Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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072 FXUS61 KILN 291456 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1056 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish this afternoon. Drier conditions are expected Sunday when the warm front is forecast to be near Lake Erie. A strong cold front accompanied by thunderstorms and gusty winds will push through early Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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MCS continues across the region. Most robust convection is moving out of the eastern counties, but plenty of stratiform lingers. This is lifting north and should continue to do so while weakening at the same time. High resolution near term guidance suggests that the forecast area will be nearly precipitation free by the end of the day. That said, until the rainfall diminishes this afternoon, there will be a flood threat given the saturated ground conditions. So extended the flash flood watch out into the afternoon. Looks like clouds will decrease across the south, but be persistent across the north. Based on this as well where temperatures approaching midday, have lowered highs, especially in northern counties.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Warm front will be north of the area near the Great Lakes tonight through Sunday. Expect only a low chance for showers and thunderstorms in this weather regime lacking deep moisture and favorable forcing. Southerly breezes in the warm sector will carry warmer temperatures, with highs in the 80s forecast for all locations. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Strong cold front extending from well stacked low pressure will move in from the west late Sunday night through Monday morning. A band of showers and thunderstorm will develop along the front and move across the area by Monday afternoon. Strong southwest winds will usher in cooler temperatures behind the cold front, with gusts reaching 40 mph Monday afternoon. For Tuesday, high pressure is forecast to bring dry weather, and gradually subsiding winds. The next low pressure system is forecast to track into the Ohio Valley Wednesday and Thursday, producing the likelihood for showers. Shower chances will linger Friday under an upper trough following the surface low. Expected conditions at the surface and aloft point to a cooling trend. Near normal highs in the upper 60s Monday will slip to the lower 60s by Friday under cold advection, clouds and precip. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Slow moving front is the focus for thunderstorms that will continue to impact TAF sites with less than ideal flight conditions. Improvement to VFR is expected by noon at southern sites as the front lifts to Northern Ohio, carrying thunderstorms with it. MVFR conditions accompanying the thunderstorms will tend to persist until late afternoon at northern sites closer to the front. Wind direction will vary with frontal movement, with east winds becoming south by the end of the forecast. VFR should prevail late in the forecast as drier air arrives in the warm sector. South winds will gust over 20 knots at CVG near the end of their 30 hour TAF. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities with thunderstorms are possible Sunday night and Monday. Wind gusts to 35 kt possible Sunday into Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for OHZ042- 051>055-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for KYZ089>097. IN...Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for INZ050-058- 059-066-073>075-080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Coniglio

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