION TO THE CONVECTION WITH SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR...LOCAL IFR...VISIBILITIES TO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. KLUK WILL SEE LOWER CONDITIONS (BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS) DUE TO RIVER FOG. ON TUESDAY...FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z...GIVING WAY TO SCT-BKN CUMULUS/MODERATE CUMULUS/CB ONCE AGAIN. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...TO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BINAU/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES/RAY SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HICKMAN

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