Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 100549 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1249 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME NARROW BANDS IN CENTRAL INDIANA THAT WILL AFFECT THE CINCINNATI TRI-STATE. ELSEWHERE IT APPEARS CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH JUST SOME FLURRIES. HOWEVER NEXT IMPULSE WILL START TO SPREAD IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHWEST VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT PRIMARILY FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TOMORROW. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COMBINATION OF FORCING FROM A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL PIVOT EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THAN EXPERIENCED TODAY (TUESDAY)...ESPECIALLY ALOFT IN THE 900MB-750MB LAYER...THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE INCREASED. THE COMBINATION OF FORCING AND STEEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA (CENTRAL OHIO) DURING THE 15Z-18Z TIME FRAME...WHERE SOME HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE. IT IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO DRAW A UNIFORM SNOW TOTAL FORECAST GRID IN A SNOW SHOWER SITUATION...GIVEN THE INHERENT GEOGRAPHIC UNCERTAINTIES CAUSED BY THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENTAL LOCATIONS OF THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. THAT BEING SAID...ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH WILL NOT BE A SURPRISE AT ALL...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR UP TO TWO INCHES IN THE NORTHEASTERN ILN CWA. POPS RANGE FROM 40-80 PERCENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH THESE VALUES KEPT LOWER THAN PREFERRED DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ISSUES AND FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES. THESE POP NUMBERS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED IN FUTURE FORECASTS...AS IT SEEMS QUITE CERTAIN THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL AT LEAST MEASURE A LITTLE BIT OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A FINAL NOTE ABOUT THE SNOW...A FAVORABLY-POSITIONED STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL LIKELY KEEP THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ESSENTIALLY HAS TWO SEGMENTS...THOUGH CODING PURPOSES REQUIRE IT TO BE SPLIT INTO FOUR GROUPS. FOR THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CWA (CINCINNATI/WILMINGTON/MAYSVILLE) THE ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MORNING. FOR THE EASTERN CWA (PORTSMOUTH/CHILLICOTHE/COLUMBUS) THE ADVISORY WAS CONTINUED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY...AS CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION (AND A LACK OF INSOLATION) LIMITS THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL HEATING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COLD...ESPECIALLY WITH SNOW IN PLACE...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE NOW IN THE FORECAST (DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS NUMBERS). LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO THE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...WITH A GENERALLY NEUTRAL LOW-LEVEL ADVECTION PATTERN. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY BEGINNING TO WARM ALOFT...THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY BREAK BY THE END OF THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. INTRODUCE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LINGER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ON SATURDAY WITH COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE. ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING AND CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE. THE COMBINATION LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY HOWEVER EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF MIX IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION GENERALLY EXPECT TEMPERATURE PROFILES TO BE COLD ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...OCCASIONAL SNOW OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. CIGS HAVE BUMPED UP INTO VFR AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS...BUT AN OCCASIONAL MVFR CIG AND/OR VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DUE TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOWER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/CONVERGENT BOUNDARY THAT WILL ROTATE SOUTH SOUTH EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH IFR OR LOWER VSBYS AT TIMES DUE TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. CIGS WILL ALSO DROP BACK DOWN INTO AT LEAST MVFR CATEGORY AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST HEADING INTO TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ053-060>062-070>072-077>081. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ046- 054>056-063>065-073-074-082-088. KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100. IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ058-059-066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JGL

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